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Search results for: bankruptcy%20risk
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublicationW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublicationJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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AMERICAN BANKRUPTCY LAW JOURNAL
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublicationRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Financial Markets and Bankruptcy Systems: Is there a Relationship?
PublicationPurpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods...
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Bankruptcy Prediction - History, Present and Future.
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono krótką wzmiankę dotyczącą dotychczasowych badań w obszarze zagrożenia przedsiębiorstw upadłością, techniki wykorzystywane do budowy modeli prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw oraz metody stosowane w analizie porównawczej tego typu modeli.
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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THE ANALYSIS OF THE BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES EXEMPLIFIED BY THE VISEGRAD GROUP
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublicationThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublicationIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublicationW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublicationIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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Bankruptcy Law Severity for Debtors: Comparative Analysis Among Selected Countries
PublicationPurpose: The objective of this paper is to propose the new indicator of bankruptcy law severity for debtors (BLSI-Bankruptcy Law Severity Index). On the basis of this index we conducted comparative analysis of debtor/creditor friendliness of bankruptcy laws among 27 selected countries. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research the following methods were used: analysis of legal acts, literature review and expert method. Findings:...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublicationIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publicationmodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Intraday price reaction to filing bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings – the evidence from Poland
PublicationThis chapter presents the results of research on the price reaction of shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to filing bankruptcy and/or restructuring applications. Event study was adopted as the research method, and it was performed at 10, 5, and 1-minute intervals. It was found that the reaction is rapid, as it takes 1–2 minutes after the information on bankruptcy and restructuring applications was made public. Significantly...
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Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland
PublicationThis study aims to check market reaction to filing for bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings and to verify the short-term effect of a price reversal in the Polish market in the years 2004–2019. The research was conducted by dividing the analysed companies according to the procedure (bankruptcy and restructuring) and market (the main market and the NewConnect market). The research methodology used in the study is the event analysis...
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Sanctions and their role in preventing the appropriation of the creditor’s property rights in bankruptcy proceedings–the case of Poland
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to fill the cognitive gap regarding the role of sanc-tions in the protection of a creditor’s property rights in the event of an entrepreneur insolvency. The impact of sanctions on transaction costs, including their identifica-tion and types, as well as the impact on the protection of creditor rights, has been poorly recognized in the subject literature to date. This article investigates...
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The role of stakeholders on rejection of bankruptcy applications in the case of “poverty” of the estate: A Polish case study
PublicationThe aim of this article is to supplement the Law and Economics area of science with regard to the scope of the ex ante effectiveness of bankruptcy law using the example of Poland. Bankruptcy law is effective in the ex ante stage when it eliminates from the market insolvent entrepreneurs who cannot even afford to cover the costs of bankruptcy proceedings. In these cases, the bankruptcy court should dismiss the petition for bankruptcy...
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Does being socially good save firms from bankruptcy? A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis
PublicationThe purpose of the review was to find out, does being responsible saves firms from bank-ruptcy? What is the relationship between corporate social responsibility and default risk? What meth-ods and measures are used in the literature to evaluate this relationship? And what is the theoretical underpinning of the studies? Moreover, to explore what are the gaps for future work, Web of Science and Scopus databases were utilised to obtain...
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
PeopleBłażej Prusak is Head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME), as well as a member of editorial boards of such journals as Intellectual Economics; Space. Economics. Society; Academy of Management. He is the author or co-author of several scientific monographs including:...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublicationLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries (prezentacja na konferencji TWENTY-SIXTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE MULTINATIONAL FINANCE SOCIETY)
PublicationUlotka konferencyjna: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modMainContent/uploadFiles/miscFiles/1562848077-MFC2019-Booklet-for-Distribution_2019-06-25.pdf
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Studies in Risk and Sustainable Development
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
PeopleEducation Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Degree / scientific title Habilitation – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2015) Ph.D. – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2004) Employment Gdańsk University of Technology - associate professor (since 2017); assistant professor...
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Przemysław Banasik dr hab.
Peoplee-mail: Przemyslaw.Banasik@zie.pg.edu.pl, pba@zie.pg.gda.pl tel.: +48 58 347 28 75, pok. 510dr hab. Przemysław Banasik, prof. PG – autor ponad 140 publikacji z prawa, zarządzania i ekonomii. W pracy naukowej podejmuje badania nad organizacją wymiaru sprawiedliwości oraz przedsiębiorczością w jej ujęciu prawnym, ekonomicznym i zarządczym. Od 2017 r. Sędzia Sądu Apelacyjnego w Gdańsku. W latach 2013 – 2017 Prezes Sądu...
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Changes in the number of commercial banks in 1992-2004
Open Research DataAs the data shows, it can be concluded that the number of banks in Poland is small. The main reason for the declining number of banks is bank acquisitions by foreign investors or bank consolidation. To a lesser extent, this change resulted from negative factors such as bankruptcy or liquidation.
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Piotr Figura dr inż.
PeoplePiotr Figura is employed as an assistant professor at the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology. He is a member of Commission for the Verification of Learning Outcomes, as well as an academic reviewer of the Central Exemination Booard. He is the author or co-author of several scientific monographs including: Standard financial indicators for stock enterprises; Classical...
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Clinical Risk
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Radiation and Risk
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Journal of Risk
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RISK ANALYSIS
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Number of commercial banks at the end of the year, excluding banks that are not operating, bankrupt or liquidated, and banks in organization in 1993-2004
Open Research DataPolish banks were gradually transformed from enterprises with a predominance of Polish private capital into banks with a majority share of private foreign capital. In 1993, there were 48 banks with a majority of Polish private capital, and in 2006 there were 7 of them. In 1993, the shares of 10 banks in Poland were owned by private foreign capital,...
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Trans-Risk - An Integrated Method for Risk Management in Transport
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Short-term Price Reaction to Involuntary Bankruptcies Filed in Bad Faith: Empirical Evidence from Poland
PublicationPurpose: Assessing the reaction of the prices of shares of companies listed in the Warsaw Stock Exchange to the public disclosure of information about the filing a bankruptcy petition in bad faith by creditors. Design/Methodology/Approach: Event study analysis. Findings: It can therefore be assumed that the filing of an unfounded bankruptcy petition does not, in the short term, have a statistically significant negative impact on...
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublicationRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
PeopleMichal Pietrzak is head of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Gdańsk University of Technology, and Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Statistical Reviewing of the journals: Oeconomia Copernicana and Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Until October 2021, he worked as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, Nicolaus...
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Ttrans-risk - an integrated method for risk management in transport =Trans-risk - zintegrowana metoda zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie
PublicationPodjęto już wiele prób integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w innych dziedzinach życia. Przegląd metod zarządzania ryzykiem w poszczególnych gałęziach transportu wskazuje na dość duże rozbieżności terminologiczne i dotyczące szczegółowych zasad i zastosowań metod zarządzania ryzykiem. Istnieje zatem konieczność podjęcia próby integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie. Niniejsza praca jest wynikiem działań interdyscyplinarnego...
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THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE INSURANCE RISK
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Smoking and cardiovascular risk
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OCCUPATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE RISK SCORE METHOD DURING GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS
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