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Search results for: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION PROJECTIONS, EXPECTATION SURVEYS
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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SPATIAL APPROACH TO HETEROGENEITY OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EURO AREA
PublicationIn this article, we examine the spatial heterogeneities in inflation expectations of the euro area consumers. We expect to find them heterogeneous in our research period of 2001-2016. Contrary to standard examination of heterogeneity, a spatial correlation analysis is applied by referring to global and local correlation measures. It is performed with the economic distance-based weights (the difference in HICP rates). Application...
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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INFLUENCE OF LOAD AND INFLATION PRESSURE ON THE TYRE ROLLING RESISTANCE
PublicationTyre load and inflation pressure are important factors controlling rolling resistance of road vehicles. The article presents results obtained in the Technical University of Gdańsk during laboratory and road measurements of different car tyres rolling on different pavements. The knowledge of rolling resistance characteristics is important for modelling car dynamics as well as fuel consumption. It is also necessary to establish proper...
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Inflation rate (In percentage) in Iran
Open Research DataCurrently, a major concern of the Iranian economy is high inflation. Increasing prices of basic goods, and their increase in wages do not follow. At the same time the unemployment rate has raised. The following data set present the inflation rate between 2010-2020 (forecast).
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The influence of inflation pressure and ambient temperature on the value of the truck tires rolling resistance
PublicationThe articlediscusses the effect of inflation pressure and the ambient temperature on the value of the rolling resistance of truck tires which directly translates into fuel consumption. For this purpose, a series of measurements was made at two ambient temperatures (at 25°C and -15°C), using different pumping pressures.
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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Central banks and the weaponization of inflation
EventsSerdecznie zapraszamy na kolejny webinar z cyklu Rethinking Economics Gdańsk.
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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Research on operational characteristics of tyres with run flat insert
PublicationThe paper describes results of research on heavy vehicle tyre with Run Flat VFI insert. The experiment has included the determination of heat generation, rolling resistanceand radial stifnessof two different tyre designes (textile and steel carcass). The results have been used for the purpose of ewalution of tyre operating characteristics. The study included research on non-inflated tyre properties. The purpose of the paper is...
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INFLUENCE OF TEST CONDITIONS ON TYRE/ROAD NOISE MEASURED BY THE DRUM METHOD
PublicationTyre/road noise is one of the most important environmental problems related to road traffic. Nowadays a few standard procedures of tyre/road noise measurements are in use. Unfortunately, measurement conditions specified within relevant standards are very different. For example, procedure described in ISO 11819-2 used for pavement investigations requires tyre load of 3200 N and capped inflation pressure of 200 kPa. At the same time...
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INFLUENCE OF MEASURING CONDITIONS ON TYRE/ROAD NOISE
PublicationA decisive factor for the development of tyres and road surfaces is the ability to conduct representative and reproducible measurements of selected characteristics related to the interaction of tyres and road surfaces. In terms of tyre/road noise measurements in Europe two methods described in ISO/FDIS 11819-2 and ECE Regulation No.117 are used. The latter is compulsory for assigning the tyre noise labels. The methodologies differ...
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Influence of IED Explosion on Lateral Dynamics of a Vehicle
PublicationThe paper describes field test results of heavy vehicle tire blow-outs. Both civilian and military vehicles are subjected to sudden loss of inflation pressure in one or more wheels, often accompanied by serious tire damage. Selected results related to the lateral dynamic of vehicle during and just after explosive tire destruction are reported
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GDP growth in Iran
Open Research DataThe economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the fastest growing in the Middle East. Iran should not only be associated with crude oil industry but also other areas of the economy. The sanctions that hindered oil exports from Iran meant that the authorities had to take measures to increase exports of other products. There was an increase in...
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ANALYSIS OF ROLLING RESISTANCE OF TIRES WITH RUN FLAT INSERT APPLYING DRUM METHOD AND RADIAL CHARACTERISTIC
PublicationThis paper presents analysis of rolling resistance of tires with RUN FLAT insert applying drum method and radial characteristic. The conducted studies indicated changes in operational properties of wheel, occurring as a result of inflation pressure drop in the wheel. As regards radial elasticity, such changes result in significant drop of radial rigidity and increase of static deflection and increase of tire rolling resistance....
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Analysis of Rolling Resistance of Tires With Run Flat Insert
PublicationRun flat properties are required for tires intended for special applications like military or rescue vehicles. Run-Flat inserts make possible to drive a car or truck, with certain restrictions, also when inflation pressure is very low or non-existing (after tire damage). Rolling resistance of tires rolling the inserts increases considerably in relation to the rolling resistance of properly inflated tires. This paper presents results...
