Search results for: UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
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Global Surrogate Modeling by Neural Network-Based Model Uncertainty
PublicationThis work proposes a novel adaptive global surrogate modeling algorithm which uses two neural networks, one for prediction and the other for the model uncertainty. Specifically, the algorithm proceeds in cycles and adaptively enhances the neural network-based surrogate model by selecting the next sampling points guided by an auxiliary neural network approximation of the spatial error. The proposed algorithm is tested numerically...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Quality of Analytical Results: Classifiying Errors and Estimating Measurement Uncertainty
PublicationThe most important parameter of each analytical result is its reliability. An analytical result is not a constant value; each result has two properties, error and uncertainty. The sources of both these parameters have to be known and their values determined (estimated). All analytical results are obtained by applying an appropriate measuring procedure. The need for reliable results requires application of reliable analytical procedures,...
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Methodology of estimating temperature measurement uncertainty in a system for endurance tests.
PublicationThe team consisting of the article authors developed a non-invasive method and a system for measuring temperature during an endurance test. A thermocouple which provided the required accuracy of changes in temperature dynamics measurements was used for the purpose of the required research. The paper presents the methodology for estimating uncertainty of temperature measurement done with the presented system, using a method based...
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Cryptocurrencies as a speculative asset. How much uncertainty is included in cryptocurrency price?
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. In order to conduct research, the authors collected the data on the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Dogecoin and USD coin) which account for 78% of the total market cap. Using panel OLS regression, this study finds that Bitcoin...
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Mispronunciation Detection in Non-Native (L2) English with Uncertainty Modeling
PublicationA common approach to the automatic detection of mispronunciation in language learning is to recognize the phonemes produced by a student and compare it to the expected pronunciation of a native speaker. This approach makes two simplifying assumptions: a) phonemes can be recognized from speech with high accuracy, b) there is a single correct way for a sentence to be pronounced. These assumptions do not always hold, which can result...
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Estimating uncertainty in analytical procedures based on chromatographic techniques
PublicationTechniki chromatograficzne są bardzo często wykorzystywane w procedurach analitycznych na etapie rozdzielania i oznaczania oraz identyfikacji szerokiego spektrum analitów występujących w próbkach charakteryzujących się złożonym a niekiedy także zmiennym matryce. Bardzo często są jednak sytuacje, że przy oszacowywaniu niepewności wyników oznaczeń końcowych pomija się niepewności związane z procesem chromatograficznym. W efekcie...
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Uncertainty assessment in the safety and security oriented risk analyses
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono uwzględnienie oceny niepewności w procesie związanym z analizą ryzyka i analizą bezpieczeństwa oraz ochroną informacji. Przedstawiona została koncepcja oceny bezpieczeństwa i zarządzania ryzykiem z uwzględnieniem analizy warstw zabezpieczeń LOPA. W artykule nakreślono wyzwania związane z integracją podejścia oceny bezpieczeństwa (safety) i ochrony informacji (security) w projektowaniu systemów zabezpieczeń...
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Uncertainty in measuring the power spectrum density of a random signal
PublicationPrzedstawiono sposób oszacowania niepewności wyznaczania gęstości widmowej mocy przebiegu losowego. Przeprowadzono ocenę niepewności estymacji gęstości widmowej mocy biorąc pod uwagę propagację niepewności związanej z rejestracją pojedynczej próbki sygnału w algorytmie cyfrowego przetwarzania sygnału oraz błąd obciążenia estymatora wynikający z zastosowanego modelu matematycznego wielkości wyznaczanej. Wyprowadzono zależności na...
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Observing uncertainty in music tagging by automatic gaze tracking
PublicationIn this paper, a new approach to observe music file tagging process by employing a gaze tracking system is proposed. The study was conducted with the participation of twenty subjects having different musical experience. For the purpose of the experiments a website survey based on a musical database was prepared. It allowed to gather information about music experience of subjects along with music characteristics such as genre, tempo,...
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Trust-Based Model for the Assessment of the Uncertainty of Measurements in Hybrid IoT Networks
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to introduce a NUT model (NUT: network-uncertainty-trust) that aids the decrease of the uncertainty of measurements in autonomous hybrid Internet of Things sensor networks. The problem of uncertainty in such networks is a consequence of various operating conditions and varied quality of measurement nodes, making statistical approach less successful. This paper presents a model for decreasing the uncertainty...
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Validation of a sampling procedure
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure influences the final results in a significant way. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. This paper describes two basic ways of estimating the sampling uncertainty,...
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Advanced sensitivity analysis of the impact of the temporal distribution and intensity of rainfall on hydrograph parameters in urban catchments
PublicationKnowledge of the variability of the hydrograph of outflow from urban catchments is highly important for measurements and evaluation of the operation of sewer networks. Currently, hydrodynamic models are most frequently used for hydrograph modeling. Since a large number of their parameters have to be identified, there may be problems at the calibration stage. Hence, sensitivity analysis is used to limit the number of parameters....
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublicationWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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Assessment of sources of uncertainty in macrophyte surveys and the consequences for river classification
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Quality of Analytical Results: Classifiying Errors and Estimating Measurement Uncertainty
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublicationThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
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Multi-fidelity robust aerodynamic design optimization under mixed uncertainty
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present a robust optimization algorithm for computationally efficient airfoil design under mixed (inherent and epistemic) uncertainty using a multi-fidelity approach. This algorithm exploits stochastic expansions derived from the Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC) technique to create surrogate models utilized in the optimization process. A combined NIPC expansion approach is used, where both...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublicationThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Sampling Strategies: Statistics of Sampling
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure has a significant influence on the final result of the analysis. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. In the paper: the most important properties of the analysed...