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dr inż. Marian Witold Kembłowski
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total: 7
Catalog Publications
Year 2018
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Risk Diagnosis and Management with BBN for Civil Engineering Projects during Construction and Operation
PublicationThe authors demonstrate how expert knowledge about the construction and operation phases combined with monitoring data can be utilized for the diagnosis and management of risks typical to large civil engineering projects. The methodology chosen for estimating the probabilities of risk elements is known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). Using a BBN model one can keep on updating the risk event probabilities as the new evidence...
Year 2017
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Game Theory Analysis of Bidding for a Construction Contract
PublicationThe authors are concerned with a bidding problem. There are two companies (P1 and P2) bidding for a highway construction project. In order to be more competitive, P1 considers buying a new gravel pit near the construction site. The basic cost of the pit is known to both companies. However, there is also an additional, hidden, cost (C) known only to P1. P2 is uncertain whether the hidden cost is C = 0 or C = x. P1 plans to bid for...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
Year 2016
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Modelowanie ryzyka inwestycyjnego przy użyciu OOBN
PublicationCelem artykułu jest przedstawienie sieci Bayesa zorientowanych obiektowo (ang. Object Oriented Bayesian Networks – OOBN). Umożliwiają one dekompozycję złożonego modelu na pojedyncze obiekty, które reprezentują nie tylko różne grupy zagadnień, ale także pozwalają na modelowanie zależności czasowychmiędzy obiektami.Wykorzystanie obiektowych sieci Bayesa zaprezentowano na przykładzie projektu rewitalizacji. Przedstawiono zarówno wady,...
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Ocena efektywności monitoringu obiektów inżynierskich za pomocą sieci Bayesa
PublicationW swojej pracy autorzy zaproponowali zastosowanie sieci Bayesa do projektowania monitoringu i podejmowania decyzji w działaniach eksploatacyjnych. Ponadto pokazano dwie metody oceny wartości informacji diagnostycznych. Pierwszą z nich jest wartość oczekiwana EVSI (ang. Expected Value of Sample Information), która stanowi podstawę do wyboru spośród alternatywnych obserwacji symptomów zmiennej diagnostycznej. Natomiast drugą metodą...
Year 2015
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Observation value analysis - integral part of Bayesian diagnostics
PublicationDetailed subject of the research is to analyse the value of the observation, which is a part of preposterior analysis. For the presented network, the main objective was to determine, conducting of which of three tests is the most valuable from the perspective of determining possible need or possibility to omission expensive technical expertise. The main advantage of preposterior analysis is answering the question which of the considered...
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Observation Value Analysis – Integral Part of Bayesian Diagnostics
PublicationThe decision making process, in general, is understood as a process of selecting one of the available solutions to the problem. One of possible approaches supporting the process is Bayesian statistical decision theory providing a mathematical model to make decisions of a technical nature in conditions of uncertainty. Regarding above, a detailed subject of the research is to analyze the value of the observation, which is a part...
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