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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: risk in decision-making
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Applying Fuzzy Logic of Expert Knowledge for Accurate Predictive Algorithms of Customer Traffic Flows in Theme Parks
PublikacjaThis study analyzes two forecasting models based on the application of fuzzy logic and evaluates their effectiveness in predicting visitor expenditure and length of stay at a popular theme park. The forecasting models are based on a set of more than 600 decision rules constructed in the form of a complex series of IF-THEN statements. These algorithms store expert knowledge. A descriptive instrument that records the individual visitor's...
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Joanna Szłapczyńska dr hab. inż.
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A synthetic result of the development of personnel risk factors in the A, B, C, D enterprise
Dane BadawczeThe data below presents the shape of all the researched personnel risk factors in the A, B, C, D enterprise (which were tested by the author). Further considerations should be started with the presentation of the synthesis of the obtained results, which is presented in this research data.
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublikacjaRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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Expert systems in assessing the construction process safety taking account of the risk of disturbances
PublikacjaThe objective of the paper is to present the issue of safety manage-ment during the construction process. Threats in the form of disturb-ances may occur in the preparatory phase, during the execution of the construction project and also during its operational use. The arti-cle presents the concept of applying the methodology based, among others, on Learning Bayesian Networks, Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine,...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublikacjaThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Risk Diagnosis and Management with BBN for Civil Engineering Projects during Construction and Operation
PublikacjaThe authors demonstrate how expert knowledge about the construction and operation phases combined with monitoring data can be utilized for the diagnosis and management of risks typical to large civil engineering projects. The methodology chosen for estimating the probabilities of risk elements is known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). Using a BBN model one can keep on updating the risk event probabilities as the new evidence...
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk mediated by financial performance and goodwill
PublikacjaIn today’s business environment, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an increasingly significant factor for firms. This study is driven by the motivation to add to the current literature by investigating the mediating elements that explain the relationship between CSR and forward default risk. In this paper, we attempt to identify the important mediators and give a more comprehensive explanation of this connection...
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A Simulation Model for Risk and Pricing Competition in the Retail Lending Market
PublikacjaWe propose a simulation model of the retail lending market with two types of agents: borrowers searching for low interest rates and lenders competing through risk-based pricing. We show that individual banks observe adverse selection, even if every lender applies the same pricing strategy and a credit scoring model of comparable discrimination power. Additionally, the model justifies the reverse-S shape of the response rate curve....
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Navigational decision support system during approach manoeuvre in emergency STS transfer operation
PublikacjaThe paper is concerned with the problem of safe trajectory planning for approaching during emergency STS (Ship to Ship) transfer operation with oil spill. The safe trajectory means that the way points does not cross in the area of the environment with the static and dynamic obstacles and at the same time satisfies ship's stopping and speed deceleration performance. The evolutionary path planning algorithm is used to determine trajectory...
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Selecting cost-effective risk control option for advanced maritime operations; Integration of STPA-BN-Influence diagram
PublikacjaAdvanced maritime operations, such as remote pilotage, are vulnerable to new emergent risks due to increased system complexity and a multitude of interactions. Thus, maritime researchers this decade have combined Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to effectively manage these risks. Although these methods are effective in identifying hazards and analyzing risk levels, none of the STPA-BN studies...
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Marek Sylwester Tatara dr inż.
OsobyMarek Tatara w 2014 roku uzyskał tytuł magistra inżyniera z zakresu Automatyki i Robotyki w specjalności Intelligent Decision-making Systems na Wydziale Elektroniki, Telekomunikacji i Informatyki Politechniki Gdańskiej, wcześniej w tym roku uzyskał tytuł inżyniera Fizyki Technicznej w specjalności Nanotechnologia. W tym samym roku rozpoczął pracę jako wykładowca w Katedrze Systemów Decyzyjnych i Robotyki. Interesuje się przetwarzaniem...
