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Abstract
Due to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts are made with 24- and 48-h lead times. The purpose of this work is to present the validation of the implemented system. First, the results of the WRF model were validated using in situ observations from ~70 synoptic stations. Second, we used the correlation method and Eastaugh’s percentile analysis to assess the quality of the FWI index. The data covered the 2019 fire season and were analysed for the whole forest area in Poland. Based on the presented results, it can be concluded that the FWI index (calculated based on the WRF model) has a very high predictive ability of fire risk. However, the results vary by region, distance from human habitats, and size of fire.
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Authors (7)
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Alan Mandal
- Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
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Tomasz Strzyzewski
- Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
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Adam Kochanski
- Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University
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Weronika Wrońska
- Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
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Marta Gruszczynska
- Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
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Mariusz Figurski prof. dr hab. inż.
- Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
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Full text
- Publication version
- Accepted or Published Version
- DOI:
- Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.1071/WF21106
- License
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Keywords
Details
- Category:
- Articles
- Type:
- artykuły w czasopismach
- Published in:
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
no. 31,
pages 149 - 162,
ISSN: 1049-8001 - Language:
- English
- Publication year:
- 2022
- Bibliographic description:
- Mandal A., Nykiel G., Strzyzewski T., Kochanski A., Wrońska W., Gruszczynska M., Figurski M.: High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model// INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE -Vol. 31,iss. 2 (2022), s.149-162
- DOI:
- Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.1071/wf21106
- Sources of funding:
-
- Free publication
- Verified by:
- Gdańsk University of Technology
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