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Search results for: BANKRUPTCY MODELS
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublicationLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublicationRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublicationThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Financial Markets and Bankruptcy Systems: Is there a Relationship?
PublicationPurpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publicationmodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublicationIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublicationIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
PeopleEducation Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Degree / scientific title Habilitation – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2015) Ph.D. – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2004) Employment Gdańsk University of Technology - associate professor (since 2017); assistant professor...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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OCENA PRZYDATNOŚCI WIELOWYMIAROWYCH MODELI DYSKRYMINACYJNYCH DO PROGNOZOWANIA UPADŁOŚCI PRZEDSIĘBIORSTW HANDLOWYCH
PublicationCelem badań była ocena przydatności użycia modeli opartych na wielowymiarowej analizie dyskryminacyjnej do prognozowania upadłości polskich przedsiębiorstw handlowych oraz próba zwiększenia ich sprawności poprzez zmianę wartości ich punktów granicznych. Badaniu poddano modele: E. I. Altmana „B”, D. Hadasik, A. Hołdy oraz M. Hamrola, B. Czajki i M. Piechockiego. Do oceny modeli wykorzystano iloraz szans oraz macierz klasyfikacji...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
PeopleMichal Pietrzak is head of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Gdańsk University of Technology, and Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Statistical Reviewing of the journals: Oeconomia Copernicana and Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Until October 2021, he worked as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, Nicolaus...
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The role of stakeholders on rejection of bankruptcy applications in the case of “poverty” of the estate: A Polish case study
PublicationThe aim of this article is to supplement the Law and Economics area of science with regard to the scope of the ex ante effectiveness of bankruptcy law using the example of Poland. Bankruptcy law is effective in the ex ante stage when it eliminates from the market insolvent entrepreneurs who cannot even afford to cover the costs of bankruptcy proceedings. In these cases, the bankruptcy court should dismiss the petition for bankruptcy...
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Bankruptcy Law Severity for Debtors: Comparative Analysis Among Selected Countries
PublicationPurpose: The objective of this paper is to propose the new indicator of bankruptcy law severity for debtors (BLSI-Bankruptcy Law Severity Index). On the basis of this index we conducted comparative analysis of debtor/creditor friendliness of bankruptcy laws among 27 selected countries. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research the following methods were used: analysis of legal acts, literature review and expert method. Findings:...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Short-term Price Reaction to Involuntary Bankruptcies Filed in Bad Faith: Empirical Evidence from Poland
PublicationPurpose: Assessing the reaction of the prices of shares of companies listed in the Warsaw Stock Exchange to the public disclosure of information about the filing a bankruptcy petition in bad faith by creditors. Design/Methodology/Approach: Event study analysis. Findings: It can therefore be assumed that the filing of an unfounded bankruptcy petition does not, in the short term, have a statistically significant negative impact on...
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Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland
PublicationThis study aims to check market reaction to filing for bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings and to verify the short-term effect of a price reversal in the Polish market in the years 2004–2019. The research was conducted by dividing the analysed companies according to the procedure (bankruptcy and restructuring) and market (the main market and the NewConnect market). The research methodology used in the study is the event analysis...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Intraday price reaction to filing bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings – the evidence from Poland
PublicationThis chapter presents the results of research on the price reaction of shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to filing bankruptcy and/or restructuring applications. Event study was adopted as the research method, and it was performed at 10, 5, and 1-minute intervals. It was found that the reaction is rapid, as it takes 1–2 minutes after the information on bankruptcy and restructuring applications was made public. Significantly...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublicationIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublicationThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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Sanctions and their role in preventing the appropriation of the creditor’s property rights in bankruptcy proceedings–the case of Poland
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to fill the cognitive gap regarding the role of sanc-tions in the protection of a creditor’s property rights in the event of an entrepreneur insolvency. The impact of sanctions on transaction costs, including their identifica-tion and types, as well as the impact on the protection of creditor rights, has been poorly recognized in the subject literature to date. This article investigates...
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It is not OK but it works – unproductive entrepreneurship, the case of Poland
PublicationThe concept of unproductive entrepreneurs was introduced to science by Baumol, who pointed out the differences in business output between countries. Unproductive behaviour of entrepreneurs is often a consequence of ineffective institutions used by entrepreneurs for rent seeking. The aim of this article is to examine subjective norms (S.N.) and attitudes regarding specified types of unproductive entrepreneurship, which in many cases...
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ANALYZING TITLES OF ECONOMY NEWS TO UNDERSTAND IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON ECONOMICAL SITUATION
PublicationCovid-19 affected the whole world in a short time, causing serious panic and uncertainty in society. Because it was an unprecedented disease, the medical community has worked hard to find out how to deal with it, and it continues to do so. The rapid spread of the disease, the shortage of hospital capacity and the increase in deaths drove the whole world to a closure, so to speak. In this time period, life in the world came to a...
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Approval of an Arrangement in the Restructuring Proceedings and the Financial Condition of Companies Listed on the Stock Exchanges in Warsaw. Is There Any Relationship?
PublicationThis paper attempts to identify the financial indicators differentiating companies that are insolvent or at risk of insolvency and have successfully entered into an arrangement with their creditors from those that have not. In addition, a two-factor model for predicting the odds of an arrangement has been proposed. The research was conducted using a population of companies listed on stock exchanges in Warsaw that initiated restructuring...
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Commercial function as a treat to the monument - 25 years of experience in the commercialization of monuments in Gdansk, Poland
PublicationThe principles of the market economy adopted in Poland in the nineties have significantly touched the resources of immovable monuments. As a result, monuments have become a product of culture subject to the rules of the free market; and state ownership, patronage and decision-making practice has now been replaced by private interest. Practical monument use has also changed with the shift in ownership of objects after privatization...