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The KLC Cultures Synergy for Organizational Agility. Trust, Risk-Taking Attitude, and Critical Thinking as Moderators
PublikacjaOrganizational agility is visible in organizational change adaptability, and it is based on the development of dynamic capabilities, strategic sensitivity of leaders, accuracy and timing of decision-making, learning aptitude, flexibility in thinking and acting, and smooth resource flow across organizations, including the knowledge resource. In such a context, this study aimed to expose how the knowledge, learning, and collaboration...
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Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis of Cinan Feizuo Flood Protection Area, Huaihe River Basin
PublikacjaThis study evaluated multiple aspects of flood risks and effects on the Cinan Feizuo flood protection area in the Huaihe River basin. Flooding remains a leading problem for infrastructure, especially in urban, residential areas of the region. Effective flood modeling for urbanized floodplains is challenging, but MIKE (ID-2D) is paramount for analyzing and quantifying the risk in the vulnerable region. The Saint-Venant equation...
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Framework for RIDM within functional safety management process
PublikacjaThe functional safety management in life cycle is a complex process starting with identifying hazards and defining safety-related functions (SRFs) with risk assessment oriented at determining the safety integrity level. Another element of such life cycle is a verification of required SIL for designed safety-related system which implements safety function. Due to complexity of the problem, to overcome difficulties in safety-related...
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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Automated Valuation Model based on fuzzy and rough set theory for real estate market with insufficient source data
PublikacjaObjective monitoring of the real estate value is a requirement to maintain balance, increase security and minimize the risk of a crisis in the financial and economic sector of every country. The valuation of real estate is usually considered from two points of view, i.e. individual valuation and mass appraisal. It is commonly believed that Automated Valuation Models (AVM) should be devoted to mass appraisal, which requires a large...
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Optimization model of agile team’s cohesion
PublikacjaTeam’s cohesion is one of the most important factors of IT project execution effectiveness. Optimization of team’s cohesion gives the possibility of reducing the risk of project failure. It also allows to increase the teamwork efficiency and thus optimize time of tasks execution, increase the guarantee of maintaining the scope of the project and the chance of achieving a given level of products quality. This article presents determination...
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Hazard Control in Industrial Environments: A Knowledge-Vision-Based Approach
PublikacjaThis paper proposes the integration of image processing techniques (such as image segmentation, feature extraction and selection) and a knowledge representation approach in a framework for the development of an automatic system able to identify, in real time, unsafe activities in industrial environments. In this framework, the visual information (feature extraction) acquired from video-camera images and other context based gathered...
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Możliwość oszacowania niezawodności silników o zapłonie samoczynnym z zastosowaniem teorii procesów semi-Markowa oraz podejmowania decyzji eksploatacyjnych z uwzględnieniem wiarygodności diagnozy o stanie technicznym tego rodzaju silników spalinowych = Possibility of estimating the reliability of diesel engines by applying the theory of semi-Markov processes and making operational decisions by considering reliability of diagnosis on technical state of this sort of combustion engines/
PublikacjaThe paper presents semi-Markov models of technical state transitions for diesel engines, useful for determining reliability of the engines. A possibility of application of a three-state model with a simplified matrix function, or even a two-state model, to determine reliability of the engines, has been described herein on examples of known from literature semi-Markov models, for the case when appropriate diagnosing systems (SDG)...
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Marek Tobiszewski dr hab. inż.
OsobyUrodzony 07.04.1984 roku w Gdańsku. W 2012 roku obronił z wyróżnieniem doktorat, w 2017 roku uzyskał habilitację na podstawie osiągnięcia naukowego „Opracowanie służących do oceny uciążliwości środowiskowej procedur analitycznych i rozpuszczalników”. Pracuje w Katedrze Chemii Analitycznej od 2012 roku. Jego zainteresowania naukowe łączą analitykę chemiczną, zwłaszcza analityka związków organicznych w próbkach środowiskowych, z...
