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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: BANKRUPTCY, FORECASTING, RISK, CAUSES OF CRISIS
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
OsobyWykształcenie Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Stopień naukowy Doktor habilitowany – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2015) Doktor – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2004) Zatrudnienie Politechnika Gdańska: profesor uczelni (od 2019); profesor nadzwyczajny (2017-2019); adiunkt (2004-2016); asystent (2001-2004) I-Shou...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Magdalena Apollo dr inż.
Osoby2017 - PhD in Civil Engineering, thesis: Risk management in construction investments related to urban regeneration projects, Gdansk University of Technology IX 2012–VI 2013 - Postgraduate Studies at Gdynia Maritime University: Research Project Management (IPMA D Certificate) 2010 – MSc in Management and Marketing, Gdansk University of Technology 2007 – MSc in Civil Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology 2007-2010 - structural...
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublikacjaThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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Catheter-induced coronary artery and aortic dissections. A study of the mechanisms, risk factors, and propagation causes
PublikacjaBackground: Only the incidence, management, and prognosis of catheter-induced coronary artery and aortic dissections have been systematically studied until now. We sought to evaluate their mechanisms, risk factors, and propagation causes. Methods: Electronic databases containing 76,104 procedures and complication registries from 2000– –2020 were searched and relevant cineangiographic studies adjudicated. Results: Ninety-six dissections...
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Risk Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy
Czasopisma -
Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublikacjaW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublikacjaJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
OsobyBłażej Prusak jest kierownikiem Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz redaktorem naczelnym czasopisma Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME)/Przedsiębiorstwo we współczesnej gospodarce - teoria i praktyka, a także członkiem komitetów redakcyjnych takich czasopism jak: Intellectual Economics; Przestrzeń. Ekonomia. Społeczeństwo; Akademia Zarządzania. Jest autorem...
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Małgorzata Gawrycka dr hab.
OsobyMałgorzata Gawrycka, absolwentka Wydziału Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego, doktor habilitowana nauk ekonomicznych. W latach 2012-2020 prodziekan ds. dydaktyki Wydziału Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej. Obecnie dziekan Wydziału. Zainteresowania naukowe koncentrują się na zagadnieniach związanych z polityka makroekonomiczną państwa. W szczególności problematyka sytuacji na runku pracy, zmian demograficznych, kwalifikacji...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
OsobyMichał Bernard Pietrzak jest kierownikiem Katedry Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz zastępcą redaktora naczelnego ds. oceny pod względem poprawności statystycznej czasopism: Oeconomia Copernicana i Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Do października 2021 pracował na stanowisku profesora nadzwyczajnego na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania,...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublikacjaRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublikacjaThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publikacjamodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublikacjaIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublikacjaThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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Analiza bibliometryczna w badaniach dotyczących prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce
PublikacjaCelem opracowania jest ukazanie obrazu piśmiennictwa poświęconego zagadnieniom prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. Jako metodę badawczą zastosowano analizę bibliometryczną. Do analizy wykorzystano bazę Google Scholar oraz narzędzie Publish or Perish 7. Okresem badań objęto lata 1995– 2019. Jako frazy do wyszukiwania publikacji zastosowano: „prognozowanie upadłości”, „prognozowanie zagrożenia finansowego”, „systemy...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublikacjaLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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Piotr Figura dr inż.
OsobyPiotr Figura jest pracownikiem Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej, a także członkiem Komisji Wydziałowej ds. Weryfikacji Efektów Uczenia się oraz recenzentem akademickim zadań z zakresu rachunkowości Centralnej Komisji Edukacyjnej. Jest autorem lub współautorem kilku monografii naukowych w tym: Wartości wzorcowe wskaźników finansowych przedsiębiorstw giełdowych; Classical and modern concepts...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublikacjaThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Improving the regulation of the derivatives market as an objective prerequisite for sustainable development of the global financial system
PublikacjaThe development of financial markets is characterized by the emergence of new financial instruments, in particular derivatives, the risk level analysis of which is complicated. Counterparties are not always fully aware of and do not adequately assess the potential risks of derivatives, which may lead to large financial losses and sometimes bankruptcies. The purpose of the study is to generalize approaches to regulating derivative...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublikacjaDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Knowledge management and knowledge security—Building an integrated framework in the light of COVID‐19
PublikacjaAbstract. This paper presents a framework of knowledge risk management in the face of the COVID-19 crisis, derived from the literature on knowledge management, knowledge security and COVID-19. So far, both researchers and practitioners have focused on knowledge as an asset and their efforts have been aimed at the implementation of knowledge management in various organizational contexts. However, with increasing threats related...
