Wyszukiwarka
Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY, PREDICTION, INSOLVENCY RISK
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
OsobyBłażej Prusak jest kierownikiem Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz redaktorem naczelnym czasopisma Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME)/Przedsiębiorstwo we współczesnej gospodarce - teoria i praktyka, a także członkiem komitetów redakcyjnych takich czasopism jak: Intellectual Economics; Przestrzeń. Ekonomia. Społeczeństwo; Akademia Zarządzania. Jest autorem...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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Piotr Figura dr inż.
OsobyPiotr Figura jest pracownikiem Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej, a także członkiem Komisji Wydziałowej ds. Weryfikacji Efektów Uczenia się oraz recenzentem akademickim zadań z zakresu rachunkowości Centralnej Komisji Edukacyjnej. Jest autorem lub współautorem kilku monografii naukowych w tym: Wartości wzorcowe wskaźników finansowych przedsiębiorstw giełdowych; Classical and modern concepts...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublikacjaIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublikacjaLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk mediated by financial performance and goodwill
PublikacjaIn today’s business environment, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an increasingly significant factor for firms. This study is driven by the motivation to add to the current literature by investigating the mediating elements that explain the relationship between CSR and forward default risk. In this paper, we attempt to identify the important mediators and give a more comprehensive explanation of this connection...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Bankruptcy Prediction - History, Present and Future.
PublikacjaW artykule przedstawiono krótką wzmiankę dotyczącą dotychczasowych badań w obszarze zagrożenia przedsiębiorstw upadłością, techniki wykorzystywane do budowy modeli prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw oraz metody stosowane w analizie porównawczej tego typu modeli.
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk under firm and industry heterogeneity
PublikacjaObjective: This study aims to evaluate the impact of corporate social responsibility on forward default risk (FDR) under the setting of firm and industry heterogeneity. Research Design & Methods: This study evaluated the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on FDR using the data of 497 companies from 2007-2021 in the S&P 500 index, taking into account firm and industry heterogeneity aspects. This study utilized instrumental...
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Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Trained on Synthetic Data
PublikacjaThis paper describes a research study that investigates the use of machine learning algorithms on synthetic data to classify the risk of developing preeclampsia by pregnant women. Synthetic datasets were generated based on parameter distributions from three real patient studies. Four models were compared: XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM). The study found that the XGBoost...
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Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublikacjaW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublikacjaJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates
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Machine learning-based prediction of residual drift and seismic risk assessment of steel moment-resisting frames considering soil-structure interaction
PublikacjaNowadays, due to improvements in seismic codes and computational devices, retrofitting buildings is an important topic, in which, permanent deformation of buildings, known as Residual Interstory Drift Ratio (RIDR), plays a crucial role. To provide an accurate yet reliable prediction model, 32 improved Machine Learning (ML) algorithms were considered using the Python software to investigate the best method for estimating Maximum...
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The Journal of Corporate Governance, Insurance, and Risk Management
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publikacjamodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries (prezentacja na konferencji TWENTY-SIXTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE MULTINATIONAL FINANCE SOCIETY)
PublikacjaUlotka konferencyjna: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modMainContent/uploadFiles/miscFiles/1562848077-MFC2019-Booklet-for-Distribution_2019-06-25.pdf
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Performance of various risk prediction models in a large lung cancer screening cohort in Gdańsk, Poland—a comparative study
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Validation of EORTC, CUETO, and EAU risk stratification in prediction of recurrence, progression, and death of patients with initially non–muscle‐invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC): A cohort analysis
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Analiza bibliometryczna w badaniach dotyczących prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce
PublikacjaCelem opracowania jest ukazanie obrazu piśmiennictwa poświęconego zagadnieniom prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. Jako metodę badawczą zastosowano analizę bibliometryczną. Do analizy wykorzystano bazę Google Scholar oraz narzędzie Publish or Perish 7. Okresem badań objęto lata 1995– 2019. Jako frazy do wyszukiwania publikacji zastosowano: „prognozowanie upadłości”, „prognozowanie zagrożenia finansowego”, „systemy...
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Validation of EORTC, CUETO and EAU risk stratification in prediction of recurrence, progression and death of patients with initially non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC): a cohort analysis with systematic review.
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Anna Rzeczycka dr hab.
OsobyAnna Rzeczycka jest zastępcą kierownika Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej. Publikacje sytuują się w dziedzinie nauk społecznych w zakresie dyscypliny ekonomia i finanse. Obejmują one książki, monografie, artykuły, publikacje i redakcje naukowe monografii i zeszytów naukowych. Liczbowo obejmuje on następujące pozycje: 12 monografii i podręczników, 115 publikacji w czasopismach naukowych,...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublikacjaRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
OsobyWykształcenie Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Stopień naukowy Doktor habilitowany – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2015) Doktor – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2004) Zatrudnienie Politechnika Gdańska: profesor uczelni (od 2019); profesor nadzwyczajny (2017-2019); adiunkt (2004-2016); asystent (2001-2004) I-Shou...