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Leveraging Generative AI Tools for UX Design in Lean and Agile Projects
PublikacjaRecent advancements in Generative AI (GenAI) open new opportunities to improve User Experience (UX) practitioners’ efficiency in their projects. Due to intensive teamwork caused by time pressure and readiness for rapid changes, Lean and Agile project management seems particularly predestined for easy adoption of GenAI-supported UX design methods. However, precipitate and spontaneous leveraging of GenAI tools to UX design bears...
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Trajectory planning for Service Ship during emergency STS transfer operation
PublikacjaIn this paper trajectory for approaching during emergency STS transfer operation with oil spill is considered as a sequence of navigation manoeuvres in specific navigational environment. The designed way points - ship positions and speed are determined as reference values to support navigator in decision making during steering and to mitigate the risk of collision which mostly results from exceeding the speed limit of approaching....
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Internal legal acts of technical and medical universities in Poland regulating classes conducted in-person during the Covid-19 pandemic
Dane BadawczeA database of legal acts and other internal documents of medical and technical universities in Poland regulating the way of organizing in-person or hybrid classes during the COVID-19 pandemic from the summer semester 2019/2020 to the winter semester 2020/2021.Documents were encoded in two separate coding systems using the MAXQDA program for qualitative...
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Detailed results of shaping personnel risk factors in enterprise D
Dane BadawczeThe data presents the shape of all the researched personnel risk factors in the D enterprise (which was tested by the author). Further considerations should be started with the presentation of the synthesis of the obtained results, which is presented in this research data.
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The Selection of Anchoring System for Floating Houses by Means of AHP Method
PublikacjaThis paper indicates and analyses the use of anchoring systems, such as mooring piles, booms, mooring cables, and deadweight anchors with additional elastic connectors, which are the most frequently applied by the producers of floating houses. The selection of the most advantageous anchoring system is complicated and requires the application of quantitative and qualitative data and methods. This publication presents the results...
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Estimating inequality aversion from subjective assessments of the just noticeable differences in welfare
PublikacjaResearch background: In Economics, the concept of inequality aversion corresponds with the concept of risk aversion in the literature on making decision under uncertainty. The risk aversion is estimated on the basis of subjective reactions of people to various lottery prospects. In Economics, however, an efficient method of estimating inequality aversion has not been developed yet. Purpose of the article: The main aim of this paper...
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Functional safety and cyber security analysis for life cycle management of industrial control systems in hazardous plants and oil port critical infrastructure including insurance
PublikacjaThis report addresses selected methodological aspects of proactive reliability, functional safety and cyber security management in life cycle of industrial automation and control systems (IACS) in hazardous plants and oil port critical installations based on the analysis of relevant hazards / threats and evaluation of related risks. In addition the insurance company point of view has been also considered, because nowadays the insurer,...
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How can analysts use multicriteria decision analysis?
PublikacjaProper decision making in multifacitated situation is very challenging task. It is especially difficult if there are many alternatives and criteria that are often contradictory. Analytical chemistry and related sciences involve many situations where decisions on complex problems are made. The support tools may be the use of MCDA (Multi-criteria Decision Analysis) algorithms. They formalize the decision process, make it transparent...
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Are We Facing a Tsunami of Vaccine Hesitancy or Outdated Pandemic Policy in Times of Omicron? Analyzing Changes of COVID-19 Vaccination Trends in Poland
PublikacjaIn this study, we analyzed Polish COVID-19 vaccination data until January 2023 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to understand individual decision making during the milder Omicron wave. Our findings show a general decline in subsequent vaccine uptake. As the number of government-provided doses increased, completion rates among certain low-risk groups dropped to less than 1%. Elderly individuals, especially...
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Zaufanie do siebie jako jeden z aspektów zaufania w aktywności przedsiębiorczej
PublikacjaArtykuł prezentuje znaczenie zaufania do samego siebie na tle zaufania w relacjach budowanych przez przedsiębiorcę w jego otoczeniu społecznym i biznesowym. Wyjaśniono koncepcję zaufania do samego siebie, odnosząc się do zróżnicowanych typów zaufania, na przykład: kalkulacyjnego, opartego na wiedzy i identyfikacyjnego. Wskazano jego potencjalne źródła i konsekwencje w kontekście budowania własnego wizerunku, podejmowania decyzji...
