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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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Inflation rate (In percentage) in Iran
Open Research DataCurrently, a major concern of the Iranian economy is high inflation. Increasing prices of basic goods, and their increase in wages do not follow. At the same time the unemployment rate has raised. The following data set present the inflation rate between 2010-2020 (forecast).
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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The Business Environment of Georgia and Ukraine: Approaches to a Comparative Analysis
PublicationThe formation of a favourable business environment and the intensification of entrepreneurial activity on this basis is one of the priorities of economic policy of governments around the world. The aim of this article is to conduct a comparative analysis of some of the characteristics of the business environment of Georgia and Ukraine. The theoretical basis of the study is the understanding of the business environment as a necessary...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...