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Search results for: INFLATION FORECASTS
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...