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ISSUE OF MAKING DECISIONS WITH REGARD TO SHIP TRAFFIC SAFETY IN DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT SEA
PublikacjaThe paper refers to the possibilities of making operational decisions that would enable to ensure safety to a ship in the event of application of the statistical decision theory with consideration of an expected value of consequences as a criterion for making such a decision. General description includes conditions for carrying out transportation tasks by ships and it has been shown that following this description it is possible...
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Nina Rizun dr
OsobyNina Rizun jest adiunktem na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej. W październiku 1999 r. uzyskała stopień doktora nauk technicznych za specjalizacją Gospodarka przedsiębiorstwa i organizacja produkcji. W latach 1993–2000 pracowała na Wydziale Informatyki Ekonomicznej w Akademji Metalurgicznej, Dnipro, Ukraina. W latach 2000–2016 – na Wydziale Cybernetyki Ekonomicznej i Metod Matematycznych na Uniwersytecie Alfreda...
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Experience Based Clinical Decision Support Systems: An Overview and Case Studies
PublikacjaThis chapter briefly overviews the evolution of the application of the Decisional DNA and the Set of Experience Knowledge Structure (SOEKS) in the medical domain and in particular in the specific case of the experience-based decision support systems. Decisional DNA, as a knowledge representation structure, offers great possibilities on gathering explicit knowledge of formal decision events as well as a tool for decision making...
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Michał Czubenko dr inż.
OsobyMichał Czubenko jest wyróżniającym się absolwentem z 2009 roku Wydziału Elektroniki, Telekomunikacji i Informatyki Politechniki Gdańskiej, specjalizującym się w dyscyplinie automatyka i robotyka. Obecnie pełni funkcję adiunkta w Katedrze Systemów Decyzyjnych i Robotyki tej samej uczelni. W 2012 roku odbył trzymiesięczny staż na Kingston University London, poszerzając swoje horyzonty w tej dziedzinie. Od obrony pracy magisterskiej...
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“Project-factor-decision”. Decisive factors in IT projects and their impact on its success
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to indicate the need for a deepening, systematizing and codifying of the theoretical and practical knowledge on IT project management, in the area of management decision-making processes. The scope of decisions made by managers is constantly on the increase. Project managers make decisions not only within the classic triangle of constraints, which consists of a schedule, a budget and the project scope,...
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Multi-Decision Analysis for selection of the best procedure for PAHs determination in smoked food.
PublikacjaMaking a proper decision in multifacitated situation is very challenging task. Especially, if there are many alternatives and criteria, even contradictory ones. The support tools may be application of MultiCriteria Decision Analysis methods. In this study the application of PROMETHEE...
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Decision support system for design of long distance heat transportation system
PublikacjaDistrict Heating (DH) systems are commonly supplied using local heat sources. Nowadays, modern insulation materials allow for effective and economically viable heat transportation over long distances (over 20 km). The paper proposes a Decision Support System (DSS) for optimized selection of design and operating parameters of a long distance Heat Transportation System (HTS). The method allows for evaluation of feasibility and effectiveness...
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The FEM analysis of pressure installation elements after simulated accidental overheating
PublikacjaThe paper presents innovative analysis focused on the safety aspects of existing pressure installation operation after overheating accidents. Results presented here can be applied in decision-making process concerning further operation of existing pressure installation after cooling system failure. In this paper the results of FEM analysis performed for a straight pipe and 90 degrees elbow, made of super duplex stainless steel,...
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Waste management in the mining industry of metals ores, coal, oil and natural gas - A review
PublikacjaWaste generated due to mining activity poses a serious issue due to the large amounts generated, even up to 65 billion tons per year, and is often associated with the risk posed by its storage and environmental management. This work aims to review waste management in the mining industry of metals ores, coal, oil and natural gas. It includes an analysis and discussion on the possibilities for reuse of certain types of wastes generated...
