Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case

Oleksandr Melnychenko; Tetiana Osadcha; Anatoliy Kovalyov; Valerii Matskul

doi:10.2478/remav-2022-0027

Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case

Abstrakt

The study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in Poland’s eight largest cities in the 2009-2021 period was studied. This price was modeled and predicted using one of the Box-Jenkins time series models: the Holt-Winter model of exponential smoothing with a damped trend. The forecasting results showed a small (up to 4%) relative error in comparison with the actual data. In addition, the moment (2017) of the price trend change was found. Therefore, piecewise linear regressions with high regression coefficients were used when modeling the impact of inflation changes on the real estate market indicators under consideration. The results obtained provide valuable insight into the relationship of real estate market indicators, allowing consumers to predict available options and make decisions in accordance with their preferences.

Cytowania

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Autorzy (4)

Oleksandr Melnychenko dr hab.
Tetiana Osadcha
Anatoliy Kovalyov
Valerii Matskul

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Pełna treść

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pobrano 122 razy

Wersja publikacji: Accepted albo Published Version
DOI:: Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.2478/remav-2022-0027
Licencja: otwiera się w nowej karcie

pełna treść artykułu zobacz w serwisie zewnętrznym otwiera się w nowej karcie

Słowa kluczowe

REAL ESTATE, HOUSING, INFLATION, POLAND

Informacje szczegółowe

Kategoria:

Publikacja w czasopiśmie

Typ:

artykuły w czasopismach

Opublikowano w:

Real Estate Management and Valuation nr 30, strony 25 - 41,
ISSN: 1733-2478

Język:

angielski

Rok wydania:

2022

Opis bibliograficzny:

Melnychenko O., Osadcha T., Kovalyov A., Matskul V.: Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case// Real Estate Management and Valuation -Vol. 30,iss. 4 (2022), s.25-41

DOI: