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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: energy forecasting
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublikacjaDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublikacjaElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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Seasonal meat stock demand used comparison of performance smoothing-average forecasting
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News that Moves the Market: DSEX-News Dataset for Forecasting DSE Using BERT
PublikacjaStock market is a complex and dynamic industry that has always presented challenges for stakeholders and investors due to its unpredictable nature. This unpredictability motivates the need for more accurate prediction models. Traditional prediction models have limitations in handling the dynamic nature of the stock market. Additionally, previous methods have used less relevant data, leading to suboptimal performance. This study...
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Application of time-series-cross-section data in case of sale forecasting in an enterprise
PublikacjaW artykule wskazano możliwości wykorzystania danych przestrzenno-czasowych do prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. Przedstawiono różne podejścia do prognozowania ekonometrycznego przy użyciu tego typu danych. Wyznaczono krótkookresowe prognozy sprzedaży benzyny bezołowiowej Pb95 w przekroju województw oraz dokonano oceny ich jakości przy użyciu mierników ex-post. Dwie najdokładniejsze metody prognozowania wykorzystano do...
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A Proposed Machine Learning Model for Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublikacjaTraffic-induced vibrations may cause various damages to buildings located near the road, including cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real buildings are costly and laborious. Therefore the aim of the research is to propose the original numerical algorithm which allows us to predict, with high probability, the nega-tive dynamic impact of traffic-induced...
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Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublikacjaEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...
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A unified approach to the analysis of electric energy and fuel consumption of cars in city traffic
PublikacjaForecasting fuel and electricity consumption is an important factor determining the direction of changes in road engineering solutions, traffic management, selection of routes for public transport and development more efficient car drive systems. With a reliable and easy-to-use computational tool, it is possible to reduce the consumption of primary energy sources and reduce the emission of toxic compounds in cities. An analysis...
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The Dilemmas of Choosing a Suitable Technology for Low Energy and Passive Houses in the Context of their Overheating Issues
PublikacjaIn compliance with European Union directives, numerous countries are introducing increasingly stricter legal limits on the estimated energy consumption of newly designed residential buildings. However, the fact, that regulations and designers' efforts are focused on decreasing energy consumption (and consequently carbon dioxide emissions) only at the post-occupancy stage, may lead to a significant increase in the carbon footprint...
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Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting the Churn Phenomena Among Costumers of IT and Power Supply Services
PublikacjaThis paper presents an attempt to use an artificial neural network to investigate the churn phenomenon among the customers of a telecommunications operator. An attempt was made to create a data model based on the customer lifetime value (CLV) rather than on activity alone. A multilayered artificial neural network was used for the experiments. The results yielded a 99% successful identification rate for customers in no danger of...
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Interactive visualization of marine pollution monitoring and forecasting data via a Web-based GIS
PublikacjaArtykuł prezentuje zastosowanie sieciowego Systemu Informacji Geograficznej do monitoringu i prezentacji wyników modelowania plam ropy na morzu. Omawiany system wykorzystuje technologie ESRI ArcIMS (Arc Internet Map Server) oraz Open Source GeoServer z biblioteką klienta OpenLayers w celu wizualizacji i mapowania rozprzestrzeniania się wycieku ropy w dwóch wybranych obszarach Morza Egejskiego w Grecji. Przedstawiony GIS stanowi...
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Forecasting values of cutting power for the sawing process of impregnated pine wood on band sawing machine
PublikacjaW artykule przedstawiono prognozowane wartości mocy skrawania dla pilarki taśmowej (ST100R firmy STENNER), które są stosowane w polskich tartakach. Wartości mocy skrawania oszacowano dla drewna sosny zwyczajnej (Pinus sylvestris L.), które zostało poddane impregnacji. Dla porównania wyznaczono również wartości mocy skrawania dla drewna niezaimpregnowanego. Wartości te określono za pomocą innowacyjnej metody prognozowania sił skrawania,...
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Knowledge Transfer Platform FindFISH – Numerical Forecasting System for the Marine Environment of the Gulf of Gdańsk for Fisheries
PublikacjaFast access to expert knowledge is very valuable, especially in the context of decision-making. Fishermen can use this knowledge to diagnose hydrological and hydrochemical conditions in which fish stocks should be the most abundant. In response to this need, a digital service has been developed. It is a service created within the FindFISH project, which pro- vides the results of all developed models: hydrodynamic, biochemical,...
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Stormwater and snowmelt runoff storage control and flash flood hazard forecasting in the urbanized coastal basin.
PublikacjaCity of Gdańsk is located in a coastal region where changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Developing urbanization affects the hydrology of natural basins by simplification of the drainage system and reduction of infiltration and base flow. Consequently greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems, reservoirs and surrounding water bodies. Not only infrastructures of urban...
