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Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study

Abstrakt

This paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed into a block representation in which blocks for the probability of a collision, probability of a grounding event, and the consequences of an accident are linked. The probability of vessel colliding is assessed in terms of a minimum-distance-to-collision-based model. The model defines the collision zone using a mathematical ship motion model and considers the traffic flow to be a non-homogeneous process. Calculations are performed using data for traffic flows in the Gulf of Finland with particular attention being paid to the crossing of the channel used by scheduled ferries between Helsinki and Tallinn, and the main shipping channel. For the assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a gravity-like model, where a ship and navigational obstructions are perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion is modelled by a formulation inspired by gravitational force. The considered situation in this case is the movement of oil tankers in the approach channel to an oil terminal at Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern the costs of cleaning up an oil spill, based on the statistics of compensation levels claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund.

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Kategoria:
Publikacja w czasopiśmie
Typ:
artykuły w czasopismach
Opublikowano w:
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability nr 225, strony 307 - 322,
ISSN: 1748-006X
Język:
angielski
Rok wydania:
2011
Opis bibliograficzny:
Montewka J., Krata P., Goerlandt F., Mazaheri A., Kujala P.: Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study// Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability -Vol. 3, (2011),
DOI:
Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.1177/1748006x11399988
Weryfikacja:
Politechnika Gdańska

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