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Search results for: financial crisis
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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International trade and containerization - certain trends after the financial crisis of 2007-2008
PublicationThe following article presents the situation on international trade and the global maritime container transport market after the financial crisis of 2007-2008. In the first part the author focuses on describing the specifics of containerization in global trade. The following parts include characteristic of container terminal operators and shipping lines. Finally, significant changes in the global container handling market after...
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Improving the regulation of the derivatives market as an objective prerequisite for sustainable development of the global financial system
PublicationThe development of financial markets is characterized by the emergence of new financial instruments, in particular derivatives, the risk level analysis of which is complicated. Counterparties are not always fully aware of and do not adequately assess the potential risks of derivatives, which may lead to large financial losses and sometimes bankruptcies. The purpose of the study is to generalize approaches to regulating derivative...
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Countries with the highest and the lowest electricity consumption per capita in 1998, kWh / c
Open Research DataFor several years, domestic electricity consumption has been growing (the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption for 2005-2010 is 2.75%). The increase in demand for electricity is related to the continuous development of the Polish economy, the enrichment of society and the growing, year by year, industrial production. It should be noted...
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Tax Policy Tools of Selected European Countries as a Mechanism for Counteracting the Effects of the Crisis Caused by the COVID-19 Disease Pandemic
PublicationCrises play an important role in a economics life. They are common and it is impossible to omit them. This following study investigates the concept of ‘crisis’ in the context of economic situation. This text describes the most important financial crises that took place in the past. After that authors passes on a detailed analysis of the actual corona-crisis and the way that it affects the economy globally. The main goal of this...
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Knowledge Management for Managing Crisis in Tourism: Theoretical insights
PublicationCOVID-19 has caused an unprecedented crisis affecting the entire tourism industry. Accommodation, food, and travel sectors have been affected by the decreased number of visitors, which had a ripple effect on the financial situation of the whole industry. The purpose of this work is a better understanding of the role of knowledge management in terms of mitigating the crisis in the tourism sector, as well as a development of the...
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The UK's banking system as financial hub for Islamic banking
PublicationThis paper examines the phenomenon of London as "the Islamic banking hub". It contends that London has become not only an international centre for Islamic finance, but also that there is big interest and demand for Islamic banking products. The authors are also positive that Islamic banking may be a certain solution for the problems that Europe has been suffering since 2007 when the global debt crisis started. Our intention is...
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FINANCIAL COMPARISON OF WESTERN BALKAN AND BALTIC SEA STATES USING THE CAMEL APPROACH
Publication• The aim - This article aims to compare the situation in the banking sectors of two regions, which due to their political and economic history have much in common. These are the Western Balkan States of Serbia, Croatia and Macedonia, and the Baltic Sea States of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. • Methods - It presents three approaches to defining banking stability that can be found in the literature and carries out an initial...
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Annual growth of House price index in European Union in 2006-2017
Open Research DataThe financial crisis of 2008 has caused a number of changes in the investment of both companies and individuals. One of the widely invested assets became the real estate market. The decline in real estate prices was noted in 2009 and 2012-2014. The highest decrease in property prices was indicated in Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia and...
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Public Finance in Poland in a COVID Fog: A Look Through the Lens of Fiscal Transparency and Accountability
PublicationAbstract. Goal– The aim of the article is to identify dysfunctional phenomena (implementation of specific mechanisms/solutions and actions taken), generating increased opacity and limit the responsibility/accountability of public f inance in Poland, exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. Methods– descriptive analysis, comparative analysis and financial analysis methods were used. Results– fiscal transparency and accountability in...
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COMPLEXITY OF INNOVATIVE FINANCIAL PRODUCTS: THE CASE OF SYNTHETIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS IN EUROPE
PublicationThe aim of the text is the presentation of the most important categories of exchange traded funds (ETFs) – physical and synthetic ones. A theoretical part of the text includes an overview of the main features of ETFs, the presentation of differences between physical and synthetic funds and the main risks posed by both types to their users and the whole financial systems. An empirical part focuses on the European market. Time span...
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Should Polish banks be domesticated?
PublicationThe financial crisis revealed vulnerabilities in the regulation and supervision of the banking system. The overarching goal of the proposal (Bazylea III and CRD IV) is to strengthen the resilience of the EU banking sector. The effects of these regulations will be detrimental to the Polish banking system and economy. This follows from the fact that listed banks in Poland are subsidiaries of international banking groups. The article...
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Diamond investments – Is the market free from multiple price bubbles?
