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Search results for: PROBABILISTIC METHOD
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Probabilistic Sequence Mining – Evaluation and Extension of ProMFS Algorithm for Real-Time Problems
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Risk characterisation of the required index R in the new probabilistic rules for damage stability
PublicationWymagany wskaźnik podziału grodziowego R jest miarą bezpieczeństwa statku w wypadku kolizji. Zwykle wyznacza się go w oparciu o wskaźniki dla wybranych, istniejących statków. W pracy podano jak ustalić ten wskaźnik w oparciu o dane dotyczące kolizji (wypadkowości) statków.
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Probabilistic concept of defining the situations possible to occur during operation of floating docks
PublicationW artykule zasygnalizowana została możliwość oszacowania bezpieczeństwa doków pływajacych, w wyniku zastosowania teorii procesów semimarkowskich, zarówno w fazie projektowania jak też eksploatacji. Przedstawiono opis formalny sytuacji, jakie mogą zaistnieć podczas funkcjonowania (działania) doków pływających, zarówno budowlanych jak również remontowych. Wyróżniono takie sytuacje jak: normalna, skomplikowana, niebezpieczna, awaryjna...
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Statistic and probabilistic measures of diagnosis likelohood on the state of self-ignition combustion engines
PublicationW artykule zaproponowano, aby wiarygodność diagnozy o stanie technicznym silników o zapłonie samoczynnym była rozpatrywana jako losowa cecha tej diagnozy. Wykazano możliwość oceny wiarygodności diagnozy za pomocą liczb rzeczywistych z przedziału [0, 1]. Uzasadniono potrzebę rozróżniania wiarygodności diagnozy i trafności diagnozy. Wyprowadzono wzór na prawdopodobieństwo sformułowania prawidłowej diagnozy jako miary wiarygodności...
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Concept for interpretation and assessment of slide bearings operation in Diesel enfines in probabilistic approach
PublicationW artykule zaproponowano interpretację wartościującą działania, które (podobnie jak przedstawione w mechanice klasycznej działania Hamiltona i Maupertiusa oraz działanie wynikające ze zmiany pędu ciała) jest rozpatrywane jako wielkość fizyczna o jednostce miary zwanej''dżulosekundą''. Przedstawiono propozycję ilościowej interpretacji działania dowolnego poprzecznego łożyska ślizgowego, w którym zachodzą oddziaływania energetyczne...
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The Algorithm of Modelling and Analysis of Latent Semantic Relations: Linear Algebra vs. Probabilistic Topic Models
PublicationThis paper presents the algorithm of modelling and analysis of Latent Semantic Relations inside the argumentative type of documents collection. The novelty of the algorithm consists in using a systematic approach: in the combination of the probabilistic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Linear Algebra based Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) methods; in considering each document as a complex of topics, defined on the basis of separate...
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A methodology for incorporating human factors in fuzzy-probabilistic modelling and risk analysis of industrial systems
PublicationPraca dotyczy wybranych zagadnień rozmyto-probabilistycznych modelowania złożonych systemów przemysłowych. Do obliczeń związanych z analizą ryzyka stosuje się diagramy wpływu i hierarchiczny proces decyzyjny.
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Seismic probabilistic assessment of steel and reinforced concrete structures including earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationRecent earthquakes demonstrate that prioritizing the retrofitting of buildings should be of the utmost importance for enhancing the seismic resilience and structural integrity of urban structures. To have a realistic results of the pounding effects in modeling process of retrofitting buildings, the present research provides seismic Probability Factors (PFs), which can be used for estimating collision effects without engaging in...
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Probabilistic assessment of SMRFs with infill masonry walls incorporating nonlinear soil-structure interaction
PublicationInfill Masonry Walls (IMWs) are used in the perimeter of a building to separate the inner and outer space. IMWs may affect the lateral behavior of buildings, while they are different from those partition walls that separate two inner spaces. This study focused on the seismic vulnerability assessment of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames (SMRFs) assuming different placement of IMWs incorporating nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI)....
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublicationThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Adaptive Method for Modeling of Temporal Dependencies between Fields of Vision in Multi-Camera Surveillance Systems
PublicationA method of modeling the time of object transition between given pairs of cameras based on the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is proposed in this article. Temporal dependencies modeling is a part of object re-identification based on the multi-camera experimental framework. The previously utilized Expectation-Maximization (EM) approach, requiring setting the number of mixtures arbitrarily as an input parameter, was extended with the...
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A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland
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A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship–ship collision
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Development of Local IDF-formula Using Controlled Random Search Method for Global Optimization
PublicationThe aim of the study is to present the effective and relatively simple empirical approach to rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency-formulas development, based on Controlled Random Search (CRS) for global optimization. The approach is mainly dedicated to the cases in which the commonly used IDF-relationships do not provide satisfactory fit between simulations and observations, and more complex formulas with higher number of parameters...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the safety instrumented systems with the uncertainty and security aspects
PublicationSafety and security aspects consist of two different group of functional requirements for the control and protection systems. In the paper it is proposed that the security analysis results can be used as a factor increasing or decreasing the risk level. It concerns a process of determining required safety integrity level of given safety functions. The authors propose a new approach for functional safety risk analysis. In this case...