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Changes in the structure of Armenia’s labour resources between 1993 and 2020
PublicationThe article characterises the structure of Armenia’s labour resources in the period between1993 and 2020. It aims to assess the changes on the Armenian labour market by means of a deductive analysis of historical data and observation of changes in the structure of resources based on generally available macroeconomic data. The authors evaluate these processes against the background of demographic and economic changes, by presenting...
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Annual growth of House price index in European Union in 2006-2017
Open Research DataThe financial crisis of 2008 has caused a number of changes in the investment of both companies and individuals. One of the widely invested assets became the real estate market. The decline in real estate prices was noted in 2009 and 2012-2014. The highest decrease in property prices was indicated in Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia and...
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Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublicationThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
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Numerical Analysis of Mice Carotid Arteries’ Response Emphasizing the Importance of Material Law Constants’ Validation
PublicationIn this paper, a detailed validation of the passive material properties of mice carotid arteries and constants of the Fung and Holzapfel hyperelastic material laws is conducted by means of static nonlinear FEM analyses. The response of the carotid arteries in an inflation test is studied here for the following mouse models: wild-type, mdx, sgcd−/−, Eln+/+, Eln+/−, Fbln5+/+, and Fbln5−/−. All FEM computations are conducted on models...
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Energy Security of Polish Consumers in 2004-2021
Open Research DataEnergy security is one of the most important components of economic security. It is influenced not only by access to energy sources and the economic situation of the state and the individual consumer. In the years 2004–2021, energy security of the individual consumer in the economic dimension significantly improved. This was due to several factors:1....
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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Management and economic of engineer projects
e-Learning CoursesLectures - 05 October-30 November, 2023 1. Project management: Engineers, projects, management, planning and scheduling, personnel and organizational, team building, project control, estimating and ordering. 2. Team building: personality types, team effectiveness. 3. Project management: WBS, Gantt, Earned Value Method, critical path, risk management. 4. Economic Engineering: Establishing economic equivalence, Interest: cost...
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Economic crisis in Croatia
PublicationCroatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July 1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialistic republic to an independent country recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in the first decade of the 21st century. Croatia has been hit by a global crisis which turned out to be a huge external shock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter the economy through...
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Tyre/road noise measurements on ISO tracks according to the UNECE Regulation 117
PublicationWithin the Polish-Norwegian research project ELANORE, a limited Round Robin Test has been performed on 3 ISO tracks in Northern Europe. The basic objective of the project is to improve the EU directive on labelling of tyres for noise and rolling resistance, and this directive is based on the measurement procedures defined in the UN ECE Reg.117. The same test car, test tyres and measurement equipment as well as personnel were used...
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Noise and Rolling Resistance Properties of Various Types of Winter Tyres Compared to Normal Car Tyres
PublicationTo cope with winter weather conditions, potentially including snow and ice, it is common to use winter tyres, or ”all-seasons” tyres assumed to be safe both in summer and winter. In some northern countries, winter tyres are mandatory. Traditionally, it has been assumed that winter tyres are noisier than normal tyres (here called summer tyres) and winter tyres equipped with studs are assumed to be very noisy.This paper presents...
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Nonlinear material identification of heterogeneous isogeometric Kirchhoff–Love shells
PublicationThis work presents a Finite Element Model Updating inverse methodology for reconstructing heterogeneous materialdistributions based on an efficient isogeometric shell formulation. It uses nonlinear hyperelastic material models suitable fordescribing incompressible material behavior as well as initially curved shells. The material distribution is discretized by bilinearelements such that the nodal values...
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The Business Environment of Georgia and Ukraine: Approaches to a Comparative Analysis
PublicationThe formation of a favourable business environment and the intensification of entrepreneurial activity on this basis is one of the priorities of economic policy of governments around the world. The aim of this article is to conduct a comparative analysis of some of the characteristics of the business environment of Georgia and Ukraine. The theoretical basis of the study is the understanding of the business environment as a necessary...
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
PublicationThe objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers,...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Future of nature, our future. A preregistered report on future time perspective, social value orientation, and pro-environmental outcomes based on data from Poland and Sweden
PublicationIntroduction: The objective of the study was to examine the role of social value orientation and future time perspective to account for individual differences in pro-environmental behaviors, intentions, and opinions about the link between pro-environmental action and pandemic threat (three separate models) in Polish and Swedish samples expected to differ in rate of pro-environmental behaviors (higher in Sweden). We hypothesized...
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Survey on opportunities and barriers in lighting controls
PublicationThis report summarizes a survey performed in eight countries on the status quo of daylight and electric lighting control systems. Feedback from more than 100 international experts (building / facility managers and planers) was evaluated. The aim of the survey was to identify the perception of the different possibilities of the current lighting control solutions and the expectations about the control systems. The survey aims to...