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GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: THE CHICKEN OR THE EGG?

Abstrakt

The objective of this study is to test empirically the relationship between structural changes (changes in gross value added and employment) and economic growth. We used a panel Granger-causality analysis based on annual data for eight transition countries, covering the period 1995–2011. The main finding is that the causality relations analysed are heterogeneous processes and are identified more often when we measure structural changes by value added than by changes in employment. Among the countries analysed, we separate a subgroup of economies with very strong bilateral causality (small countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia), a subgroup in which no causal relationships are observed (e.g., Hungary in the case of employment), and a group with a one-directional relationship (e.g., Poland, where GDP changes cause employment changes, but not vice versa). The research results point to the necessity of taking into account different relationships, whether one- or two-directional, between growth and structural changes in government economic policy. The paper presents a verifiable methodology, which was originally used to identify the analysed relationship in transition countries.

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Kategoria:
Publikacja w czasopiśmie
Typ:
artykuł w czasopiśmie wyróżnionym w JCR
Opublikowano w:
Journal of Business Economics and Management nr 19, wydanie 3, strony 544 - 565,
ISSN: 1611-1699
Język:
angielski
Rok wydania:
2018
Opis bibliograficzny:
Olczyk M., Kordalska A.: GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: THE CHICKEN OR THE EGG?// Journal of Business Economics and Management. -Vol. 19, iss. 3 (2018), s.544-565
DOI:
Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.3846/jbem.2018.6580
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  76. MLI -modified Lilien index; otwiera się w nowej karcie
  77. RMSE -root mean squared error; otwiera się w nowej karcie
  78. RSS -residual sum of squares; otwiera się w nowej karcie
  79. SCI -structural change index; otwiera się w nowej karcie
  80. VAR -vector autoregressive model; otwiera się w nowej karcie
  81. WIOD -World Input-Output Database. otwiera się w nowej karcie
Weryfikacja:
Politechnika Gdańska

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