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Injury Prediction Models for Onshore Road Network Development

Abstract

Integrating different modes of transport (road, rail, air and water) is important for port cities. To accommodate this need, new transport hubs must be built such as airports or sea ports. If ports are to grow, they must be accessible, a feature which is best achieved by building new roads, including fast roads. Poland must develop a network of fast roads that will provide good access to ports. What is equally important is to upgrade the network of national roads to complement fast roads. A key criterion in this case is to ensure that the roads are efficient to minimise time lost for road users and safe. With safety standards and safety management practices varying vastly across the EU, Directive 2008/96/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council was a way to ensure that countries follow procedures for assessing the impact of road projects on road safety and conduct road safety audits, road safety management and road safety inspections. The main goal of the research was to build mathematical models to combine road safety measures, i.e. injury density (DI) and accident density (DA), with road and traffic factors on longer sections, all based on risk analysis. The practical objective is to use these models to develop tools for assessing how new road projects will impact road safety. Because previous research on models to help estimate injuries (I) or injury density (DI) on long sections was scarce, the authors addressed that problem in their work. The idea goes back to how Poland is introducing procedures for assessing the effects of infrastructure on safety and developing a method to estimate accident indicators to support economic analysis for new roads, a solution applied in JASPERS. Another reason for the research was Poland’s insufficient and ineffective pool of road safety management tools in Poland. The paper presents analyses of several models which achieved satisfactory results. They are consistent with the work of other researchers and the outcomes of previous research conducted by the authors.

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Category:
Articles
Type:
artykuł w czasopiśmie wyróżnionym w JCR
Published in:
Polish Maritime Research no. 26, pages 93 - 103,
ISSN: 1233-2585
Language:
English
Publication year:
2019
Bibliographic description:
Kustra W., Żukowska J., Budzyński M., Jamroz K.: Injury Prediction Models for Onshore Road Network Development// Polish Maritime Research. -Vol. 26, iss. 2 (2019), s.93-103
DOI:
Digital Object Identifier (open in new tab) 10.2478/pomr-2019-0029
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  80. Gdańsk University of Technology Faculty od Civil and Environmental Engineering Narutowicza 11, 80-233 Gdansk Poland open in new tab
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