Abstrakt
This article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration of the three different phases of the crisis in enterprises. The research is based on 185 companies (60 bankrupt and 125 non-bankrupt rms) listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. For each company the author has calculated 14 different financial ratios for each of the six years before classifying the firm as bankrupt or non-bankrupt. The author has also done research to identify specific macroeconomic variables affecting the bankruptcy process of the companies in Poland. This provided specification of the manner and how strongly the various factors affect the quantity and intensity of bankruptcy applications in this region of Europe. Additionally, with the use of selected macroeconomic variables the author programmed a fuzzy logic model to forecast the general intensity of bankruptcies in Poland. This study is the first attempt at using fuzzy logic to predict the risk of bankruptcy in a macro aspect. The results demonstrate the great potential of this method. The received effectiveness of the fuzzy logic model is at the level of 84%.
Cytowania
-
4
CrossRef
-
0
Web of Science
-
0
Scopus
Autor (1)
Cytuj jako
Pełna treść
- Wersja publikacji
- Accepted albo Published Version
- Licencja
- otwiera się w nowej karcie
Słowa kluczowe
Informacje szczegółowe
- Kategoria:
- Publikacja w czasopiśmie
- Typ:
- artykuły w czasopismach recenzowanych i innych wydawnictwach ciągłych
- Opublikowano w:
-
Financial Internet Quarterly
nr 13,
strony 22 - 35,
ISSN: - Język:
- angielski
- Rok wydania:
- 2017
- Opis bibliograficzny:
- Korol T.: Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland// E-FINANSE. -Vol. 13., nr. 2 (2017), s.22-35
- DOI:
- Cyfrowy identyfikator dokumentu elektronicznego (otwiera się w nowej karcie) 10.1515/fiqf-2016-0020
- Bibliografia: test
-
- Asgharian, H. (2003). Are Highly Leveraged Firms more Sensitive to an Economic Downturn? The European Journal of Finance 9, 219-241. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Baldwin, J., Gray, T., Johnson, J., Proctor, J. (1997). Failing Concerns -Business Bankruptcy in Canada, Ministry of Statistics of Canadian Government 61.
- Bhattacharjee, A., Highson, C., Holly, S., Kattuman, P. (2003). Business Failure In UK And US Quoted Firms-Impact Of Macroeconomic Instability And The Role Of Legal Institutions, Applied Economics Department Working Paper, Cambridge University. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Brown, D., James, Ch., Mooradian, R. (1994). Asset Sales by Financially Distressed Firms. Journal of Corporate Finance 1, 233-257. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Carter, R., van Auken, H. (2006). Small Firm Bankruptcy. Journal of Small Business Management, 44, 493-512. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Castellanos, R. (2001). Small and Medium Young Enterprises' Strengths and Weaknesses -Empirical Study of a Sample of Industrial Firms. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, Volume 8, no 1, 28-36. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Chen, N., Ribeiro, B., Vieira, A., Chen, A. (2013). Clustering and Visualization Of Bankruptcy Trajectory Using Self- Organizing Map. Expert Systems with Applications, No. 40, 385-393. "e-Finanse" 2017, vol. 13 / nr 2 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Dahiya, S., Klapper, L. (2007), Who survives? A cross-country comparison. Journal of Financial Stability 3, 261-278. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Dyrberg, A. (2005). A Comparative Analysis of The Determinants of Financial Distress in French, Italian and Spanish Firms. Working Papers, Danmarks Nationalbank, No. 26. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Dyrberg, A. (2004). Firms in Financial Distress -An Exploratory Analysis. Working Papers, Danmarks Nationalbank, No. 17. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Faria, J., Carneiro, F. (2001). Does High Inflation Affect Growth in The Long and Short Run? Journal of Applied Economics, Volume IV, no 1, 89-105. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Fitzpatrick, P. (1934). Transitional Stages of A Business Failure. The Accounting Review. 9. 337-440/
- Haswell, S., Holmes, S. (1989). Estimating the Small Business Failure Rate-A Reappraisal. Journal of Small Business Management, 27, 68-74.
