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Search results for: energy forecast
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Comparison of Traffic Flow Models with Real Traffic Data Based on a Quantitative Assessment
PublicationThe fundamental relationship of traffic flow and bivariate relations between speed and flow, speed and density, and flow and density are of great importance in transportation engineering. Fundamental relationship models may be applied to assess and forecast traffic conditions at uninterrupted traffic flow facilities. The objective of the article was to analyze and compare existing models of the fundamental relationship. To that...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Machine-Learning Methods for Estimating Performance of Structural Concrete Members Reinforced with Fiber-Reinforced Polymers
PublicationIn recent years, fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) in reinforced concrete (RC) members have gained significant attention due to their exceptional properties, including lightweight construction, high specific strength, and stiffness. These attributes have found application in structures, infrastructures, wind power equipment, and various advanced civil products. However, the production process and the extensive testing required for...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Optimization issues in distributed computing systems design
PublicationIn recent years, we observe a growing interest focused on distributed computing systems. Both industry and academia require increasing computational power to process and analyze large amount of data, including significant areas like analysis of medical data, earthquake, or weather forecast. Since distributed computing systems – similar to computer networks – are vulnerable to failures, survivability mechanisms are indispensable...
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Novel Complementary Multiple Concentric Split Ring Resonator for Reliable Characterization of Dielectric Substrates with High Sensitivity
PublicationAccurate characterization of dielectric substrates with high sensitivity remains an important challenge in a variety of industrial applications. This paper proposes an innovative strategy to address this challenge by developing and optimizing a unique Complementary Multiple Concentric Split Ring Resonator (CMC-SRR). The major goal is to propose a sensor design with increased sensitivity and reliability for dielectric characterization....
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Insulation Properties of Lightweight Concrete
PublicationPredicting the properties of concrete before its design and application process allows for refining and optimizing its composition. However, the properties of lightweight concrete are much harder to predict than those of normal weight concrete, especially if the forecast concerns the insulating properties of concrete with artificial lightweight aggregate (LWA). It is possible to use porous aggregates and precisely modify the composition...
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Rural Building in Opole Silesia During the Period of the Frederician Colonization
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present the rural construction in the Opole countryside (Poland) during the “Frederician colonization”. Showing socio-economic areas of Opole villages, differing from each other, the differences of which resulted from the environmental conditions influencing the processes of enfranchisement and industrialization. These processes at the turn of the 17th and 19th centuries influenced the image of the...
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Relationship between GIX, SIDX, and ROTI ionospheric indices and GNSS precise positioning results under geomagnetic storms
PublicationIonospheric indices give information about ionospheric perturbations, which may cause absorption, diffraction, refraction, and scattering of radio signals, including those from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Therefore, there may be a relationship between index values and GNSS positioning results. A thorough understanding of ionospheric indices and their relationship to positioning results can help monitor and forecast...
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A Proposed Soft Computing Model for Ultimate Strength Estimation of FRP-Confined Concrete Cylinders
PublicationIn this paper, the feed-forward backpropagation neural network (FFBPNN) is used to propose a new formulation for predicting the compressive strength of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-confined concrete cylinders. A set of experimental data has been considered in the analysis. The data include information about the dimensions of the concrete cylinders (diameter, length) and the total thickness of FRP layers, unconfined ultimate concrete...
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EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVENESS OF WATERJET PROPULSOR FOR A SMALL UNDERWATER VEHICLE
PublicationT he goal of the project described is to replace the existing propulsion system of a small underwater vehicle with a solution less prone to mechanical damage and ensuring a lower risk of the entanglement of fibrous objects suspended in the body of water. Four typical marine screws are utilised in the current design of the vehicle. One possible solution of the problem is the application of waterjet propulsors located...
