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wszystkich: 143
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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
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Using Probabilistic Availability Measures for Predicting Targeted Attacks on Network Nodes
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Network Protection Against Node Attacks Based on Probabilistic Availability Measures
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Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of a Baltic Cliff by the Combined Response Surface Method
PublikacjaA simple, straightforward computational procedure was proposed, incorporating the Response Surface Method (RSM) linked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method and the Point Estimate Method (PEM). PEM samples make it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the cliff’s stability to variation in subsoil parameters and to reduce the number of random variables of the problem. The proposed methods were tested in two cases:...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublikacjaIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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The point estimate method in a reticulated shell reliability analysis
PublikacjaThe objective of this paper is to present an application of the point estimate method (PEM) that can determine the probabilistic moments for engineering structures. The method is reasonably robust and adequately accurate for a wide range of practical problems. It is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials. The main advantage of this method is that, unlike FORM or SORM, it is not necessary to carry...
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Statistic and probabilistic measures of diagnosis likelohood on the state of self-ignition combustion engines
PublikacjaW artykule zaproponowano, aby wiarygodność diagnozy o stanie technicznym silników o zapłonie samoczynnym była rozpatrywana jako losowa cecha tej diagnozy. Wykazano możliwość oceny wiarygodności diagnozy za pomocą liczb rzeczywistych z przedziału [0, 1]. Uzasadniono potrzebę rozróżniania wiarygodności diagnozy i trafności diagnozy. Wyprowadzono wzór na prawdopodobieństwo sformułowania prawidłowej diagnozy jako miary wiarygodności...
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Concept for interpretation and assessment of slide bearings operation in Diesel enfines in probabilistic approach
PublikacjaW artykule zaproponowano interpretację wartościującą działania, które (podobnie jak przedstawione w mechanice klasycznej działania Hamiltona i Maupertiusa oraz działanie wynikające ze zmiany pędu ciała) jest rozpatrywane jako wielkość fizyczna o jednostce miary zwanej''dżulosekundą''. Przedstawiono propozycję ilościowej interpretacji działania dowolnego poprzecznego łożyska ślizgowego, w którym zachodzą oddziaływania energetyczne...
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Risk characterisation of the required index R in the new probabilistic rules for damage stability
PublikacjaWymagany wskaźnik podziału grodziowego R jest miarą bezpieczeństwa statku w wypadku kolizji. Zwykle wyznacza się go w oparciu o wskaźniki dla wybranych, istniejących statków. W pracy podano jak ustalić ten wskaźnik w oparciu o dane dotyczące kolizji (wypadkowości) statków.
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Probabilistic concept of defining the situations possible to occur during operation of floating docks
PublikacjaW artykule zasygnalizowana została możliwość oszacowania bezpieczeństwa doków pływajacych, w wyniku zastosowania teorii procesów semimarkowskich, zarówno w fazie projektowania jak też eksploatacji. Przedstawiono opis formalny sytuacji, jakie mogą zaistnieć podczas funkcjonowania (działania) doków pływających, zarówno budowlanych jak również remontowych. Wyróżniono takie sytuacje jak: normalna, skomplikowana, niebezpieczna, awaryjna...
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Probabilistic Sequence Mining – Evaluation and Extension of ProMFS Algorithm for Real-Time Problems
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Sensitivity analysis of simple random beam models by means of Monte Carlo Methods using Variance Reductions Techniques
PublikacjaA probabilistic sensitivity analysis of two nonlinear bar structures is presented. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the Monte Carlo method. The imperfections of the structures and the applied loads are adapted as random variables. Based on all of the generated input variables, an output response of the system is sought. Afterwards, a coefficient responsible for the structure failure is calculated and the limit state...
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Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland
PublikacjaOn the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role...
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Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: a probabilistic approach
PublikacjaThis paper presents a probabilistic methodology that allows the study of the interactions between changes in rainfall dynamics and impervious areas in urban catchment on a long- and short-term basis. The proposed probabilistic model predict future storm overflows while taking into account the dynamics of changes in impervious areas and rainfall. In this model, a logistic regression method was used to simulate overflow resulting...
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE REHABILITATION OF HISTORIC TIMBER STRUCTURES ON THE EXAMPLES OF GREEK CATHOLIC CHURCHES IN POLISH SUBCARPATHIA
PublikacjaThis work concerns structural and sensitivity analysis of carpentry joints used in historic wooden buildings in south-eastern Poland and western Ukraine. These are primarily sacred buildings and the types of joints characteristic for this region are saddle notch and dovetail joints. Thus, in the study the authors focus on these types of corner log joints. Numerical models of the joints are defined and finite element simulations...
