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Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from colission of ships

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In this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to determine the probability (Po) of correct execution of critical manoeuvres during ship’s entering and leaving the port as well as the probabilities Pj (j = 1, 2, 3, ..., 7) of incorrect execution of critical manoeuvres by a ship, that leads to marine accidents. It was assumed that such accidents result from: ship’s grounding on port approaching fairway, collision with a ship on port approching fairway, collision with a pierhead during passing through port entrance, collision with a hydrotechnical structure during ship’s passing through port channels, collision with a port quay during coming alongside it and collision with a ship already moored to the quay. The probability (Po) was assumed a measure of safe execution of a critical manoeuvre. The probability characterizes possibility of avoiding any collision during ship’s entering and leaving the port. The probability Pa = 1 – Po was assumed a measure of occurrence of a collsion and - consequently - marine accident. The probability Pa was interpreted as a sum of the probabilities Pj (j = 1, 2, 3, ..., 7) of occurrence of all the selected events. In summing up the paper, attention was drawn to its merits which - in opinion of this author - are crucial for research on real process of accidents during entering the port and leaving it by sea-going ship in difficult navigation conditions.

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Kategoria:
Publikacja w czasopiśmie
Typ:
artykuł w czasopiśmie wyróżnionym w JCR
Opublikowano w:
Polish Maritime Research nr 21, strony 9 - 13,
ISSN: 1233-2585
Język:
angielski
Rok wydania:
2014
Opis bibliograficzny:
Girtler J.: Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from colission of ships// Polish Maritime Research. -Vol. 21, iss. 1(81) (2014), s.9-13
Weryfikacja:
Politechnika Gdańska

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