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Sanctions and their role in preventing the appropriation of the creditor’s property rights in bankruptcy proceedings–the case of Poland
PublikacjaThe aim of this paper is to fill the cognitive gap regarding the role of sanc-tions in the protection of a creditor’s property rights in the event of an entrepreneur insolvency. The impact of sanctions on transaction costs, including their identifica-tion and types, as well as the impact on the protection of creditor rights, has been poorly recognized in the subject literature to date. This article investigates...
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Corporate Restructuring. The directions of Legislative Changes
PublikacjaThe aim of the paper is the presentation of new legal regulations regarding corporate restructurization and challenges of their implementation to avoid the regulatory risk.
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublikacjaThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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Does being socially good save firms from bankruptcy? A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis
PublikacjaThe purpose of the review was to find out, does being responsible saves firms from bank-ruptcy? What is the relationship between corporate social responsibility and default risk? What meth-ods and measures are used in the literature to evaluate this relationship? And what is the theoretical underpinning of the studies? Moreover, to explore what are the gaps for future work, Web of Science and Scopus databases were utilised to obtain...
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Marcin Kulawiak dr hab. inż.
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Approval of an Arrangement in the Restructuring Proceedings and the Financial Condition of Companies Listed on the Stock Exchanges in Warsaw. Is There Any Relationship?
PublikacjaThis paper attempts to identify the financial indicators differentiating companies that are insolvent or at risk of insolvency and have successfully entered into an arrangement with their creditors from those that have not. In addition, a two-factor model for predicting the odds of an arrangement has been proposed. The research was conducted using a population of companies listed on stock exchanges in Warsaw that initiated restructuring...
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OCENA PRZYDATNOŚCI WIELOWYMIAROWYCH MODELI DYSKRYMINACYJNYCH DO PROGNOZOWANIA UPADŁOŚCI PRZEDSIĘBIORSTW HANDLOWYCH
PublikacjaCelem badań była ocena przydatności użycia modeli opartych na wielowymiarowej analizie dyskryminacyjnej do prognozowania upadłości polskich przedsiębiorstw handlowych oraz próba zwiększenia ich sprawności poprzez zmianę wartości ich punktów granicznych. Badaniu poddano modele: E. I. Altmana „B”, D. Hadasik, A. Hołdy oraz M. Hamrola, B. Czajki i M. Piechockiego. Do oceny modeli wykorzystano iloraz szans oraz macierz klasyfikacji...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
OsobyMichał Bernard Pietrzak jest kierownikiem Katedry Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz zastępcą redaktora naczelnego ds. oceny pod względem poprawności statystycznej czasopism: Oeconomia Copernicana i Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Do października 2021 pracował na stanowisku profesora nadzwyczajnego na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania,...
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Muhammad Mushafiq MSc
OsobyDoctoral student at the Faculty of Management and Economics. Muhammad Mushafiq has high interest in the research of corporate finance and risk management. He previously holds Masters of Science in Finance with Magna Cum Laude and Bachelor of Business Administration in Marketing and Finance with highest position. His research has appeared in the Journal of Retailing & Consumer Services, International Journal of Emerging Markets...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Marcin Potrykus dr inż.
OsobyAbsolwent Wydziału Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej. Od 2008 zatrudniony jako Asystent w Katedrze Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej. W 2015 roku obronił (w dyscyplinie ekonomia) rozprawę doktorską zatytułowaną „Inwestycje alternatywne – opłacalność a ryzyko”. Od 2016 zatrudniony jako adiunkt w Katedrze Analizy Ekonomicznej i Finansów na Politechnice Gdańskiej. Jego zainteresowania naukowe...
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Survival time prognosis under a Markov model of cancer development
PublikacjaIn this study we look at a breast cancer data set of women from Pomerania region collected in year 1987-1992 in the Medical University of Gdańsk. We analyze the clinical risk factors in conjunction with Markov model of cancer development. We evaluate Artificial Neural Network (ANN) survival time prediction via a simulation study.
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Andrzej Chybicki dr inż.
OsobyZ wykształcenia informatyk, absolwent Wydziału Elektroniki, Telekomunikacji i Informatyki Politechniki Gdańskiej, doktor nauk technicznych w dziedzinie informatyka specjalizujący się w przetwarzaniau danych przestrzennych w rozproszonych systemach informatycznych. Ukierunkowany na wykorzystywanie osiągnięć i wiedzy zakresu prowadzonych badań w przemyśle. Współpracował z szeregiem podmiotów przemysłu informatycznego, geodezyjnego...
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Mathematical Modeling of Ice Dynamics as a Decision Support Tool in River Engineering
PublikacjaThe prediction of winter flooding is a complicated task since it is affected by many meteorological and hydraulic factors. Typically, information on river ice conditions is based on historical observations, which are usually incomplete. Recently, data have been supplemented by information extracted from satellite images. All the above mentioned factors provide a good background of the characteristics of ice processes, but are not...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Safety assurance strategies for autonomous vehicles
PublikacjaAssuring safety of autonomous vehicles requires that the vehicle control system can perceive the situation in the environment and react to actions of other entities. One approach to vehicle safety assurance is based on the assumption that hazardous sequences of events should be identified during hazard analysis and then some means of hazard avoidance and mitigation, like barriers, should be designed and implemented. Another approach...