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Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder highway bridges with unequal-height piers subjected to earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationThis paper uses the probabilistic seismic assessment to study the effects of pounding and irregularity on the seismic behavior of typical concrete box-girder bridges with four levels of altitudinal irregularity. To extend the results for all bridges in the same class, uncertainty related to the earthquake, structural geometries, and materials are considered. Pounding is likely to take place in two cases: the first one concerns...
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Selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with the use oobability models
PublicationThis paper presents a new original method of selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with regard to probabilistic models. It was proposed to use the normal distribution to describe the operational loads of the main receivers. The principles for determination of parameters of load distribution and design power of the main engines were formulated. Lastly, the principles of selection of the size and number of main engines...
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Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas
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A probabilistic concept of assessment of amount of noxious substances contained in exhaust gas emitted from self-ignition engines
PublicationPrzedstawiono probabilistyczną koncepcję oceny toksyczności spalin silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Ocena taka jest istotna, ponieważ bez niej nie jest możliwe określenie walorów proekologicznych różnych środków transportowych z napędem spalinowym, w tym śródlądowych statków pasażerskich. W koncepcji tej uwzględniony został model procesu rozruchu silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Model ten przedstawiono w formie procesu semimarkowskiego,...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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Sensitivity analysis of simple random beam models by means of Monte Carlo Methods using Variance Reductions Techniques
PublicationA probabilistic sensitivity analysis of two nonlinear bar structures is presented. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the Monte Carlo method. The imperfections of the structures and the applied loads are adapted as random variables. Based on all of the generated input variables, an output response of the system is sought. Afterwards, a coefficient responsible for the structure failure is calculated and the limit state...
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Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from colission of ships
PublicationIn this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to...
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Spatial distribution and correlations among elements in smaller than 75 μm street dust: ecological and probabilistic health risk assessment
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Semantic Analysis and Text Summarization in Socio-Technical Systems
PublicationIn this chapter the authors present the results of the development the methodology for increasing the reliability of the functioning of the Socio-Technical System. The existed methods and algorithms for processing unstructured (textual) information were studied. Taking into account noted above strengths and weaknesses of Discriminant and Probabilistic approaches of Latent Semantic Relations analysis in of the summarization projection...
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Wrażliwość probabilistyczna stanów granicznych konstrukcji - metoda Monte Carlo
PublicationPraca ukazuje zastosowanie metody symulacyjnej Monte Carlo w analizie losowej konstrukcji inżynierskich. Systematyka metod losowych obejmuje ich trzy poziomy, z zaznaczeniem poziomu trzeciego, o dowolnych typach zmiennych losowych – zmiennych podstawowych problemu. Ukazano przykład modelowana losowego obciążenia wiatrem na podstawie 10-letnich pomiarów prędkości wiatru, wykazując zgodność zbioru danych z rozkładem ekstremów Gumbela....
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Safety integrity level verification for safety-related functions with security aspects
PublicationThe article is devoted some important issues of the functional safety analysis, in particular the safetyintegrity level (SIL) verification of safety functions to be implemented within the distributed controland protection systems with regard to cyber security aspects. The procedure for functional safety man-agement includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safetyrequirements and definition...
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Sensitivity analysis based on non-intrusive regression-based polynomial chaos expansion for surgical mesh modelling
PublicationThe modelling of a system containing implants used in ventral hernia repair and human tissue suffers from many uncertainties. Thus, a probabilistic approach is needed. The goal of this study is to define an efficient numerical method to solve non-linear biomechanical models supporting the surgeon in decisions about ventral hernia repair. The model parameters are subject to substantial variability owing to, e.g., abdominal wall...
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE REHABILITATION OF HISTORIC TIMBER STRUCTURES ON THE EXAMPLES OF GREEK CATHOLIC CHURCHES IN POLISH SUBCARPATHIA
PublicationThis work concerns structural and sensitivity analysis of carpentry joints used in historic wooden buildings in south-eastern Poland and western Ukraine. These are primarily sacred buildings and the types of joints characteristic for this region are saddle notch and dovetail joints. Thus, in the study the authors focus on these types of corner log joints. Numerical models of the joints are defined and finite element simulations...
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Optimizing Construction Engineering Management Using Metaheuristic Methods and Bayesian Networks
PublicationThe construction of buildings invariably involves time and costs, and disruptions impact ongoing construction projects. Crisis situations in management strategies, structural confusion, and finan-cial miscalculations often arise due to misguided decision-making. This article proposes a method that combines the learning of Bayesian Networks and heuristic techniques to optimize deci-sion-making processes in construction scheduling....
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Current issues of functional safety and cybersecurity analysis of the industrial and critical infrastructures
PublicationThis article addresses some functional safety assessment procedures with cybersecurity aspects in critical industrial installations with regard to the functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The functional safety management includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on the risk assessment...