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Basic sensitivity analysis of a telecommunication tower complementing standard reinforcement design process
PublikacjaThis paper presents straightforward sensitivity assessment of a telecommunication tower. The analysis is set toidentify the elements of the tower which may be reinforced with the greatest structural advantage. As current expertopin ions on structural redesign of similar structures due to a planned addition of extra loads are mainly based ondeterministic computations or engineering intuition,...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublikacjaThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Current issues of functional safety and cybersecurity analysis of the industrial and critical infrastructures
PublikacjaThis article addresses some functional safety assessment procedures with cybersecurity aspects in critical industrial installations with regard to the functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The functional safety management includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on the risk assessment...
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Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Analysis and Management in Smart Manufacturing Systems
PublikacjaThis chapter addresses some of the issues of the integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management with regard to selected references and the functional safety standards: IEC 61508, IEC 61511, ISO 13849-1 and IEC 62061, and a cybersecurity standard IEC 62443 that concerns the industrial automation and control systems. The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial systems that include the information...
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A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland
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A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship–ship collision
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Functional safety analysis including human factors
PublikacjaThe article addresses selected aspects of human factors that should be taken into account during the design of safety-related functions for a complex hazardous installation and its protections. In such installations the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) methodology is often used for simplified risk analysis based on defined accident scenarios. To control the risk the safety instrumented functions (SIFs) are identified and their...
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Reliability estimation of underground horizontal fuel tank limit states
PublikacjaFuel tanks are designed with regard to standard loads and operating conditions. The investigations of the paper show the impact of such factors as tank corrosion and other means on the variation of stress fields and deformation of the underground horizontal tank shell. The introduction of probabilistic methods allows for structural reliability assessment. While the computational time of the entire tank FEM model is high, the preliminary...
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Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder highway bridges with unequal-height piers subjected to earthquake-induced pounding
PublikacjaThis paper uses the probabilistic seismic assessment to study the effects of pounding and irregularity on the seismic behavior of typical concrete box-girder bridges with four levels of altitudinal irregularity. To extend the results for all bridges in the same class, uncertainty related to the earthquake, structural geometries, and materials are considered. Pounding is likely to take place in two cases: the first one concerns...
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A probabilistic concept of assessment of amount of noxious substances contained in exhaust gas emitted from self-ignition engines
PublikacjaPrzedstawiono probabilistyczną koncepcję oceny toksyczności spalin silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Ocena taka jest istotna, ponieważ bez niej nie jest możliwe określenie walorów proekologicznych różnych środków transportowych z napędem spalinowym, w tym śródlądowych statków pasażerskich. W koncepcji tej uwzględniony został model procesu rozruchu silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Model ten przedstawiono w formie procesu semimarkowskiego,...
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Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas
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Sensitivity analysis based on non-intrusive regression-based polynomial chaos expansion for surgical mesh modelling
PublikacjaThe modelling of a system containing implants used in ventral hernia repair and human tissue suffers from many uncertainties. Thus, a probabilistic approach is needed. The goal of this study is to define an efficient numerical method to solve non-linear biomechanical models supporting the surgeon in decisions about ventral hernia repair. The model parameters are subject to substantial variability owing to, e.g., abdominal wall...
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS OF APPLICATION OF MARKOV AND SEMI-MARKOV PROCESSES TO RELIABILITY MODELS OF MULTI-STATE TECHNICAL OBJECTS
PublikacjaDuring rational operation of technical objects and systems various operational decisions are made and decision-making process itself should be consisted in selecting that considered most favourable out of all possible to be taken. Choice of such decision is possible after taking into account many different information items but it never be completely correct without accounting for data and indices dealing with reliability. In...
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Spatial distribution and correlations among elements in smaller than 75 μm street dust: ecological and probabilistic health risk assessment
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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Average Size of a Suffix Tree for Markov Sources
PublikacjaWe study a suffix tree built from a sequence generated by a Markovian source. Such sources are more realistic probabilistic models for text generation, data compression, molecular applications, and so forth. We prove that the average size of such a suffix tree is asymptotically equivalent to the average size of a trie built over n independentsequences from the same Markovian source. This equivalenceis only known for memoryless...
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Optimizing Construction Engineering Management Using Metaheuristic Methods and Bayesian Networks
PublikacjaThe construction of buildings invariably involves time and costs, and disruptions impact ongoing construction projects. Crisis situations in management strategies, structural confusion, and finan-cial miscalculations often arise due to misguided decision-making. This article proposes a method that combines the learning of Bayesian Networks and heuristic techniques to optimize deci-sion-making processes in construction scheduling....
