Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting

Artur Opaliński; Dudek Grzegorz

doi:10.1109/epe.2016.7521810

Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting

Abstract

Energy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid prediction model, where best exemplars from a possibly large set of different simple short-time load forecasting models are automatically selected based on their past performance by a multi-agent system with history-based weighting. The increase of prediction accuracy has been verified on real load data from the Polish power system.

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Authors (2)

Artur Opaliński dr inż.
Dudek Grzegorz dr hab
- Politechnika Częstochowska Wydział Elektryczny Instytut Informatyki

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Category:: Conference activity
Type:: publikacja w wydawnictwie zbiorowym recenzowanym (także w materiałach konferencyjnych)
Title of issue:: Electric Power Engineering (EPE), 2016 17th International Scientific Conference on strony 1 - 8
Language:: English
Publication year:: 2016
Bibliographic description:: Opaliński A., Grzegorz D.: Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting// Electric Power Engineering (EPE), 2016 17th International Scientific Conference on/ : IEEE eXplore, 2016, s.1-8
DOI:: Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.1109/epe.2016.7521810
Verified by:: Gdańsk University of Technology