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Abstract
Producing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation ex- pectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-makin g of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expec-tations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interde- pendences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementa- tion.
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Authors (2)
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Magdalena Szyszko dr
- Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Poznaniu Katedra bankowosci i Rynków Finansowych
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Full text
- Publication version
- Accepted or Published Version
- DOI:
- Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.12775/EQUIL.2015.022
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Details
- Category:
- Articles
- Type:
- artykuły w czasopismach recenzowanych i innych wydawnictwach ciągłych
- Published in:
-
EQUILIBRIUM Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
no. 10,
edition 3,
pages 9 - 26,
ISSN: 1689-765X - Language:
- English
- Publication year:
- 2015
- Bibliographic description:
- Szyszko M., Tura-Gawron K.: Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic// EQUILIBRIUM Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. -Vol. 10., (2015), s.9-26
- DOI:
- Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.12775/equil.2015.022
- Verified by:
- Gdańsk University of Technology
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