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Janusz Cieśliński prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyUrodził się 15 kwietnia 1954 r. w Słupsku. Jest absolwentem Wydziału Budowy Maszyn Politechniki Gdańskiej (1978), z którą związał całe swoje życie zawodowe. W 1986 r. obronił doktorat, w 1997 r. – habilitację, w 2006 r. – uzyskał tytuł profesora. Pełnił funkcje prodziekana ds. nauki Wydziału Mechanicznego przez dwie kadencje (2002–2008) oraz kierownika: Katedry Maszyn Przemysłu Spożywczego (2002–2006), Katedry Ekoinżynierii i...
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Framework of an Evolutionary Multi-Objective Optimisation Method for Planning a Safe Trajectory for a Marine Autonomous Surface Ship
PublikacjaThis paper represents the first stage of research into a multi-objective method of planning safe trajectories for marine autonomous surface ships (MASSs) involved in encounter situations. Our method applies an evolutionary multi-objective optimisation (EMO) approach to pursue three objectives: minimisation of the risk of collision, minimisation of fuel consumption due to collision avoidance manoeuvres, and minimisation of the extra...
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Testing Question Order Effects of Self-perception of Risk Propensity on Simple Lottery Choices as Measures of the Actual Risk Propensity
PublikacjaUncertainty together with the necessity of making choices inevitably results in risky decisions. For many years now, scientists have been studying notions connected with risk such as risk management, risk perception or risk propensity. While many sophisticated methods regarding measurement of risk propensity have been developed so far, it seems that little attention has been paid to checking whether they are not inherently flawed....
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublikacjaThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Effective Project Management, DaPE, sem 1 sem 3, 2022/2023 - Nowy
Kursy OnlineThe aim of the course is to familiarize students with modern methods of effective project management, to present principles, methods and tools supporting decision-making and control processes with particular emphasis on individualized approach to the specifics of the project and its surroundings.
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Quantitative Risk Assessment in Construction Disputes Based on Machine Learning Tools
PublikacjaA high monetary value of the construction projects is one of the reasons of frequent disputes between a general contractor (GC) and a client. A construction site is a unique, one-time, and single-product factory with many parties involved and dependent on each other. The organizational dependencies and their complexity make any fault or mistake propagate and influence the final result (delays, cost overruns). The constant will...
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Multi-Criteria Knowledge-Based Recommender System for Decision Support in Complex Business Processes
PublikacjaIn this paper, we present a concept of a multi-criteria knowledge-based Recommender System (RS) designed to provide decision support in complex business process (BP) scenarios. The developed approach is based on the knowledge aspects of Stylistic Patterns, Business Sentiment and Decision-Making Logic extracted from the BP unstructured texts. This knowledge serves as an input for a multi-criteria RS algorithm. The output is prediction...
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Marek Kubale prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyDetails concerning: Qualifications, Experiences, Editorial boards, Ph.D. theses supervised, Books, and Recent articles can be found at http://eti.pg.edu.pl/katedra-algorytmow-i-modelowania-systemow/Marek_KubaleGoogle ScholarSylwetka prof. Marka Kubalego Prof. Marek Kubale pracuje na Wydziale ETI Politechniki Gdańskiej nieprzerwanie od roku 1969. W tym czasie napisał ponad 150 prac naukowych, w tym ponad 40 z listy JCR. Ponadto...
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Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach
PublikacjaThe paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk...
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Functional safety and reliability analysis methodoloogy for hazardous industrial plants
PublikacjaThis monograph is devoted to current problems and methods of the functional safety and reliability analyses of the programmable control and protection systems for industrial hazardous plants. The results of these analyses are useful in the process of safety management in life cycle, for effective reducing relevant risks at the design stage, and then controlling these risks during the operation of given installation. The methodology...