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Search results for: DEVELOPMENT FORECASTS
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Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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Net electricity production by fuel (2006-2030)
Open Research DataThis dataset presents the current structure of electricity sources and a forecast of the share of individual fuels in electricity production in Poland until 2030. First of all, it should be noted the constantly growing supply of electricity. It is related to the continuous economic development, increasing consumption both by enterprises and households.
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Zastosowanie analiz i prognoz ruchu w programowaniu, planowaniu i projektowaniu inwestycji transportowych
PublicationW artykule zostanie przedstawiona charakterystyka procesu planowania i realizacji inwestycji transportowych ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem roli analiz i prognoz ruchu. Przedstawione fazy planowania, projektowania i realizacji inwestycji transportowych omówiono na przykładach wielu inwestycji prowadzonych w ostatnich latach na obszarze miasta Gdańska i województwa pomorskiego. Szczególną uwagę poświęcono roli analiz i prognoz ruchu...
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Upper Limb Bionic Orthoses: General Overview and Forecasting Changes
PublicationUsing robotics in modern medicine is slowly becoming a common practice. However, there are still important life science fields which are currently devoid of such advanced technology. A noteworthy example of a life sciences field which would benefit from process automation and advanced robotic technology is rehabilitation of the upper limb with the use of an orthosis. Here, we present the state-of-the-art and prospects for development...
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ROAD SAFETY MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR COUNTRY STRATEGIC LEVEL
PublicationStrategic road safety programmes setting out long-term visions and road infrastructure development plans must be based on road safety forecasts and an understanding of the long-term impact of different measures on road safety. The objective of this paper is to discuss a concept of road safety management for an area of a selected country because there are no simple tools of road safety management for the development and implementation...
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Recycling of photovoltaic modules - legal status, technology, market prospects
PublicationThe increase in the number of manufactured and installed photovoltaic modules and the growing concern about the insufficient supply of pure silicon imply the need to take action to develop infrastructure for recycling PV modules. The article presents a multifaceted analysis of the current state of development of the photovoltaic module recycling sector from a global and national perspective. The essence of the issue was introduced...
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Safety Assessment of the Regional Warmia and Mazury Road Network Using Time-Series Analysis
PublicationWarmia and Mazury still belongs to the areas with the smallest transport accessibility in Europe. Unsatisfactory state of road infrastructure is a major barrier to the development of the regional economy, impacting negatively on the life conditions of the population. Also in terms of road safety Warmia and Mazury is one of the most endangered regions in Poland. The Police statistics show that beside a high pedestrian risk observed...
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Machine learning for the management of biochar yield and properties of biomass sources for sustainable energy
PublicationBiochar is emerging as a potential solution for biomass conversion to meet the ever increasing demand for sustainable energy. Efficient management systems are needed in order to exploit fully the potential of biochar. Modern machine learning (ML) techniques, and in particular ensemble approaches and explainable AI methods, are valuable for forecasting the properties and efficiency of biochar properly. Machine-learning-based forecasts,...
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Analiza możliwości wzrostu udziału transportu zbiorowego w wojewódzkich przewozach pasażerskich na przykładzie województwa pomorskiego
PublicationPodział zadań przewozowych pomiędzy dostępne środki transportu jest jednym z kluczowych wyzwań przy opracowaniu Planów Transportowych w regionach. Stan aktualny i prognozy prowadzone na obszarze Unii Europejskiej wskazują, że w najbliższych latach dominującym środkiem transportu pasażerskiego będzie samochód osobowy z zarysowującą się tendencją wzrostową. Dlatego bardzo istotnym działaniem przy budowie zintegrowanego systemu transportu...
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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Public Spaces - Coexistence and Participation
PublicationThe paper is an attempt to answer two questions: (1) how to develop positive social relations and citizenship among residents of cities in Poland and (2) howsuitable shaping of public space affects the activation and integration of local residents.The specificity of the post-war process of urbanization in Poland - a country traditionally agricultural - was its political dimension (forced 'nationalisation' of agriculture and industrialization...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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The European Union and Cultural, Economic and Political Development of Minority in Central and Eastern Europe
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Times Series Analysis Of Road Safety Trends At The Regional Level In Poland
PublicationThe paper presents possibility of applying a structural times series modeling with explanatory and intervention variables as a tool capable for explaining the changes in the monthly number of fatalities and seriously injured in traffic accidents. The analysis covers regional level and takes into consideration traffic accidents data of two regions: Pomorskie and Warmia-Mazury. In addition short-term forecasts for the two regions...
