Abstrakt

Regarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the current dynamic world and the linkages between all the financial and economical markets around the world make necessary to continuously research for the new methods of bankruptcy prediction. The purpose of this article is to analyze the usage of innovative method - fuzzy logic system in predicting bankruptcy for one year, two and three years before the failure of companies. Additional unique feature of this article is the use of macroeconomic variables in the predicting process. Authors aimed to verify the effectiveness of created fuzzy logic models with the use of not only financial ratios, but also the macroeconomic indicators. To conduct this research authors have used financial statements of 132 stock equity companies (25 bankrupt and 107 nonbankrupt). This research proves high bankruptcy forecasting predispositions of the used method. Presented models in the article distinguish with high effectiveness of predicting the bankruptcy among accessible results in the world literature.Artykuł ten dotyczy prognozowania upadłości firm działających w Unii Europejskiej. Na podstawie 132 przedsiębiorstw został opracowany i przetestowany model sztucznej inteligencji prognozowania bankructwa firm przy wykorzystaniu zmiennych mikro i makroekonomicznych.

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