Abstrakt

Knowledge of the variability of the hydrograph of outflow from urban catchments is highly important for measurements and evaluation of the operation of sewer networks. Currently, hydrodynamic models are most frequently used for hydrograph modeling. Since a large number of their parameters have to be identified, there may be problems at the calibration stage. Hence, sensitivity analysis is used to limit the number of parameters. However, the current sensitivity analytical methods ignore the effect of the temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation in a rainfall event on the catchment outflow hydrograph. This article presents a methodology of constructing a simulator of catchment outflow hydrograph parameters (volume and maximum flow). For this purpose, uncertainty analytical results obtained with the use of the GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) method were used. A novel analysis of the sensitivity of the hydrodynamic catchment models was also developed, which can be used in the analysis of the operation of stormwater networks and underground infrastructure facilities. Using the logistic regression method, an innovative sensitivity coefficient was proposed to study the impact of the variability of the parameters of the hydrodynamic model depending on the distribution of rainfall, the origin of rainfall (on the Chomicz scale), and the uncertainty of the estimated simulator coefficients on the parameters of the outflow hydrograph. The developed model enables the analysis of the impact of the identified SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) parameters on the runoff hydrograph, taking into account local rainfall conditions, which have not been analyzed thus far. Compared with the currently developed methods, the analyses included the impact of the uncertainty of the identified coefficients in the logistic regression model on the results of the sensitivity coefficient calculation. This aspect has not been taken into account in the sensitivity analytical methods thus far, although this approach evaluates the reliability of the simulation results. The results indicated a considerable influence of rainfall distribution and intensity on the sensitivity factors. The greater the intensity and rainfall were, the lower the impact of the identified hydrodynamic model parameters on the hydrograph parameters.

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