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Fatigue of titanium alloy Ti6Al4V with diamond structure obtained by Laser Power Bed Fusion method
PublicationThis paper presents the results of fatigue tests conducted on Ti6Al4V titanium alloy with diamond structure obtained by the Laser Power Bed Fusion method. Samples used in tests were printed with porosities: 81%, 73%, 50%, 34% and near-zero porosity. Samples were subjected to cyclic tests with a constant stress amplitude. The number of cycles until sample failure was registered. Obtained fatigue test results made it possible to...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Spatiotemporal Assessment of Satellite Image Time Series for Land Cover Classification Using Deep Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Reunion Island, France
PublicationCurrent Earth observation systems generate massive amounts of satellite image time series to keep track of geographical areas over time to monitor and identify environmental and climate change. Efficiently analyzing such data remains an unresolved issue in remote sensing. In classifying land cover, utilizing SITS rather than one image might benefit differentiating across classes because of their varied temporal patterns. The aim...
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On Memory-Based Precise Calibration of Cost-Efficient NO2 Sensor Using Artificial Intelligence and Global Response Correction
PublicationNitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a prevalent air pollutant, particularly abundant in densely populated urban regions. Given its harmful impact on health and the environment, precise real-time monitoring of NO2 concentration is crucial, particularly for devising and executing risk mitigation strategies. However, achieving precise measurements of NO2 is challenging due to the need for expensive and cumbersome equipment. This has spurred...
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Displacement piles - classification and methods for the calculation of bearing capacity.
PublicationDisplacement piles belong to a group of technologies whose main idea is to install or make a pile without extracting ground material. According to definition, contained in PN-EN:1997-1:2008, displacement piles should be considered as driven, pressed in using vibrators and made with the use of spread augers. The classification of piles used so far with regard to the technology of execution is modified. An additional element is the...
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A Novel Method for the Deblurring of Photogrammetric Images Using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks
PublicationThe visual data acquisition from small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) may encounter a situation in which blur appears on the images. Image blurring caused by camera motion during exposure significantly impacts the images interpretation quality and consequently the quality of photogrammetric products. On blurred images, it is difficult to visually locate ground control points, and the number of identified feature points decreases...
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Trzej prorocy: Sołżenicyn, Friedman, Dugin. Część pierwsza: Sołżenicyn
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia na tle biograficznym dzieło i myśl profetyczną Aleksandra Sołżenicyna. Podstawą jej analizy jest mowa z okazji przyznania autorowi Oddziału chorych na raka literackiej Nagrody Nobla oraz jego wykład na temat stanu cywilizacji Zachodu wygłoszony na Uniwersytecie Harvarda – zatytułowany Zmierzch odwagi. Proroctwa Sołżenicyna dotyczące Zachodu pokazane są w kontekście jego pracy Jak odbudować Rosję? W artykule...
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Polish Polar Research: Green-and-White Paper under the aegis of the Polish Polar Consortium (PPC)
PublicationPolar research is a colloquial term for cross-area, cross-domain and interdisciplinary research in the Arctic and Antarctic. Polar research is mainly the domain of natural sciences, but technical sciences and humanities also grow in importance. Being vulnerable to climate change, polar regions are commonly considered as a kind of litmus paper of changes in geosystems, hence the importance of research done there. It aims at a better...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Safety PL - a support tool for Road Safety Impact Assessment
PublicationPublished on 19 November 2008, the European Union's Directive 2008/96/EC is one of the most important EU documents setting out a road safety orientation, in particular, road infrastructure safety management. It identifies four main areas of activity: road safety impact assessment, road safety audit, ranking of high accident concentration sections and network safety ranking and road infrastructure safety inspection. The Directive...
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Agent-based social network as a simulation of a market behaviour
PublicationRecent years and the outbreak of world's economic crisis in 2008 proved the crucial importance of reliable analysis of market dynamics. However, werarely apply models of proper detail level (the global prosperity forecast of 2007 can be seen as a grim proof). The behaviour of individuals and companies is far from being ideal and rational. Many claims that the economic paradigm of rational expectations (coming from J. Muth and R....