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Scenarios in the development strategies of larger cities in Poland

Abstract

Summary: Planning prepares decisions and future actions. Therefore, future conditions should be considered in planning, in particular strategic planning, due to its long-term nature. To accomplish this, certain prognostic methods should be applied. A scenario method is seen as one of the most useful prognostic method, especially in cases when social and institutional behaviour plays a crucial role. The aim of the paper is an analysis and evaluation of the application of scenarios in the development strategies of larger cities in Poland (more than 100 thousand inhabitants). Scenarios were prepared in 13 out of the 39 cities. All these scenarios were analyzed. The scenarios were formulated with the intuitive logics method. Most scenarios do not fully meet the scenario definition because of the insufficiency of the sequences of events presented on the timeline. The author discusses some methodological problems concerning the creation of scenarios and the problems in using scenarios, and gives some recommendations.

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Keywords

Details

Category:
Articles
Type:
artykuły w czasopismach
Published in:
PRACE NAUKOWE UNIWERSYTETU EKONOMICZNEGO WE WROCŁAWIU no. 63, pages 91 - 100,
ISSN: 1899-3192
Language:
English
Publication year:
2019
Bibliographic description:
Sołtys J.: Scenarios in the development strategies of larger cities in Poland// PRACE NAUKOWE UNIWERSYTETU EKONOMICZNEGO WE WROCŁAWIU -Vol. 63,iss. 2 (2019), s.91-100
DOI:
Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.15611/pn.2019.2.08
Verified by:
Gdańsk University of Technology

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