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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households
PublicationThis paper is an evaluation of the common macro-economic, micro-economic, and social factors affecting households’ financial situations. Moreover, the author’s objective was to develop a fuzzy logic model for forecasting fluctuations in the number of nonperforming consumer loans in a country using the example of Poland. This study represents one of the first attempts in the global literature to develop such a forecasting model...
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International trade and containerization - certain trends after the financial crisis of 2007-2008
PublicationThe following article presents the situation on international trade and the global maritime container transport market after the financial crisis of 2007-2008. In the first part the author focuses on describing the specifics of containerization in global trade. The following parts include characteristic of container terminal operators and shipping lines. Finally, significant changes in the global container handling market after...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Own or public? Later livelihoods of Ukrainian war migrant households in Poland
PublicationThis paper presents empirical research on the livelihood resources of Ukrainian households that fled to Poland due to the Russian invasion and reside there long term. Using a nationwide sample of these households and an accurate econometric framework, we investigate the factors influencing the role of income from work, other private resources and public assistance in covering their living costs in exile. Our findings confirm the...
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Improving the regulation of the derivatives market as an objective prerequisite for sustainable development of the global financial system
PublicationThe development of financial markets is characterized by the emergence of new financial instruments, in particular derivatives, the risk level analysis of which is complicated. Counterparties are not always fully aware of and do not adequately assess the potential risks of derivatives, which may lead to large financial losses and sometimes bankruptcies. The purpose of the study is to generalize approaches to regulating derivative...
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Piotr Paradowski dr
PeopleDr Piotr Paradowski's areas of expertise in quantitative social science methods include truncated and censored models, quantile regressions, survival analysis, panel data models, discrete regressions and qualitative choice models, instrumental variable estimation, and hierarchical modeling. He is also an expert in statistical matching and statistical methods to handle missing data. In addition, he conducts research on income and...
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Countries with the highest and the lowest electricity consumption per capita in 1998, kWh / c
Open Research DataFor several years, domestic electricity consumption has been growing (the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption for 2005-2010 is 2.75%). The increase in demand for electricity is related to the continuous development of the Polish economy, the enrichment of society and the growing, year by year, industrial production. It should be noted...