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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract

Due to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts are made with 24- and 48-h lead times. The purpose of this work is to present the validation of the implemented system. First, the results of the WRF model were validated using in situ observations from ~70 synoptic stations. Second, we used the correlation method and Eastaugh’s percentile analysis to assess the quality of the FWI index. The data covered the 2019 fire season and were analysed for the whole forest area in Poland. Based on the presented results, it can be concluded that the FWI index (calculated based on the WRF model) has a very high predictive ability of fire risk. However, the results vary by region, distance from human habitats, and size of fire.

Citations

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Authors (7)

  • Photo of  Alan Mandal

    Alan Mandal

    • Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
  • Photo of  Tomasz Strzyzewski

    Tomasz Strzyzewski

    • Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
  • Photo of  Adam Kochanski

    Adam Kochanski

    • Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University
  • Photo of  Weronika Wrońska

    Weronika Wrońska

    • Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
  • Photo of  Marta Gruszczynska

    Marta Gruszczynska

    • Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy
  • Photo of prof. dr hab. inż. Mariusz Figurski

    Mariusz Figurski prof. dr hab. inż.

    • Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państowy Instytut Badawczy

Keywords

Details

Category:
Articles
Type:
artykuły w czasopismach
Published in:
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE no. 31, pages 149 - 162,
ISSN: 1049-8001
Language:
English
Publication year:
2022
Bibliographic description:
Mandal A., Nykiel G., Strzyzewski T., Kochanski A., Wrońska W., Gruszczynska M., Figurski M.: High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model// INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE -Vol. 31,iss. 2 (2022), s.149-162
DOI:
Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.1071/wf21106
Sources of funding:
  • COST_FREE
Verified by:
Gdańsk University of Technology

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