Abstrakt
This manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and multilayer artificial neural network, and decision trees. Such a research approach will answer the question of whether changes in indicators are relevant predictors of a company’s coming financial crisis because declines or increases in values do not immediately indicate that the company’s economic situation is deteriorating. The research relies on two samples of firms—the learning sample of 50 bankrupt and 50 non-bankrupt enterprises and the testing sample of 250 bankrupt and 250 non-bankrupt firms.
Cytowania
-
2 5
CrossRef
-
0
Web of Science
-
2 2
Scopus
Autor (1)
Cytuj jako
Pełna treść
- Wersja publikacji
- Accepted albo Published Version
- Licencja
- otwiera się w nowej karcie
Słowa kluczowe
Informacje szczegółowe
- Kategoria:
- Publikacja w czasopiśmie
- Typ:
- artykuły w czasopismach
- Opublikowano w:
-
Journal of Risk and Financial Management
nr 12,
strony 1 - 15,
ISSN: 1911-8074 - Język:
- angielski
- Rok wydania:
- 2019
- Opis bibliograficzny:
- Korol T.: Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises// Journal of Risk and Financial Management -Vol. 12,iss. 4 (2019), s.1-15
- DOI:
- Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.3390/jrfm12040185
- Bibliografia: test
-
- If X 1 <= 0.015 and X 6 <= 0.9 and X 7 <= 0.82 and X 8 <= 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 0 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 <= 0.015 and X 6 <= 0.9 and X 7 <= 0.82 and X 8 > 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 0 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 <= 0.015 and X 6 <= 0.9 and X 7 > 0.82 and X 8 > 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 1 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 <= 0.015 and X 6 > 0.9 and X 7 > 0.82 and X 8 > 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 1 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 > 0.015 and X 6 > 0.9 and X 7 > 0.82 and X 8 > 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 1 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 <= 0.015 and X 6 <= 0.9 and X 7 > 0.82 and X 8 <= 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 0 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 <= 0.015 and X 6 > 0.9 and X 7 <= 0.82 and X 8 <= 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 0 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- If X 1 > 0.015 and X 6 <= 0.9 and X 7 <= 0.82 and X 8 <= 1.05 and DX 1 > 70 and DX 8 <= 85 then 0 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12, 185 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- In the last stage of the research, the author estimated the decision trees model. The structure of the model is presented in Figure 8. In this model, the following financial ratios were selected: X2 (liquidity ratio), X1 (profitability ratio), X6 (structural ratio), X9 (structural ratio). As can be seen in this model, none of variables representing the change of value of ratios (dynamics) were selected during estimation process of the model. This means it is the only static model in the proposed research. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 15 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- References Acosta-González, Eduardo, and Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez. 2014. Forecasting financial failure of firms via genetic algorithms. Computational Economics 43: 133-57. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Agarwal, Vineet, and Richard Taffler. 2007. Twenty-five years of the Taffler z-score model-Does it really have predictive ability? Accounting and Business Research 37: 285-300. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Ahn, Byeong, Sung Cho, and Chang Kim. 2000. The integrated methodology of rough set theory and artificial neural networks for business failure prediction. Expert Systems with Applications 18: 65-74. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Alaka, Hafiz A., Lukumon O. Oyedele, Hakeem A. Owolabi, Vikas Kumar, Saheed O. Ajayi, Olugbenga O. Akinade, and Muhammad Bilal. 2018. Systematic review of bankruptcy prediction models: Towards a framework for tool selection. Expert Systems with Applications 94: 164-84. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Altman, Edward. 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23: 589-609. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Altman, Edward. 2018. Applications of distress prediction models: What have we learned after 50 years from the Z-score models? International Journal of Financial Studies 6: 70. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Altman, Edward, and Herbert Rijken. 2006. A point-in-time perspective on through-the-cycle ratings. Financial Analysts Journal 62: 54-70. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Andres, Javier, Manuel Landajo, and Pedro Lorca. 2005. Forecasting business profitability by using classification techniques: A comparative analysis based on a Spanish case. European Journal of Operational Research 167: 518-42. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Atiya, Amir. 2001. Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: A survey and new results. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 12: 929-35. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Balcaen, Sofie, and Hubert Ooghe. 2006. 35 years of studies on business failure: An overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems. The British Accounting Review 38: 63-93. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Bandyopadhyay, Arindam. 2006. Predicting probability of default of Indian corporate bonds: Logistic and Z-score model approaches. The Journal of Risk Finance 7: 255-72. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Barboza, Flavio, Herbert Kimura, and Edward Altman. 2017. Machine learning models and bankruptcy prediction. Expert Systems with Applications 83: 405-17. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Beaver, William H. 1966. Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research 4: 71-111. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Berryman, John. 1992. Small Business Bankruptcy and Failure-A Survey of the Literature. Los Angeles: Small Business Research Institute of Industrial Economics, pp. 1-18. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Brabazon, Anthony, and Michael O'Neil. 2004. Diagnosing corporate stability using grammatical evolution. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science 1: 293-310.
