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wyświetlamy 1000 najlepszych wyników Pomoc
Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: RISK CLASSES, FORECASTING
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublikacjaThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublikacjaThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Anna Rzeczycka dr hab.
OsobyAnna Rzeczycka jest zastępcą kierownika Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej. Publikacje sytuują się w dziedzinie nauk społecznych w zakresie dyscypliny ekonomia i finanse. Obejmują one książki, monografie, artykuły, publikacje i redakcje naukowe monografii i zeszytów naukowych. Liczbowo obejmuje on następujące pozycje: 12 monografii i podręczników, 115 publikacji w czasopismach naukowych,...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
OsobyMichał Bernard Pietrzak jest kierownikiem Katedry Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz zastępcą redaktora naczelnego ds. oceny pod względem poprawności statystycznej czasopism: Oeconomia Copernicana i Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Do października 2021 pracował na stanowisku profesora nadzwyczajnego na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania,...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublikacjaDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Pedestrian accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Pedestrians. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Cyclist accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Cyclists. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Child accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: children - drivers, passengers and . vulnerable road user.. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - All accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Young drivers accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: young driver offender. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Motorcycle and moped accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: motorcyclists and mopeds. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Elderly people accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: elderly people (65+) - drivers, passengers and . vulnerable road user. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Alcohol and drug accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Offenders under influence of alcohol or drug - driver or pedestrian. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Head-on accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: head-on. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Night accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, time of accidents: Night. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Side-impact accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: Side-impact. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Excessive speed accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, cause of accidents: Excessive speed accidents. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Run off road accidents
Dane BadawczeData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: Run off road. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Medium to High and high road sections
Dane BadawczeData contain road sections with the highest number of accidents and victims on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019. Measures used to assess the level of risk is: minimum 4 accidents or 4 seriously injured or fatalities per one kilometer (5 classes: low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
OsobyBłażej Prusak jest kierownikiem Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz redaktorem naczelnym czasopisma Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME)/Przedsiębiorstwo we współczesnej gospodarce - teoria i praktyka, a także członkiem komitetów redakcyjnych takich czasopism jak: Intellectual Economics; Przestrzeń. Ekonomia. Społeczeństwo; Akademia Zarządzania. Jest autorem...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2019 - Municipality areas
Dane BadawczeData contain the number of accidents, victims, accident costs divided on municipality areas (119 areas) on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2019. Measures used to assess the level of social risk are (5 classes: low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2019 - Poviat areas
Dane BadawczeData contain the number of accidents, victims, accident costs divided on poviat areas (16 areas) on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2019. Measures used to assess the level of social risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
OsobyWykształcenie Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Stopień naukowy Doktor habilitowany – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2015) Doktor – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2004) Zatrudnienie Politechnika Gdańska: profesor uczelni (od 2019); profesor nadzwyczajny (2017-2019); adiunkt (2004-2016); asystent (2001-2004) I-Shou...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Mateusz Muchlado dr
OsobyMateusz Muchlado - adiunkt w Katedrze Inżynierii Zarządzania i Jakości. Stopień doktora nauk o zarządzaniu i jakości uzyskał w roku 2020 na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej broniąc pracę pt. "Outsourcing w wybranych podmiotach leczniczych województwa pomorskiego". Związany z Politechniką Gdańską od 2010 roku, absolwent kierunku "International Management", studiował w latach 2011-2012 na Otto-Friedrich-Universität...
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publikacjamodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Andrzej Chybicki dr inż.
OsobyZ wykształcenia informatyk, absolwent Wydziału Elektroniki, Telekomunikacji i Informatyki Politechniki Gdańskiej, doktor nauk technicznych w dziedzinie informatyka specjalizujący się w przetwarzaniau danych przestrzennych w rozproszonych systemach informatycznych. Ukierunkowany na wykorzystywanie osiągnięć i wiedzy zakresu prowadzonych badań w przemyśle. Współpracował z szeregiem podmiotów przemysłu informatycznego, geodezyjnego...
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Defence in depth conception in nuclear power plants and requirements for instrumentation and control systems
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some issues of the safety systems’ design for nuclear power plants equipped with the light water reactors using a defence in depth (D-in-D) conception. Because the functional safety solutions play nowadays an important role for the risk control, the basic requirements for the instrumentation and control systems are specified with regard to relevant international standards. For...
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Quantitative Risk Assessment in Construction Disputes Based on Machine Learning Tools
PublikacjaA high monetary value of the construction projects is one of the reasons of frequent disputes between a general contractor (GC) and a client. A construction site is a unique, one-time, and single-product factory with many parties involved and dependent on each other. The organizational dependencies and their complexity make any fault or mistake propagate and influence the final result (delays, cost overruns). The constant will...
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Is Artificial Intelligence Ready to Assess an Enterprise’s Financial Security?
PublikacjaThis study contributes to the literature on financial security by highlighting the relevance of the perceptions and resulting professional judgment of stakeholders. Assessing a company’s financial security using only economic indicators—as suggested in the existing literature—would be inaccurate when undertaking a comprehensive study of financial security. Specifically, indices and indicators based on financial or managerial reporting...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Assessing groundwater vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastline of the inner Puck Bay using GALDIT method
PublikacjaIn this research, GALDIT method was used to assess seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the inner Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea). The impact of potential sea-level rise on groundwater vulnerability for years 2081-2100 was also considered. The study area was categorized into three classes of vulnerability: low, moderate and high. The most vulnerable area is the Hel Peninsula with northern part of the Kashubian Coastland....
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Assessing groundwater vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastline of the inner Puck Bay using GALDIT method
PublikacjaIn this research, GALDIT method was used to assess seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the inner Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea). The impact of potential sea-level rise on groundwater vulnerability for years 2081-2100 was also considered. The study area was categorized into three classes of vulnerability: low, moderate and high. The most vulnerable area is the Hel Peninsula with northern part of the Kashubian Coastland....
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Assessing and Mitigating Ice-Jam Flood Hazards and Risks: A European Perspective
PublikacjaThe assessment and mapping of riverine flood hazards and risks is recognized by many countries as an important tool for characterizing floods and developing flood management plans. Often, however, these management plans give attention primarily to open-water floods, with ice-jam floods being mostly an afterthought once these plans have been drafted. In some Nordic regions, ice-jam floods can be more severe than open-water floods,...
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The Many Faces of Enterococcus spp.—Commensal, Probiotic and Opportunistic Pathogen
PublikacjaEnterococcus spp. are Gram-positive, facultative, anaerobic cocci, which are found in the intestinal flora and, less frequently, in the vagina or mouth. Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium are the most common species found in humans. As commensals, enterococci colonize the digestive system and participate in the modulation of the immune system in humans and animals. For many years reference enterococcal strains have...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublikacjaIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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Forecasting
Czasopisma -
A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublikacjaForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublikacjaDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Smart metering - social risk perception and risk governance (10h, 2 ECTS credits)
Kursy OnlineThe goal of the course is to broaden the understanding of technology-related risks and to present the concepts of social risk perception and risk governance in the context of smart metering technology. In current phase of technological development – known as the fourth industrial revolution – rapid and profound changes are setting up new and particularly destabilizing risks. In more and more complex technological systems that constitute...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublikacjaThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...