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublikacjaThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublikacjaThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Wrażliwość probabilistyczna stanów granicznych konstrukcji - metoda Monte Carlo
PublikacjaPraca ukazuje zastosowanie metody symulacyjnej Monte Carlo w analizie losowej konstrukcji inżynierskich. Systematyka metod losowych obejmuje ich trzy poziomy, z zaznaczeniem poziomu trzeciego, o dowolnych typach zmiennych losowych – zmiennych podstawowych problemu. Ukazano przykład modelowana losowego obciążenia wiatrem na podstawie 10-letnich pomiarów prędkości wiatru, wykazując zgodność zbioru danych z rozkładem ekstremów Gumbela....
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Safety integrity level verification for safety-related functions with security aspects
PublikacjaThe article is devoted some important issues of the functional safety analysis, in particular the safetyintegrity level (SIL) verification of safety functions to be implemented within the distributed controland protection systems with regard to cyber security aspects. The procedure for functional safety man-agement includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safetyrequirements and definition...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublikacjaW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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IDENTIFICATION OF DAMAGES OF TRIBOLOGICAL ASSOCIATIONS IN CRANKSHAFT AND PISTON SYSTEMS OF TWO-STROKE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES USED AS MAIN PROPULSION IN SEA-GOING VESSELS AND PROPOSAL OF PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTION OF LOADS AS CAUSES OF THESE DAMAGES
PublikacjaThe article discusses damages of essential tribological associations in crankshaft and piston systems of large power two-stroke engines used as main engines, which take place during transport tasks performed by those ships. Difficulties are named which make preventing those damages impossible, despite the fact that the technical state of engines of this type is identified with the aid of complex diagnostic systems making use of...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublikacjaThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublikacjaThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Motion Trajectory Prediction in Warehouse Management Systems: A Systematic Literature Review
PublikacjaBackground: In the context of Warehouse Management Systems, knowledge related to motion trajectory prediction methods utilizing machine learning techniques seems to be scattered and fragmented. Objective: This study seeks to fill this research gap by using a systematic literature review approach. Methods: Based on the data collected from Google Scholar, a systematic literature review was performed, covering the period from 2016...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublikacjaWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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Brief Literature Review and Classification System of Reliability Methods for Evaluating the Stability of Earth Slopes
PublikacjaThe issue of slope stability is one of the most important and yet most difficult geotechnical problems. Assessing slope stability is particularly difficult because of the many uncertainties involved in the process. To take these uncertainties into account, probabilistic methods are used, and the reliability approach is adopted. There are many methods for reliability assessment of earth slope stability. However, there is no system...
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublikacjaThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Demonstrator testera wbudowanego BIST dla układów w pełni różnicowych
PublikacjaPrzedstawiono demonstrator testera wbudowanego, przeznaczony do pracy na stanowisku dydaktycznym w laboratorium z przedmiotu Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne. Na stanowisku studenci zapoznają się z technologią BIST (ang. Built-In Self-Test), która jest przykładem wdrożenia strategii projektowania dla testowania.
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Diagnostic Model of Crankshaft Seals
PublikacjaT he paper presents a research stand being a diagnostic model of radial lip seals used, among others, on crankshafts of piston combustion engines in order to identify the correctness of their operation. The possibility of determining the technical condition of lip seals on the basis of the proposed coefficient of correctness of operation has been described. T he basic features of seals influencing their correctness of...
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Justification of models of changing project environment for harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops
PublikacjaAn analysis of the condition of implementation of projects in agricultural production is carried out. The disadvantages of existing methods and models of planning of the content and time of execution of works in the projects, which mostly do not take into account the changing components of their project environment, are substantiated. The proposed methodology for justifying the models of a changing project environment for harvesting...
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The Effect of the Selection of Three-Dimensional Random Numerical Soil Models on Strip Foundation Settlements
PublikacjaThis paper delivers a probabilistic attempt to prove that the selection of a random three-dimensional finite element (FE) model of a subsoil affects the computed settlements. Parametricanalysis of a random soil block is conducted, assuming a variable subsoil Young’s modulus inparticular finite elements. The modulus is represented by a random field or different-sized setsof random variables; in both cases, the same truncated...
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Managing safety of industrial hazardous installations with emphasis on the control systems, interfaces and human factors
PublikacjaIn the paper a procedure for the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) as a tool to evaluate the risk of accident scenarios occurrence in hazardous installations is outlined. In such installations several protection layers exist. Human operator performance in each layer is unavoidable, but the role and tasks are different and depend on the context of situation. Based on suggestions form literature (EEMUA, CREAM) and own proposals...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublikacjaA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Integrity level verification for safety-related functions
PublikacjaThis article describes methods for safety integrity level (SIL) verification of safety-related functions with regard to probabilistic criteria given international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. These functions are to be realized using the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE) systems or safety instrumented systems (SIS). Some methods are proposed for quantitative probabilistic modelling taking into account...