PublicationThe following study aims to investigate whether multiple price bubbles, in which the quoted market price of diamonds significantly deviates from their fundamental value, exist in the diamond market. It was conducted using ADF, SADF and GSADF tests, with the latter found to be an optimal form of evaluating the analysed issue. The presented results support the conclusion that the diamond market is not free from periods defined as...
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ESG investing during the Covid-19 crisis. Evidence from Central European Stock Exchanges
PublicationAs COVID-19 turned into a global pandemic, world markets gradually began to recover after initial dynamic declines. Restrictions, and their subsequent loosening, were, and are, not without significance for the financial markets. These particular circumstances provide a unique opportunity to contribute to the literature by focusing on the potential resilience of ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing in an era of crisis....
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Małgorzata Gawrycka dr hab.
PeopleMałgorzata Gawrycka, a graduate of the Faculty of Management at the University of Gdańsk, PhD in economics. From 2012-2020, deputy dean for teaching at the Faculty of Management and Economics of the Gdańsk University of Technology. Currently Dean of the Faculty. Scientific interests focus on issues related to the macroeconomic policy of the state. In particular, the problems of the situation on the labour market, demographic changes,...
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Una crisi diversa?
PublicationIl capitolo tratta della recente crisi finanziaria, analizzandone cause e conseguenze per il sistema bancario e finanziario mondiale
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L'Europa alla ricerca di una identità
PublicationIl capitolo tratta dell'economia europea dopo la riunficazione tedesca,, della nascita dell'Euro e delle cosneguenbze per il Continente della crisi economica e finanziaria
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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TOWARD A FUZZY MODEL OF POLISH INTERNET MORTGAGE MARKET
PublicationThis article presents our continuing efforts to develop a model of the Internet-based mortgage market in Poland. It sums up modeling research done over the last 4 years, also showing the stages and the process of building and verifying the proposed model consisting of three submodels. The submodels are described for three market situations; that is, a stable market, financial crisis, and economic boom. The proposed model variables...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublicationRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Price bubbles in commodity market – A single time series and panel data analysis
PublicationThis paper examines thirty-five commodities, grouped into three market sectors (energy, metals, agriculture & livestock) in terms of the occurrence of price bubbles. The study was based on monthly data for each commodity separately and, in a panel approach, for selected sectors and for all commodities combined. The GSADF test and its version for panel data – panel GSADF – were used to identify bubbles. The beginning and end of...
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THE PROBLEM OF THE BANKING SYSTEM STABILITY IN THE LITERATURE
PublicationThe article is an overview of the literature output in the field of banking sector stability. In the literature a plethora of definitions of the term may be encountered. There is no universal definition of the term. Therefore, the article proposes a unique division of the existing explanations into the following groups: stability determined by the quality of the banking sector, stability in terms of its influence on the macroeconomic...
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Share of the wage factor in national income – selected aspects
PublicationThe aim of this study is to examine changes in the share of the wage factor in national income, in selected EU countries against labour productivity and investment rates reflecting changes in capital-labour relations, indicated by researchers as determinants of change of the share of the wage factor in national income. The scope of the study includes a review of literature devoted to the issue of wage factor share in national income...
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THE ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN BANKING SECTORS IN SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
PublicationThe economic significance of the banking sector is well recognized in the theory and practice. In the literature there are discussed various topics concerning banking: banking sectors stability and its determinants, as well as influence of the banking sector on other sectors of the economy. Moreover the situation in the banking sector has been studied from different perspectives: its stability, profitability, efficiency, competition,...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Innovative activity of SMEs In Poland
PublicationInnovative activity of enterprises is determined by many factors. On one hand, these are external factors creating a sort of innovative climate in the economy, on the other hand - there are many internal factors stimulating or reducing the intensity of innovative activities. What influences the innovativeness of enterprises is the effectiveness of the system supporting innovations, which was stated by for example Pyciński and Żołnierski...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Sztuczne sieci neuronowe oraz metoda wektorów wspierających w bankowych systemach informatycznych
PublicationW artykule zaprezentowano wybrane metod sztucznej inteligencji do zwiększania efektywności bankowych systemów informatycznych. Wykorzystanie metody wektorów wspierających czy sztucznych sieci neuronowych w połączeniu z nowoczesną technologią mikroprocesorową umożliwia znaczący wzrost konkurencyjności banku poprzez dodanie nowych funkcjonalności. W rezultacie możliwe jest także złagodzenie skutków kryzysu finansowego.
