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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
Abstract
This paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign currency and indirectly affects the cost of living of all consumers in the country, is one of the significant macroeconomic factors. That is why the main objective of the presented research is to investigate the effectiveness of fuzzy sets in predicting the volatility of two currency pairs (PLN/CHF and PLN/USD). The models created will be part of a system of models aimed at forecasting the risk of consumer bankruptcy in Poland. The results demonstrate the high predictive properties of fuzzy sets in forecasting the volatility of analyzed currency pairs.
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- Category:
- Conference activity
- Type:
- publikacja w wydawnictwie zbiorowym recenzowanym (także w materiałach konferencyjnych)
- Language:
- English
- Publication year:
- 2019
- Bibliographic description:
- Korol T.: FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE// / : , 2019,
- Sources of funding:
- Verified by:
- Gdańsk University of Technology
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