- Bradley, Don, and Michael Rubach. 2002. Trade Credit and Small Business-A Cause of Business Failures? Conway: University of Central Arkansas, pp. 1-7.
- Callejon, A.M., A.M. Casado, Martina Fernandez, and J.I. Pelaez. 2013. A system of insolvency prediction for industrial companies using a financial alternative model with neural networks. International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems 6: 29-37. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Chava, Sudheer, and Robert Jarrow. 2004. Bankruptcy prediction with industry effects. Review of Finance 8: 537-69. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Cressy, Robert. 2006. Why do most firms die young? Small Business Economics 26: 103-16. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Crone, Sven, and Steven Finlay. 2012. Instance sampling in credit scoring: An empirical study of sample size and balancing. International Journal of Forecasting 28: 224-38. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Davies, David. 1997. The Art of Managing Finance. Lincoln: McGraw-Hill Book Co. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Deakin, Edward B. 1972. A discriminant analysis of prediction of business failure. Journal of Accounting Research 3: 167-69. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Delen, Dursun, Cemil Kuzey, and Ali Uyar. 2013. Measuring firm performance using financial ratios: A decision tree approach. Expert Systems with Applications 40: 3970-83. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Dong, Manh Cuong, Shaonan Tian, and Cathy W.S. Chen. 2018. Predicting failure risk using financial ratios: Quantile hazard model approach. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 44: 204-20. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Doumpos, Michalis, and Constantin Zopounidis. 1999. A multinational discrimination method for the prediction of financial distress: the case of Greece. Multinational Finance Journal 3: 71-101. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Doyle, Jeffrey, Weili Geb, and Sarah McVay. 2007. Determinants of weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 44: 193-223. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Foster, George. 1986. Financial Statement Analysis, 2nd ed. New York: Prentice Hall.
- Ganguin, Blaise, and John Bilardello. 2005. Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis, Standard & Poor's. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Garcia, Vincente, Ana I. Marques, J. Salvador Sanchez, and Humberto Ochoa-Dominguez. 2019. Dissimilarity-Based Linear Models for Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction. Computional Economics 53: 1019-31. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Giannopoulos, George, and Sindre Sigbjornsen. 2019. Prediction of bankruptcy using financial ratios in the Greek market. Theoretical Economics Letters 9: 1114-28. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Grice, John, and Michael Dugan. 2001. The limitations of bankruptcy prediction models-Some cautions for the researcher. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 17: 151-66. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Ho, Chun-Yu, Patrick McCarthy, Yi Yang, and Xuan Ye. 2013. Bankruptcy in the pulp and paper industry: Market's reaction and prediction. Empirical Economics 45: 1205-32. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Hosaka, Tadaaki. 2019. Bankruptcy prediction using imaged financial ratios and convolutional neural networks. Expert Systems with Applications 117: 287-99. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Hosmer, David, Stanley Lemeshow, and Rod X. Sturdivant. 2013. Applied Logistic Regression. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jackson, Richard H.G., and Anthony Wood. 2013. The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study. The British Accounting Review 45: 183-202. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jardin, Philippe. 2015. Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes. European Journal of Operational Research 242: 286-303. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jardin, Philippe. 2016. A two-stage classification technique for bankruptcy prediction. European Journal of Operational Research 254: 236-52. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jardin, Philippe. 2017. Dynamics of firm financial evolution and bankruptcy prediction. Expert Systems with Applications 75: 25-43. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jardin, Philippe. 2018. Failure pattern-based ensembles applied to bankruptcy forecasting. Decision Support Systems 107: 64-77. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jardin, Philippe, and Eric Severin. 2011. Predicting corporate bankruptcy using a self-organizing map-An empirical study to improve the forecasting horizon of a financial failure model. Decision Support Systems 51: 701-11. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jayasekera, Ranadeva. 2018. Prediction of company failure: Past, present and promising directions for the future. International Review of Financial Analysis 55: 196-208. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Jovanovic, Boyan. 1982. Selection and the evolution of industry. Econometrica 50: 649-70. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Kieschnick, Robert, Mark La Plante, and Rabih Moussawi. 2013. Working capital management and shareholders' wealth. Review of Finance 17: 1827-52. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Kim, Myoung-Jong, and Dae-Ki Kang. 2010. Ensemble with neural networks for bankruptcy prediction. Expert Systems with Applications 37: 3373-79. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Kumar, Pramod, and Vadlamani Ravi. 2007. Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques-A review. European Journal of Operational Research 180: 1-28. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Laitinen, Erkki K. 2007. Classification accuracy and correlation-LDA in failure prediction. European Journal of Operational Research 183: 210-25. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lensberg, Terje, Aasmund Eilifsen, and Thomas E. McKee. 2006. Bankruptcy theory development and classification via genetic programming. European Journal of Operational Research 169: 677-97. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Li, Leon, and Robert Faff. 2019. Predicting corporate bankruptcy: What matters? International Review of Economics & Finance 62: 1-19. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Liang, Deron, Chia-Chi Lu, Chih-Fong Tsai, and Guan-An Shih. 2016. Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study. European Journal of Operational Research 252: 561-72. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lin, Fengyi, Deron Liang, Ching-Chiang Yeh, and Jui-Chieh Huang. 2014. Novel feature selection methods to financial distress prediction. Expert Systems with Applications 41: 2472-83. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lukason, Oliver, and Richard C. Hoffman. 2014. Firm Bankruptcy Probability and Causes: An Integrated Study. International Journal of Business and Management 9: 80-91. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lyandres, Evgeny, and Alexei Zhdanov. 2013. Investment opportunities and bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Financial Markets 16: 439-76. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Mcleay, Stuart, and Azmi Omar. 2000. The sensitivity of prediction models to the non-normality of bounded and unbounded financial ratios. British Accounting Review 32: 213-30. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Mensah, Yaw. 1984. An examination of the stationarity of multivariate bankruptcy prediction models-A methodological study. Journal of Accounting Research 22: 380-95. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Mihalovic, Matus. 2016. Performance Comparison of Multiple Discriminant Analysis and Logit Models in Bankruptcy Prediction. Economics and Sociology 9: 101-18. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Min, Jae, and Young-Chan Lee. 2005. Bankruptcy prediction using support vector machine with optimal choice of kernel function parameters. Expert Systems with Applications 28: 603-14. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Nwogugu, Michael. 2007. Decision-making, risk and corporate governance-A critque of methodological issues in bankruptcy/recovery prediction models. Applied Mathematics and Computation 185: 178-96. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Orsenigo, Carlotta, and Carlo Vercellis. 2013. Linear versus nonlinear dimensionality reduction for banks credit rating prediction. Knowledge-Based Systems 47: 14-22. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Pakes, Ariel, and Richard Ericsson. 1998. Empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics. Journal of Economic Theory 79: 1-45. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Psillaki, Maria, Ioannis E. Tsolas, and Dimmitris Margaritis. 2010. Evaluation of credit risk based on firm performance. European Journal of Operational Research 201: 873-81. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Ptak-Chmielewska, Aneta. 2019. Predicting Micro-Enterprise Failures Using Data Mining Techniques. Journal of Risk and Financial Managament 12: 30. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Ravisankar, Pediredla, and Vadlamani Ravi. 2010. Financial distress prediction in banks using group method of data handling neural network, counter propagation neural network and fuzzy ARTMAP. Knowledge-Based Systems 23: 823-31. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Succurro, Marianna, Giuseppe Arcuri, and Giuseppina D. Constanzo. 2019. A combined approach based on robust PCA to improve bankruptcy forecasting. Review of Accounting and Finance 18: 296-320. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Sun, Jie, Hui Li, Qing-Hua Huang, and Kai-Yu He. 2014. Predicting financial distress and corporate failure-A review from the state-of-the-art definitions, modeling, sampling, and featuring approaches. Knowledge-Based Systems 57: 41-56. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Tam, Kar Yan. 1991. Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy. Omega 19: 429-45. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Tian, Shaonan, and Yan Yu. 2017. Financial ratios and bankruptcy predictions: An international evidence. International Review of Economics and Finance 51: 510-26. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Tian, Shaonan, Yan Yu, and Hui Guo. 2015. Variable selection and corporate bankruptcy forecasts. Journal of Banking & Finance 52: 89-100. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Tsai, Chih-Fong. 2014. Combining cluster analysis with classifier ensembles to predict financial distress. Information Fusion 16: 46-58. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Watson, John, and Jim Everett. 1999. Small business failure rates-choice of definition and industry effects. International Small Business Journal 17: 33-49. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Wu, Desheng Dash, Yidong Zhang, Dexiang Wu, and David L. Olson. 2010. Fuzzy multi-objective programming for supplier selection and risk modeling: A possibility approach. European Journal of Operational Research 200: 774-87. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Xiao, Zhi, Xianglei Yang, Ying Pang, and Xin Dang. 2012. The prediction for listed companies' financial distress by using multiple prediction methods with rough set and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Knowledge-Based Systems 26: 196-206. [CrossRef] otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Zapranis, Achilleas, and Demetrios Ginoglou. 2000. Forecasting corporate failure with neural network approach: The Greek case. Journal of Financial Management & Analysis 13: 11-21.
- Źródła finansowania:
- Weryfikacja:
- Politechnika Gdańska
wyświetlono 152 razy