The problem of identification of multivariate autoregressive processes (systems or signals) with unknown and possibly time-varying model order and time-varying rate of parameter variation is considered and solved using parallel estimation approach. Under this approach, several local estimation algorithms, with different order and bandwidth settings, are run simultaneously and compared based on their predictive performance. First,...

When identifying a nonstationary autoregressive process, e.g. for the purpose of signal prediction or parametric spectrum estimation, two important decisions must be taken. First, one should choose the appropriate order of the autoregressive model, i.e., the number of autoregressive coefficients that will be estimated. Second, if identification is carried out using the local estimation technique, such as the localized version of...

The problem of identification of a nonstationary autoregressive process with unknown, and possibly time-varying, rate of parameter changes, is considered and solved using the parallel estimation approach. The proposed two-stage estimation scheme, which combines the local estimation approach with the basis function one, offers both quantitative and qualitative improvements compared with the currently used single-stage methods.

When estimating the correlation/spectral structure of a locally stationary process, one should choose the so-called estimation bandwidth, related to the effective width of the local analysis window. The choice should comply with the degree of signal nonstationarity. Too small bandwidth may result in an excessive estimation bias, while too large bandwidth may cause excessive estimation variance. The paper presents a novel method...

The problem of parametric, autoregressive model based estimation of a time-varying spectral density function of a nonstationary process is considered. It is shown that estimation results can be considerably improved if identification of the autoregressive model is carried out using the two-sided doubly exponentially weighted lattice algorithm which combines results yielded by two one-sided lattice algorithms running forward in...