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CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublikacjaIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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The Effectiveness of Catching Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Noctuinae) (= Agrotinae) in Pheromone Traps and Light Traps, for Short-Term Forecasting
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublikacjaTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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Bi-GRU-APSO: Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit with Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Sales Forecasting in Multi-Channel Retail
PublikacjaIn the present scenario, retail sales forecasting has a great significance in E-commerce companies. The precise retail sales forecasting enhances the business decision making, storage management, and product sales. Inaccurate retail sales forecasting can decrease customer satisfaction, inventory shortages, product backlog, and unsatisfied customer demands. In order to obtain a better retail sales forecasting, deep learning models...
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The methodology for determining of the value of cutting power for cross cutting on optimizing sawing machine
PublikacjaIn the article the methodology of forecasting the energy effects of the cross-cutting process using the classical method, which takes into account the specific cutting resistance, is presented. The values of cutting power for the cross-cutting process of two types of wood (softwood and hardwood) were forecasted for the optimizing sawing machine with using presented methodology. The cross-cutting process with high values of feed...
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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
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GeoSPAR Project. Validation and selection methods of geoinformation analysis using GIS for ranking and forecasting of terrorist threats and criminal events
PublikacjaThe paper presents the description of work activities which have already been done within the first two stages – WorkPackage 1 and WorkPackage 2 - of the GeoSPAR Project. In such a context the general conceptual design of the GIS system and associate web service was presented and analysed. In addition, the operational and technical requirements for the GeoSPAR system have been specified and discussed; with special emphasis on system...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
OsobyMichał Bernard Pietrzak jest kierownikiem Katedry Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz zastępcą redaktora naczelnego ds. oceny pod względem poprawności statystycznej czasopism: Oeconomia Copernicana i Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Do października 2021 pracował na stanowisku profesora nadzwyczajnego na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania,...
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Areas of Updraft Air Motion in an Idealised Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Different Floe Size Distributions
PublikacjaPresented dataset is part of a numerical modelling study focusing on the analysis of the influence of sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) on the horizontal and vertical structure of convection in the atmosphere. The total area and spatial arrangement of the up-drafts indicates that the FSD affects the total moisture content and the values of area averaged turbulent fluxes in the model domain. In fact, while convective updrafts...
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Detection of Anomalies in the Operation of a Road Lighting System Based on Data from Smart Electricity Meters
PublikacjaSmart meters in road lighting systems create new opportunities for automatic diagnostics of undesirable phenomena such as lamp failures, schedule deviations, or energy theft from the power grid. Such a solution fits into the smart cities concept, where an adaptive lighting system creates new challenges with respect to the monitoring function. This article presents research results indicating the practical feasibility of real‐time...
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Nature-Inspired Driven Deep-AI Algorithms for Wind Speed Prediction
PublikacjaPredicting wind energy production accurately is crucial for enhancing grid management and dispatching capacity. However, the inherent unpredictability of wind speed poses significant challenges to achieving high prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, this study introduces a novel pre-processing framework that leverages thirteen nature-inspired optimization algorithms to extract and combine Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs)...
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Improving the efficiency of street lighting electrical systems
PublikacjaTo derive mathematical expressions that, using the available information, will allow forecasting the levels of electricity consumption by the city’s outdoor lighting network in the main possible scenarios for several years ahead, as well as when developing an energy-efficient smart control system for the electro-complex of lighting complex. Creating an effective intelligent outdoor lighting control system involves the use of the...
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Improving the prediction of biochar production from various biomass sources through the implementation of eXplainable machine learning approaches
PublikacjaExamining the game-changing possibilities of explainable machine learning techniques, this study explores the fast-growing area of biochar production prediction. The paper demonstrates how recent advances in sensitivity analysis methodology, optimization of training hyperparameters, and state-of-the-art ensemble techniques have greatly simplified and enhanced the forecasting of biochar output and composition from various biomass...
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Skuteczne prognozowanie krótkoterminowe mocy farm wiatrowych
PublikacjaPrognozowanie mocy wytwórczej konkretnej farmy wiatrowej (FW) w horyzoncie 24-godzinnymwymaga zarówno wiarygodnej prognozy wietrzności, jak i narzędzi wspomagających. Narzędzie to jest dedykowanym modelem mocy farmy. Model powinien uwzględniać nie tylko ogólne zasady przetwarzania energii wiatru na energię mechaniczną, ale także cechy szczególnekonkretnej farmy. Liczba czynników wpływających na moc farmy jest duża i dokładna prognozamocy,...
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Metoda obliczania skutków wdrożenia strategii zarządzania popytem na energię elektryczną (DSM/DSR) w systemach elektroenergetycznych
PublikacjaW niniejszej rozprawie poruszono zagadnienie strategii zarządzania popytem na energię elektryczną (DSM/DSR) i sposobów obliczania efektów ich wdrożenia. W związku z tym opisano oczekiwane efekty wdrożenia tych rozwiązań oraz ich zalety i wady. Zaprezentowano i przeanalizowano istniejące już metody obliczania skutków wdrożenia DSM/DSR. Zaproponowano nową metodę, która poprzez formę algorytmu uporządkowuje proces obliczania i oceny...
