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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: RISK CLASSES, FORECASTING
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublikacjaThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublikacjaThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Anna Rzeczycka dr hab.
OsobyAnna Rzeczycka jest zastępcą kierownika Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej. Publikacje sytuują się w dziedzinie nauk społecznych w zakresie dyscypliny ekonomia i finanse. Obejmują one książki, monografie, artykuły, publikacje i redakcje naukowe monografii i zeszytów naukowych. Liczbowo obejmuje on następujące pozycje: 12 monografii i podręczników, 115 publikacji w czasopismach naukowych,...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
OsobyMichał Bernard Pietrzak jest kierownikiem Katedry Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz zastępcą redaktora naczelnego ds. oceny pod względem poprawności statystycznej czasopism: Oeconomia Copernicana i Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Do października 2021 pracował na stanowisku profesora nadzwyczajnego na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania,...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublikacjaDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Pedestrian accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Pedestrians. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):