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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic

Abstrakt

Producing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation ex- pectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-makin g of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expec-tations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interde- pendences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementa- tion.

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Informacje szczegółowe

Kategoria:
Publikacja w czasopiśmie
Typ:
artykuły w czasopismach recenzowanych i innych wydawnictwach ciągłych
Opublikowano w:
EQUILIBRIUM Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy nr 10, wydanie 3, strony 9 - 26,
ISSN: 1689-765X
Język:
angielski
Rok wydania:
2015
Opis bibliograficzny:
Szyszko M., Tura-Gawron K.: Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic// EQUILIBRIUM Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. -Vol. 10., (2015), s.9-26
DOI:
Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.12775/equil.2015.022
Weryfikacja:
Politechnika Gdańska

wyświetlono 83 razy

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