The paper presents possibility of applying a structural times series modeling with explanatory and intervention variables as a tool capable for explaining the changes in the monthly number of fatalities and seriously injured in traffic accidents. The analysis covers regional level and takes into consideration traffic accidents data of two regions: Pomorskie and Warmia-Mazury. In addition short-term forecasts for the two regions...

The reader will find in this study road safety modelling theory and time-series analysis techniques, applications to long period data of injury accidents and casualities, aggregared at national level

This paper presents a review of time-series analysis of road safety trends, aggregatedat a national level, which has been performed in the period 2000 – 12 and applied to Europeannational data sets covering long time periods. It provides a guideline and set of best practices inthe area of time-series modelling and identifies the latest methods and applications of nationalroad safety trend analysis...

In Poland, road inspections were implemented in June 2014 on all national roads. Previously conducted traffic surveys mainly related to the technical condition of roads, signs and markings; other safety issues were overlooked. The main problem that occurs during inspection is an inspector’s subjective qualitative assessment which affects the classification of the sources of hazard on the road.. The paper presents an analysis of...

Run-off-road accidents tend to be very severe because when a vehicle leaves the road, it will often crash into a solid obstacle (tree, pole, supports, front wall of a culvert, barrier). A statistical analysis of the data shows that Poland's main roadside hazard is trees and the severity of vehicles striking a tree in a run-off-road crash. The risks are particularly high in north-west Poland with many of the roads lined up with...