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Interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management based on multi-agent system
PublicationThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and the support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet. The approach integrates meteorological data and forecasts, air quality and emission monitoring, dynamic 3D simulation modelling and forecasting,...
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Integration of the Eurasian Economic Union in Comparison to European Union Integration
PublicationThe aim of the article is to show the specificity of the integration of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) on the example of the integration of the European Union (EU). The EEU is a relatively young grouping that was established in 2015 by Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation. Its creators try to give the Eurasian integration process a different...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublicationFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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Weather Routing System Architecture Using Onboard Data Collection and Route Optimisation
PublicationThis paper describes the architecture of a weather routing system consisting of two key elements: onboard monitoring and route optimiser sub-systems. The former is responsible for collecting various onboard measurements, such as current ship position or ship motion variables. These data, when gathered and processed, are then used for fine-tuning a ship model. The model, together with weather forecasts, is utilised by a multi-objective...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Is There any Demand for the Workers Aged 50+ in Poland?
PublicationThe process of ageing affects all the European Union Member States, including Poland. According to forecasts by the Central Statistical Office, in 2035, the population of Poland will decrease in relation to 2010 by more than 2 million, and the share of people aged 50+ in the total population will increase from 34.8% to 46.6% (Prognoza ludności 2009). In the context of current and projected demographic changes, a discussion is taking...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Energy Demand of Short-Range Inland Ferry with Series Hybrid Propulsion Depending on the Navigation Strategy
PublicationInterest in hybrid propulsion systems that can be used on small vessels has increased significantly in recent years. They can replace inefficient and environmentally burdensome conventional systems based on diesel engines. Hybrid propulsion has many advantages such as high energy efficiency and virtually noiseless operation, and therefore it fits well with the current trends of “green shipping” and “zero emission”. The aim of the...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublicationSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Mechanical characteristics of welded joints between different stainless steels grades
Publicationnvestigation of mechanical characteristics of welded joints is one of the most important tasks that allow determining their functional properties. Due to the very high, still rising, cost of some stainless steels it is justified, on economic grounds, welding austenitic stainless steel with steels that are corrosion-resistant like duplex ones. According to forecasts the price of...
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Model of Nutrient and Pesticide Outflow with Surface Water to Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea)
PublicationCoastal basins are particularly exposed to the adverse impact of anthropogenic stress. In many places, despite only the seasonal increase in the number of residents, progressive urbanization and associated changes in the catchment characteristics are noticeable. Puck Bay is part of the Gulf of Gdansk and belongs to the Baltic Sea. Although the area of Puck Bay is covered by the Natura 2000 Network, this has not saved it from eutrophication...
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublicationThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
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Tools for road infrastructure safety management in Poland
PublicationThe objective of road safety infrastructure management is to ensure that when roads are planned, designed, built and used road risks can be systematically identified, assessed, removed and mitigated. There are a number of approaches to road safety management. European Union Directive 2008/96/EC requires EU member states to use four basic tools of road safety infrastructure management. An overview of the methods in these countries...
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Cooperative control in production and logistics
PublicationClassical applications of control engineering and information and communication technology (ICT) in production and logistics are often done in a rigid, centralized and hierarchical way. These inflexible approaches are typically not able to cope with the complexities of the manufacturing environment, such as the instabilities, uncertainties and abrupt changes caused by internal and external disturbances, or a large number and variety...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Tools for road infrastructure safety management – Polish experiences
PublicationThe objective of road safety infrastructure management is to ensure that when roads are planned, designed, built and used road risks can be systematically identified, assessed, removed and mitigated. There are a number of approaches to road safety management. European Union Directive 2008/96/EC requires EU member states to use four basic tools of road safety infrastructure management. An overview of the methods in these countries...
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Using creative approaches for discovering biomorphic forms for appropriate human habitation in natural environments. Case study of Kashubian Lake District
PublicationThe research process consisted of studies of natural and cultural conditions of the Kashubian Lake District This is an area of exceptional natural conditions. For centuries, it has seen human habitation with respect to landscape values. Given its extensive forest cover and the lack of heterogeneity of natural conditions, the area has become an interesting inspiration for the author’s original project. The project is aimed at searching...
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Directions and Prospects for the Development of the Electric Car Market in Selected ASEAN Countries
PublicationThe purpose of this article is to present the current situation and evaluate the opportuni‐ ties for the development of the electric car market in selected Southeast Asian countries in the con‐ text of the current situation in the rest of the world. Currently, the electric car market is at an ad‐ vanced stage of development in regions such as Western Europe, the USA, and China. It should be noted, however, that the number of electric...