- Hunter, J., Isachenkova, N. (2006), Aggregate Economy Risk and Company Failure: An Examination of UK Quoted Firms in The Early 1990s. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28, 911-919. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Iturriaga, F.J., Sanz, I.P. (2015). Bankruptcy Visualization and Prediction Using Neural Networks -A Study of U.S. Commercial Banks. Expert Systems with Applications, no. 42: 2857-2869.
- Jardin, P. (2015). Bankruptcy Prediction using Terminal Failure Processes. European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 242, issue 1, 286 -303. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Kaiser, U. (2001). Moving in and out of Financial Distress: Evidence for Newly Founded Services Sector Firms, ZEW Discussion Paper 01-09. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Kash, T., Darling, J. (1998). Crisis Management-Prevention, Diagnosis and Intervention. Leadership and Organization Development Journal, 19/4, 179-186. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Kleinman, G., Anandarajan, A. (1999). The Usefulness of Off-Balance Sheet Variables as Predictors of Auditors' Going Concern Opinions -An Empirical Analysis. Managerial Auditing Journal, 14/6, 273-285. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Koke, J. (2002). Determinants of Acquisition and Failure -Evidence from Corporate Germany. Structural Change and Economics Dynamics, 13, 457-484.
- Korol, T., Korodi, A. (2011). An Evaluation of Effectiveness of Fuzzy Logic Model in Predicting the Business Bankruptcy. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 3 (1), 92-107. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Laitinen, E., Gin Chong, H. (1998), Early-Warning System for Crisis in Smes, Preliminary Evidence From Finland And The UK. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, Volume 6, no 1, 89-102. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lin, F., Liang, D., Yeh, C.C., Huang, J.C. (2014). Novel Feature Selection Methods to Financial Distress Prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 2472-2483. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lizal, L. (2005). Determinants of Financial Distress: What Drives Bankruptcy in a Transition Economy? The Czech Republic Case, CERGE-EI papers, Praha. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Lukason, O., Hoffman, R. (2014). Firm Bankruptcy Probability and Causes -An Integrated Study. International Journal of Business and Management, vol. 9, issue 11, 80. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Nocetti, D. (2006). Central Bank's Value at Risk and Financial Crises: An Application to the 2001 Argentine Crisis. Journal of Applied Economics, volume IX, no 2, 381-402. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Ooghe, H., Prijcker, S. (2006). Failure Processes and Causes of Company Bankruptcy -A Typology. Working Paper of Universiteit Gent, 37-44. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Owen, S. (2001). Failures in B2C Companies -Two Examples And Lessons For New Players, Working Papers, University of Sydney. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Pearce, J., Michael, S. (2006). Strategies To Prevent Economic Recessions From Causing Business Failure. Business Horizons Journal 49, 201-209. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Perz, P., Znamirowski, P. (2003). Zarzadzanie ryzykiem walutowym w przedsiebiorstwach, Rynek Terminowy 22, 35-43.
- Richardson, B., Nwankwo, S., Richardson, S. (1994). Understanding The Causes of Business Failure Crises. Management Decision Journal, vol. 32, no 4: 9-21 otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Sun, J., Li, H., Huang, Q., He, K. (2014). Predicting Financial Distress and Corporate Failure -A Review from The State- Of-The-Art Definitions, Modeling, Sampling, and Featuring Approaches, Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 57, 41-56. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Tsai, Ch. (2014). Combining Cluster Analysis with Classifier Ensembles to Predict Financial Distress. Information Fusion, vol. 16, 46-58. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Watson, J., Everett, J. (1998). Small Business Failure And External Risk Factors. Small Business Economics Journal, 11, 371-390.
- Yu-Chiang, H., Ansell, J. (2007). Measuring Retail Company Performance Using Credit Scoring Techniques. European Journal of Operational Research 183, 1595-1606
- Zadeh, L. (1965). Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, No. 8(3), 338-353. otwiera się w nowej karcie
- Weryfikacja:
- Politechnika Gdańska
wyświetlono 133 razy