Search results for: WEATHER FORECASTS, WEATHER ROUTING, HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
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Preference-based evolutionary multi-objective optimization in ship weather routing
PublicationIn evolutionary multi-objective optimization (EMO) the aim is to find a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. Such approach may be applied to multiple real-life problems, including weather routing (WR) of ships. The route should be optimal in terms of passage time, fuel consumption and safety of crew and cargo while taking into account dynamically changing weather conditions. Additionally it must not violate any navigational constraints...
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Ship weather routing optimization with dynamic constraints based on reliable synchronous roll prediction
PublicationShip routing process taking into account weather conditions is a constrained multi-objective optimization problem and it should consider various optimization criteria and constraints. Formulation of a stability-related, dynamic route optimization constraint is presented in this paper. One of the key objectives of a cross ocean sailing is finding a compromise between ship safety and economics of operation. This compromise should...
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Akustyczna analiza parametrów ruchu drogowego z wykorzystaniem informacji o hałasie oraz uczenia maszynowego
PublicationCelem rozprawy było opracowanie akustycznej metody analizy parametrów ruchu drogowego. Zasada działania akustycznej analizy ruchu drogowego zapewnia pasywną metodę monitorowania natężenia ruchu. W pracy przedstawiono wybrane metody uczenia maszynowego w kontekście analizy dźwięku (ang.Machine Hearing). Przedstawiono metodologię klasyfikacji zdarzeń w ruchu drogowym z wykorzystaniem uczenia maszynowego. Przybliżono podstawowe...
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Assessing the Effects of the Road Surface and Weather Conditions on Road Safety
PublicationWhen transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic (can be controlled) and partly stochastic (random and unpredictable). The set of crash contributing factors can be classified...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublicationThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Determining and visualizing safe motion parameters of a ship navigating in severe weather conditions
PublicationThe paper presents a method of determining, organizing and displaying ship collision avoidance information, which is based on the Collision Threat Parameters Area (CTPA) technique. The method makes it possible to visualize navigational threats as well as possible collision avoidance manoeuvres. The solution is focused on supporting navigation in severe weather conditions. Normally collision avoidance decisions are made taking into...
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EVOLUTIONARY MULTI–OBJECTIVE WEATHER ROUTING OF SAILBOATS
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective method, which optimises the route of a sailboat. The presented method makes use of an evolutionary multi-objective (EMO) algorithm, which performs the optimisation according to three objective functions: total passage time, a sum of all course alterations made during the voyage and the average angle of heel. The last two of the objective functions reflect the navigator’s and passenger’s comfort,...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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The Impact of Weather on Traffic Speed in Urban Area
PublicationThe issue of the impact of weather conditions on trip speed of vehicles has been studied for a long time and it is still the subject of many scientific researches. The impact of atmospheric conditions on the speed with which drivers drive their vehicles seems to be obvious. Good weather conditions, sunny weather with good visibility surely provokes higher speed while rainfall, wind...
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Space Weather
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublicationThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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WEATHER
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Effects of biotransport and hydro-meteorological conditions on transport of trace elements in the Scott River (Bellsund, Spitsbergen)
PublicationThe shaping of surface water chemistry in the Svalbard Archipelago is strongly dependent on the geology of the catchment and the process of long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants (LRATP). It was found that the dissolved trace elements in the Scott River, which catchment is characterized by a decreasing degree of glaciation, were of the natural origin (i.a. weathering and dissolution of local geological substratum). The...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailboats considering wave resistance
PublicationThe article presents a method to determine the route of a sailing vessel with the aid of deterministic algorithms. The method assumes that the area in which the route is to be determined is limited and the basic input data comprise the wind vector and the speed characteristic of the vessel. Compared to previous works of the authors, the present article additionally takes into account the effect of sea waves with the resultant resistance...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublicationThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis
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