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Multi-level models of transport systems for traffic management
PublikacjaThe region of Pomorskie uses a variety of tools for forecasting and analysing transport. They can be operated, calibrated and updated with data that will be collected and stored in the TRISTAR system. An initiative of the Department of Highway Engineering of the Gdansk University of Technology is designed to develop and implement an integrated and hierarchical system for forecasting and analysing transport called MST (Multilevel...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Modelling fatalities on regional road networks
PublikacjaDuring the last decade Poland’s road fatalities went down by 44%. The trend differs from region to region. Effective road safetymanagement in regions requires tools for forecasting road safety measures and identifying factors influencing road fatality numbers. Mathematical models can provide such tools. They take into account local characteristics such as: demography, economy, infrastructure and motorization. Such models could...
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Applying Fuzzy Logic of Expert Knowledge for Accurate Predictive Algorithms of Customer Traffic Flows in Theme Parks
PublikacjaThis study analyzes two forecasting models based on the application of fuzzy logic and evaluates their effectiveness in predicting visitor expenditure and length of stay at a popular theme park. The forecasting models are based on a set of more than 600 decision rules constructed in the form of a complex series of IF-THEN statements. These algorithms store expert knowledge. A descriptive instrument that records the individual visitor's...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Adaptive prediction of stock exchange indices by state space wavelet networks
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index WIG20 by applying a state space wavelet network model of the index price. The approach can be applied to the development of tools for predicting changes of other economic indicators, especially stock exchange indices. The paper presents a general state space wavelet network model and the underlying principles. The model is applied to produce one session...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublikacjaAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublikacjaThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublikacjaThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublikacjaThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Forecasting Poland`s road deaths. W: [CD-ROM]. Zbornik referatov. V. Medna- rodna Konferenca Globalna Varnost. V. International Conference Global Safe- ty. Portoroz, od 6. do 9 oktobra 2002, Slovenija. [B.m.]: ZVD, Slovene Road Safety Council**2002 [7 s. 5 rys. bibliogr. 8 poz.] Prognozowanie liczby zabitych w ruchu drogowym w Polsce.
PublikacjaW referacie przedstawiono sytuację w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowegow Polsce oraz metodykę tworzenia długoterminowych prognoz rozwoju ryzyka w ruchu drogowym na przykładzie prognozy dla potrzeb Krajowego Programu Bez-pieczeństwa Ruchu drogowego GAMBIT 2000.
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Lithuania inland waterways and its prospects
PublikacjaInland waterways have some traditions in Lithuania and in neighbor Countries, but during last 50 years other modes of transport move out inland waterway transport from real economical activity. In the same time inland waterways is the main green and sustainable transport system. In this article are presented analysis situation, methodology for the ships optimal using in inland waterways, forecasting of the possible cargo and passenger...
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Mode choice modelling for urban areas
PublikacjaThe article presents the question of mode choice modelling in a four-stage travel modelling process. The article indicates limitations of currently used simplified methods of mode choice modelling and presents the possibility of using a more detailed approach that accounts for additional, statistically significant factors with the use of advanced mathematical tools, discrete choice models. A need has also been identified to include...
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Interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management based on multi-agent system
PublikacjaThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and the support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet. The approach integrates meteorological data and forecasts, air quality and emission monitoring, dynamic 3D simulation modelling and forecasting,...
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BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN VISEGRAD GROUP COUNTRIES
PublikacjaThe novelty of the study is a comprehensive look at the problem of bankruptcy forecasting in Visegrad Group countries (V4) and making a comparison in relation to the achievements obtained in more developed western countries. The conducted research based on a systematic literature review of 151 publications indexed in Scopus and Web of Science and bibliometric analysis. The results showed that the main lines of research are from...
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Revisiting The Determination Of Cutting Power While Sawing Of Wood With Circular Saw Blades By Means Of Fracture Mechanics
PublikacjaIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Cutting forces may be employed to determine not only toughness...
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PREDICTING CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES IN POLAND AND LITHUANIA – COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
PublikacjaThe research on predicting bankruptcies of enterprises constitutes one of the most important areas of financial management. In developed countries, the first publications on the subject appeared in the early 20th century. The situation is different in the countries of Eastern Europe, which introduced the market system already at the beginning of the 1990s, which resulted in first corporate bankruptcies. The article...
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MESOSCALE FUNCTIONS OF GPS SLANT DELAY
PublikacjaThe paper presents a computer module for GPS slant delay determination using data from COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) mesoscale non-hydrostatic model of the atmosphere which is run on IA64 Feniks computer cluster in the Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy of the Military University of Technology. The slant delay is the result of integrating the ray (eikonal) equation for the spatial function...