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Abstract
Motivation: In recent years, the prices of liquid fuels in Poland have been rising , negatively affecting the country’s economy and the daily life of its inhabitants. Consequently, there is a need for effective forecasting of prices in fuel markets, as this could enable entrepreneurs and consumers to make more informed decisions. Aim: The objective of the article was to forecast the retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel fuel using causal-effect econometric models. The study uses historical data on fuel prices in Poland from 2007.Q1 to 2022.Q2 and the forecast period is to cover the next four quarters. Materials and methods: In order to identify the most significant variables influencing the retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland, the relevant literature was consulted. The final models were constructed using the ordinary least squares method and were validated through selected statistical tests. Results: Based on the constructed models, successful forecasts were made for EU95 gasoline and diesel oil. The ob-tained values were subjected to ex-post analysis, which resulted in an RMSPE of 3.15% and 4.79% respectively, indicating a positive outcome.
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Details
- Category:
- Articles
- Type:
- artykuły w czasopismach
- Published in:
-
Catallaxy
no. 8,
pages 103 - 112,
ISSN: 2544-090X - Language:
- English
- Publication year:
- 2024
- Bibliographic description:
- Surowiec M., Sobiechowska-Ziegert A.: Forecasting of retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland// Catallaxy -,iss. 2 (2024), s.103-112
- DOI:
- Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.24136/cxy.2023.007
- Sources of funding:
-
- COST_FREE
- Verified by:
- Gdańsk University of Technology
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