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Application of a stochastic compartmental model to approach the spread of environmental events with climatic bias
PublicationWildfires have significant impacts on both environment and economy, so understanding their behaviour is crucial for the planning and allocation of firefighting resources. Since forest fire management is of great concern, there has been an increasing demand for computationally efficient and accurate prediction models. In order to address this challenge, this work proposes applying a parameterised stochastic model to study the propagation...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublicationThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublicationThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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IDENTIFICATION OF DAMAGES OF TRIBOLOGICAL ASSOCIATIONS IN CRANKSHAFT AND PISTON SYSTEMS OF TWO-STROKE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES USED AS MAIN PROPULSION IN SEA-GOING VESSELS AND PROPOSAL OF PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTION OF LOADS AS CAUSES OF THESE DAMAGES
PublicationThe article discusses damages of essential tribological associations in crankshaft and piston systems of large power two-stroke engines used as main engines, which take place during transport tasks performed by those ships. Difficulties are named which make preventing those damages impossible, despite the fact that the technical state of engines of this type is identified with the aid of complex diagnostic systems making use of...
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Demonstrator testera wbudowanego BIST dla układów w pełni różnicowych
PublicationPrzedstawiono demonstrator testera wbudowanego, przeznaczony do pracy na stanowisku dydaktycznym w laboratorium z przedmiotu Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne. Na stanowisku studenci zapoznają się z technologią BIST (ang. Built-In Self-Test), która jest przykładem wdrożenia strategii projektowania dla testowania.
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublicationThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Analysis and Management in Smart Manufacturing Systems
PublicationThis chapter addresses some of the issues of the integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management with regard to selected references and the functional safety standards: IEC 61508, IEC 61511, ISO 13849-1 and IEC 62061, and a cybersecurity standard IEC 62443 that concerns the industrial automation and control systems. The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial systems that include the information...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Designing Control and Protection Systems with Regard to Integrated Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Aspects
PublicationThis article addresses current problems of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling for functional safety management in the life cycle of safety-related systems. Two main stages in the lifecycle of these systems are distinguished, namely the design and operation. The risk analysis and probabilistic modelling differ in these stages in view of available knowledge and data. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved, both qualitative...
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Integrity level verification for safety-related functions
PublicationThis article describes methods for safety integrity level (SIL) verification of safety-related functions with regard to probabilistic criteria given international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. These functions are to be realized using the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE) systems or safety instrumented systems (SIS). Some methods are proposed for quantitative probabilistic modelling taking into account...
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Reliability of production machines in the bakery industry – theoretical and practical issues
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present probabilistic models, which were then used to analyze the reliability of production machines in the baking industry. The author conducted research in the period from January 2, 2016 to December 31, 2018 regarding the measurement of reliability of a traditional production system based on a probabilistic concept. Due to the limited scope of the article, reliability calculations for a set of thermo-oil...
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Graph security testing
PublicationSet S ⊂ V is called secure set iff ∀ X ⊂ S | N [ X ] ∩ S | ≥ | N ( X ) \ S | [3]. That means that every subset of a secure set has at least as many friends (neighbour vertices in S) as enemies (neighbour vertices outside S) and will be defended in case of attack. Problem of determining if given set is secure is co −NP -complete, there is no efficient algorithm solving it [3]. Property testers are algorithms that distinguish inputs...
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Improving the Accuracy in Sentiment Classification in the Light of Modelling the Latent Semantic Relations
PublicationThe research presents the methodology of improving the accuracy in sentiment classification in the light of modelling the latent semantic relations (LSR). The objective of this methodology is to find ways of eliminating the limitations of the discriminant and probabilistic methods for LSR revealing and customizing the sentiment classification process (SCP) to the more accurate recognition of text tonality. This objective was achieved...
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Effectiveness of Random Field Approach in Serviceability Limit State Analysis of Strip Foundation
PublicationThis work conducts a probabilistic inquiry on how the variability of the parameter defining soil deformability affects the settlement of the foundation located on the soil. The analysis addresses the random foundation model to relevantly estimate the probability of allowable deflection exceedance. The constitutive model parameter is based either on a single random variable or a random field. The computations incorporate direct...
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Reliability estimation of underground horizontal fuel tank limit states
PublicationFuel tanks are designed with regard to standard loads and operating conditions. The investigations of the paper show the impact of such factors as tank corrosion and other means on the variation of stress fields and deformation of the underground horizontal tank shell. The introduction of probabilistic methods allows for structural reliability assessment. While the computational time of the entire tank FEM model is high, the preliminary...
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Average Size of a Suffix Tree for Markov Sources
PublicationWe study a suffix tree built from a sequence generated by a Markovian source. Such sources are more realistic probabilistic models for text generation, data compression, molecular applications, and so forth. We prove that the average size of such a suffix tree is asymptotically equivalent to the average size of a trie built over n independentsequences from the same Markovian source. This equivalenceis only known for memoryless...
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Application of Pierson-Moskowitz wave spectrum to solution differential equations of multihull vessel
PublicationMotion of a dynamic system can be generated by different external or internal factors. At mathematical modelling external excitation factors of the most significant effect on the system, are selected. Such external factors are usually called excitations. Response of the system to given excitations is mathematically characterized by a definite transformation called operator of a system. For a broad class of dynamic systems the...