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Search results for: GSADF test
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Price bubbles in commodity market – A single time series and panel data analysis
PublicationThis paper examines thirty-five commodities, grouped into three market sectors (energy, metals, agriculture & livestock) in terms of the occurrence of price bubbles. The study was based on monthly data for each commodity separately and, in a panel approach, for selected sectors and for all commodities combined. The GSADF test and its version for panel data – panel GSADF – were used to identify bubbles. The beginning and end of...
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Investing in wine, precious metals and G-7 stock markets – A co-occurrence analysis for price bubbles
PublicationThis paper used the GSADF test to determine the periods defined in this paper as price bubbles in the three markets studied, i.e. the investment wine market, precious metal market and national stock market indices of G-7 countries. The results obtained enabled the calculation of the values of the phi correlation coefficients, which served the research objective of assessing the co-occurrence of price bubbles in the markets analysed....
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Diamond investments – Is the market free from multiple price bubbles?
PublicationThe following study aims to investigate whether multiple price bubbles, in which the quoted market price of diamonds significantly deviates from their fundamental value, exist in the diamond market. It was conducted using ADF, SADF and GSADF tests, with the latter found to be an optimal form of evaluating the analysed issue. The presented results support the conclusion that the diamond market is not free from periods defined as...
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Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?
PublicationThe article investigates the existence of a price bubble in the artificial intelligence market, employing the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and dynamic time warping methodology. It proposes a method to detect the end of the price bubble euphoria phase, generating an average profit of close to 7% over 5 days and over 10.5% over 20 days, with almost 90% effectiveness. The study found that the AI market experienced...