Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?

Magdalena Szyszko; Karolina Tura-Gawron

doi:10.2298/pan171128014s

Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?

Abstrakt

We compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire Eurozone. Inflation expectations were obtained from the Business and Consumer Surveys conducted by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission and quantified using the probabilistic method. The methodology covers: (1) forecast encompassing tests, (2) the Granger causality test, and (3) impulse response analysis complemented by (4) forecast error variance decomposition. The results suggest that the ECB outlook constitutes a more important factor in expectation formation. This article adds to the existing literature by comparing the impact of common and national projections on consumer expectations.

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Autorzy (2)

Magdalena Szyszko dr
Karolina Tura-Gawron dr

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Wersja publikacji: Accepted albo Published Version
Licencja: otwiera się w nowej karcie

Słowa kluczowe

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION PROJECTIONS, EXPECTATION SURVEYS

Informacje szczegółowe

Kategoria:: Publikacja w czasopiśmie
Typ:: artykuły w czasopismach
Opublikowano w:: PANOECONOMICUS nr 68, strony 53 - 76,
ISSN: 1452-595X
Język:: angielski
Rok wydania:: 2021
Opis bibliograficzny:: Szyszko M., Tura-Gawron K.: Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?// PANOECONOMICUS -Vol. 68,iss. 1 (2021), s.53-76
DOI:: Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.2298/pan171128014s
Weryfikacja:: Politechnika Gdańska