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Search results for: CREDIT SCORING, RETAIL LOANS, CONSUMER FINANCE, PRICING, SIMULATIONS
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A Simulation Model for Risk and Pricing Competition in the Retail Lending Market
PublicationWe propose a simulation model of the retail lending market with two types of agents: borrowers searching for low interest rates and lenders competing through risk-based pricing. We show that individual banks observe adverse selection, even if every lender applies the same pricing strategy and a credit scoring model of comparable discrimination power. Additionally, the model justifies the reverse-S shape of the response rate curve....
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Economics of credit scoring management
PublicationCredit scoring models constitute an inevitable element of modern risk and profitability management in retail financial lending institutions. Quality,or separation power of a credit scoring model is usually assessed with the Gini coefficient. Generally, the higher Gini coefficient the better, as in this way a bank can increase number of good customers and/or reject more bad applicants. In...
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Which Curve Fits Best: Fitting ROC Curve Models to Empirical Credit-Scoring Data
PublicationIn the practice of credit-risk management, the models for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are helpful in describing the shape of an ROC curve, estimating the discriminatory power of a scorecard, and generating ROC curves without underlying data. The primary purpose of this study is to review the ROC curve models proposed in the literature, primarily in biostatistics, and to fit them to actual credit-scoring ROC data...
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The shape of an ROC curve in the evaluation of credit scoring models
PublicationThe AUC, i.e. the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, or its scaled version, the Gini coefficient, are the standard measures of the discriminatory power of credit scoring. Using binormal ROC curve models, we show how the shape of the curves affects the economic benefits of using scoring models with the same AUC. Based on the results, we propose that the shape parameter of the fitted ROC curve is reported...
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How to model ROC curves - a credit scoring perspective
PublicationROC curves, which derive from signal detection theory, are widely used to assess binary classifiers in various domains. The AUROC (area under the ROC curve) ratio or its transformations (the Gini coefficient) belong to the most widely used synthetic measures of the separation power of classification models, such as medical diagnostic tests or credit scoring. Frequently a need arises to model an ROC curve. In the biostatistical...
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Bifractal receiver operating characteristic curves: a formula for generating receiver operating characteristic curves in credit-scoring contexts
PublicationThis paper formulates a mathematical model for generating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves without underlying data. Credit scoring practitioners know that the Gini coefficient usually drops if it is only calculated on cases above the cutoff. This fact is not a mathematical necessity, however, as it is theoretically possible to get an ROC curve that keeps the same Gini coefficient no matter how big a share of lowest...
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Risk Scoring Models for Trade Credit in Small and Medium Enterprises
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Karol Flisikowski dr inż.
PeopleKarol Flisikowski works as Associate Professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology. He is responsible for teaching descriptive and mathematical statistics (in Polish and English), as well as scientific research in the field of social statistics. He has been a participant in many national and international conferences, where he has presented the results...
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International Review of Retail Distribution and Consumer Research
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Błażej Kochański dr
PeopleBłażej Kochański is an assistant professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Management and Economics of Gdańsk University of Technology, banking risk expert. He worked for banks in Poland and Europe, as a risk specialist, planning and analysis manager, chief risk officer, supervisory board member and management consultant. He built numerous credit risk management models, successfully managed credit...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
PeopleEducation Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Degree / scientific title Habilitation – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2015) Ph.D. – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2004) Employment Gdańsk University of Technology - associate professor (since 2017); assistant professor...
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Data on LEGO sets release dates and worldwide retail prices combined with aftermarket transaction prices in Poland between June 2018 and June 2023
PublicationThe dataset contains LEGO bricks sets item count and pricing history for AI-based set pricing prediction. The data spans the timeframe from June 2018 to June 2023. The data was obtained from three sources: Brickset.com (LEGO sets retail prices, release dates, and IDs), Lego.com official web page (ID number of each set that was released by Lego, its retail prices, the current status of the set) and promoklocki.pl web page (the retail...
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Data on LEGO sets release dates and retail prices combined with aftermarket transaction prices between June 2018 and June 2023.
Open Research DataThe dataset contains LEGO bricks sets item count and pricing history for AI-based set pricing prediction.
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
PublicationThe objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers,...
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Muhammad Mushafiq MSc
PeopleDoctoral student at the Faculty of Management and Economics. Muhammad Mushafiq has high interest in the research of corporate finance and risk management. He previously holds Masters of Science in Finance with Magna Cum Laude and Bachelor of Business Administration in Marketing and Finance with highest position. His research has appeared in the Journal of Retailing & Consumer Services, International Journal of Emerging Markets...
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Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households
PublicationThis paper is an evaluation of the common macro-economic, micro-economic, and social factors affecting households’ financial situations. Moreover, the author’s objective was to develop a fuzzy logic model for forecasting fluctuations in the number of nonperforming consumer loans in a country using the example of Poland. This study represents one of the first attempts in the global literature to develop such a forecasting model...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Maria Jastrzębska dr hab.
PeopleMaria Jastrzębska is an employee of the Department of Finance. She is the author of over 170 publications, including 8 monographs - Financial Management of Municipalities. Theoretical aspects; Budgetary policy of local government units; Debt management of local government units; Finances of local government units; Risk management in the activity of local government units with special consideration of catastrophic risk (co-author...
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The importance of CEFTA 2006 for Western Balkan countries
PublicationFree foreign trade is one of the most important issues all over the world. The impact of bilateral trade can be studied both from economic as well as political perspectives; when it improves economic development, it also creates the conditions for international stability. The aim of the article is to conduct a comparison of the changes to export trade flow in the Central European Free Trade Agreement 2006, with reference to countries...
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ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND CREATIVITY - summer term 2021/22
e-Learning CoursesThe aim of the course is to acquaint students with entrepreneurship as a phenomenon, increase their pro-entrepreneurial attitudes and develop skills necessary in entrepreneurship process. Special emphasis will be placed on fashion business as representing creative industry. The main objectives are as follows: Learn how to prepare a business model canvas and business plan. Know the backstage of the fashion industry. Identify...
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ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND CREATIVITY - winter term 2024/25
e-Learning CoursesThe aim of the course is to acquaint students with entrepreneurship as a phenomenon, increase their pro-entrepreneurial attitudes and develop skills necessary in entrepreneurship process. Special emphasis will be placed on fashion business as representing creative industry. The main objectives are as follows: Learn how to prepare a business model canvas and business plan. Know the backstage of the fashion industry. Identify...