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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 92-98, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 162-168, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 169-175, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 120-126, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 148-154, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 155-161, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 127-133, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 106-112, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 197-203, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 190-196, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 183-189, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 176-182, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 99-105, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 113-119, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 141-147, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
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Forecasting and optimalization in logistics
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Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter23/24)
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Forecasting
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Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter 22/23)
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Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter 24/25)
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Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis
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WEATHER AND FORECASTING
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JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN POLAND
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FORECASTING BIOGAS FORMATION IN LANDFILLS
Publication: The aim of the present research was to develop a mathematical model for estimating the amount of viscous gas generated as a function of weather conditions. Due to the lack of models for predicting gas formation caused by sudden changes in weather conditions in the literature, such a model was developed in this study using the parameters of landfills recorded for over a year. The effect of temperature on landfill gas production...
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THE EFFECT OF LOG SORTING STRATEGY ON THE FORECASTED LUMBER VALUE AFTER SAWING PINE WOOD
PublicationThe optimal transformation path for the resource is determined by the quality of a log combined with its dimension. The commercial value of derived products is also closely connected with the size and extent of containing wood deficiencies. The results of studies with three diverse strategies for log sorting are presented in the paper. Resource assessment by a worker without extensive experience in sorting logs, the certified grading...
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Impact of forecasted changes in Polish economy (2015 and 2020) on nutrient emission into the river basins
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Forecasted climate changes and their influence on cities and regions in 2050 in terms of extreme hydrological events
PublicationGlobal climate change is a problem which arises numerous theories and uncertainties, especially in terms of speculated human impact. Independent from the fact, what is the main driver for the changes, some of the climate shifts are visible already nowadays. Both contemporary and future cities will have to face such problems. Although climate change may cause numerous effects on different fields, a special stress in this article...
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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Forecasting of retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland
PublicationMotivation: In recent years, the prices of liquid fuels in Poland have been rising , negatively affecting the country’s economy and the daily life of its inhabitants. Consequently, there is a need for effective forecasting of prices in fuel markets, as this could enable entrepreneurs and consumers to make more informed decisions. Aim: The objective of the article was to forecast the retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel fuel...
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublicationForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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Forecasting of the Employment Rate in the EU ICT Field
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Forecasting of fatigue life of laser welded joints
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono podstawowe dane na temat stalowych paneli typu sandwich. Zaprezentowano wyniki testów zmęczeniowych elementarnych połączeń teowych spawanych laserowo. Omówiono szczegółowo te cechy, które mają istotny wpływ na statyczne i zmęczeniowe własności złącza. Na podstawie przedstawionych wyników badań zmęczeniowych elementarnych połączeń spawanych laserowo uzyskano krzywą projektową S-N dla jednego z pokazanych modeli...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublicationThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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Increasing rail life by forecasting fatigue failure.
PublicationReferat poświęcony jest przedłużaniu żywotności szyn i obejmuje zagadnienia prognozowania liczby pęknięć a także planowania szlifowań szyn. Dane pomiarowe pochodzą z wieloletnich badań przeprowadzonych w Katedrze Inżynierii Kolejowej Politechniki Gdańskiej na liniach magistralnych PKP.
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublicationThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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A MODEL FOR FORECASTING PM10 LEVELS WITH THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PublicationThis work presents a method of forecasting the level of PM10 with the use of artificial neural networks. Current level of particulate matter and meteorological data was taken into account in the construction of the model (checked the correlation of each variable and the future level of PM10), and unidirectional networks were used to implement it due to their ease of learning. Then, the configuration of the network (built on the...
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Application of Bayesian Networks for Forecasting Future Model of Farm
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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Estimating and Forecasting GDP in Poland with Dynamic Factor Model
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...