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The Energy of Finance in Refining of Medical Surge Capacity
PublicationThe availability of resources and their concentration in the place of greatest need, will not allow us to successfully overcome a medical surge without the energy required to activate these resources and activities, and increase their quantities if necessary, that is why the staff and management of healthcare institutions are forced to making ethical crisis decisions about who wins and who loses. This study highlights the versatility...
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The transformation of the Chinese stock market between 1990 and 2012
PublicationThe main purpose of this paper is to examine the transformation of the stock market in the People’s Republic of China (i.e. concentrated on stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen; the stock exchange in Hong Kong was omitted) from its beginnings in the early 1990s, through rapid development over the next two decades, up to the financial crisis of 2008 (the period examined is 1990–2012). The paper presents a short history of the...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
PeopleEducation Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Degree / scientific title Habilitation – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2015) Ph.D. – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2004) Employment Gdańsk University of Technology - associate professor (since 2017); assistant professor...
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L'economia mondiale dopo la guerra fredda
PublicationChe cosa è successo negli equilibri economici mondiali a partire dal 1989 e dalla dissoluzione del vecchio ordine sovietico? Dopo aver esaminato gli Usa e i suoi competitori asiatici, Giappone e Cina, il libro si concentra sull’Europa e sulle grandi trasformazioni portate dalla riunificazione tedesca, da Maastricht e dalla nascita dell’euro. Infine analizza, nell’ambito della globalizzazione, il ruolo dei BRICS, lo sviluppo economico...
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Automated Valuation Model based on fuzzy and rough set theory for real estate market with insufficient source data
PublicationObjective monitoring of the real estate value is a requirement to maintain balance, increase security and minimize the risk of a crisis in the financial and economic sector of every country. The valuation of real estate is usually considered from two points of view, i.e. individual valuation and mass appraisal. It is commonly believed that Automated Valuation Models (AVM) should be devoted to mass appraisal, which requires a large...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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20+ years of Polish residential real estate prices – a house price index proxy
PublicationInformation on house prices is often considered crucial when assessing developments in economy. However, in Poland for the long time house prices haven’t been tracked in an organized manner. Recent developments, most notably house price indices developed by Poland’s national bank and by the statistical office do not go back more than 10 years, therefore data series are relatively short compared to those of other macroeconomic data. In...
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INWESTYCJE A ZATRUDNIENIE W POLSCE W PERSPEKTYWIE FINANSOWE 2007-2013
PublicationNakłady inwestycyjne przedsiębiorstw traktowane są jako jeden z głównych czynników wzrostu gospodarczego. Ich wielkość i dynamika mogą mieć wpływ na zmiany w poziomie zatrudnienia. Światowy kryzys finansowy przyczynił się do spowolnienia dynamiki wzrostu oraz gwałtownego spadku w 2009 roku PKB w większości gospodarek świata. We wspomnianym okresie w Polsce zaobserwowano spowolnienie gospodarcze, które miało wpływ na decyzje...
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SUICIDES FOR ECONOMIC REASONS AS A MEASURE OF THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY: THE CASE OF POLAND
PublicationSuicides are a phenomenon observed in many countries. The causes of a decision so drastic as far as consequences are concerned include i.a. economic reasons. The question arises whether the changing number of suicides reflects the state of the economy. The direct link between the state of the economy and suicides has not been sufficiently studied so far. The authors of this article attempted to identify the links between selected...
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Sopot - is it possible to retain the unique image of the city?
PublicationSopot is the best-known seaside resort in Poland. The city is unique with regard not only to its location and natural values, but also its interesting architecture, which dates back to the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century. The relic of that era is the largest in the country number of buildings characteristic for the Northern European seaside resorts. The architecture of historic Sopot is dominated by eclectic...
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Innovative investment funds and stability of financial systems: Nonparametric study of exchange-traded funds in Europe
PublicationThe main aim of the paper is investigation of the potential contribution of exchange-trade funds (ETFs) to the instability of the European financial systems. The paper begins with presentation of the key theoretical concepts with regard to ETFs and financial stability. We discuss the key attributes of ETFs as the innovative category of investment funds, their hypothesized impact on the financial stability as well as briefly describe...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublicationLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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Doskonalenie strumienia wartości
PublicationKsiążka ta ma na celu praktyczne ujęcie problemu optymalizacji przedsiębiorstwa opartej na koncepcji Lean (z ang. Lean – szczupły) i jej narzędziu Mapowania Strumienia Wartości. ---- Tu pobierzesz jej pełną treść w wersji elektronicznej: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xNrdiuOHKpyjzG5dY3ocFG8fp2hY1b9C/view?usp=sharing ---- Prezentowane...