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Systemowe ryzyko płynności w polskim systemie bankowym – determinanty i trendy
PublikacjaCelem rozprawy jest określenie metod pomiaru systemowego ryzyka płynności oraz pomiar tego ryzyka dla polskiego systemu bankowego za pomocą zaproponowanych metod, w oparciu o dostępne dane. Do celów rozprawy zaliczyć należy również przedstawienie problemu systemowego ryzyka płynności od strony jego wpływu na gospodarkę. Zgodnie z hipotezą główną, systemowe ryzyko płynności w polskim systemie bankowym w latach 1996-2012 wzrosło....
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Risk criteria for sea-going ships arising from the operation of the main engines' crankshaft - conecting rod - piston systems
PublikacjaIn the article the risk criterion for sea-going ships arising from the operation of the main engines' crankshaft - connecting rod - piston systems is proposed. These criterion is based on the procedures recommended in the Formal Safety Assessment method developed under the auspices of International Maritime Organization (IMO). First of all the collective risk criterion for ship has been proposed. In the next step, the share of...
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Aleksandra Parteka dr hab. inż.
OsobyAbout me: I am an associate professor and head of doctoral studies at the Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology (GdanskTech, Poland). I got my MSc degree in Economics from Gdansk University of Technology (2003) and Universita’ Politecnica delle Marche (2005), as well as MA degree in Contemporary European Studies from Sussex University (2006, with distinction). I received my PhD in Economics...
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Wet H2S corrosion and degradation of pipeline in amine regeneration system
PublikacjaThe paper presents the results of NDT examinations, metallographic tests and risk assessment of degradation related to corrosion of amine regeneration unit in a desulphurisation system. Intensive corrosion resulting from acid gases environment upon water condensation causes perforation of the pipeline. Detailed analysis reveals cracking related to the mechanism of wet H2S. Hydrogen penetration, resulting from the wet H2S process,...
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Driver Fatigue and Road Safety on Poland's National Roads
PublikacjaThis paper presents an overview of factors causing driver fatigue as described in the literature. Next, a traffic crash database for 2003–2007 is used to identify the causes, circumstances and consequences of accidents caused by driver fatigue on Poland’s national roads. The results of the study were used to build a model showing the relationship between the concentration of road accidents and casualties, and the time of day. Finally,...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublikacjaUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublikacjaUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Warunki hydrogeochemiczne i podatność na zanieczyszczenie wód podziemnych w zlewni górnej Raduni
PublikacjaThe paper presents results of long-term studies in the Kashubian Lake district that have been completed with data gathered over the last five years. The purpose of this research was to assess a temporal variability of groundwater chemical composition and to analyze risk of pollutant migration to subsurface water. Investigation indicates local, however, significant anthropogenic influence on a shallow aquifers.The assessment of...
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Roads unsafety - social costs
PublikacjaThe condition of road safety has a significant impact on the quality of citizens' life. Yearly, one in a hundred families in Poland suffers because of road accidents. It is affected by them not only in material terms but first and foremost in moral terms. Road accidents are one of the main causes of degradation in the quality of life. In Poland we hardly know anything about the fate of the road traffic victims, their life problems...
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Application of semi-Markov processes for evaluation of diesel engines reliability with regards to diagnostics
PublikacjaThe paper presents semi-Markov models of technical state transitions for diesel engines, useful for determination of their reliability, as a result of the conducted statistical empirical studies. Interpretation of technical states provided for this sort of engines refers to ship main engines, i.e. engines employed in propulsion systems of sea-going ships. The considerations recognize diesel engine as a diagnosed system (SDN), of...
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Urinary Tract Infections Caused by K. pneumoniae in Kidney Transplant Recipients – Epidemiology, Virulence and Antibiotic Resistance
PublikacjaUrinary tract infections are the most common complication in kidney transplant recipients, possibly resulting in the deterioration of a long-term kidney allograft function and an increased risk of recipient’s death. K. pneumoniae has emerged as one of the most prevalent etiologic agents in the context of recurrent urinary tract infections, especially with multidrug resistant strains. This paper discusses the epidemiology and risk...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublikacjaFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Dynamic Response of the Suspended on a Single Cable Footbridge
PublikacjaThe article presents numerical simulations, dynamic in situ load tests and a structural health monitoring (SHM) system installed in a suspended on a single cable footbridge. Numerical simulations performed prior to construction indicated the possibility of structural dynamics problems, finally confirmed in the course of dynamic test loading. In the dynamic load course the bridge deck developed vibrations displaying accelerations...
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The risk assessment of adverse events of nursing activities as the element of quality management in healhcare
PublikacjaThe purpose of the paper is to present MedCARVER+Shock method and Pareto analysis and its usability for the risk assessment of adverse events of nursing activities. 888 activities carried out by all 190 nurses working at the District Hospital X located in Poland were taken into account. During the research the qualitative approach was used. As the result sixteen groups of nursing activities causing the highest risk of adverse events...