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Search results for: NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublicationForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublicationThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Multi-objective Weather Routing with Customised Criteria and Constraints
PublicationThe paper presents a weather routing algorithm utilising a multi-objective optimisation with constraints, namely the Multi-objective Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA). In the proposed approach weather route recommendations can be made simultaneously e.g. for passage time, fuel consumption and safety of passage by means of Pareto optimisation. The sets of criteria and constraints in the optimisation process are fully...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublicationThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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AVHRR Level1CD covering Baltic Sea area year 2005
Open Research DataThe dataset contains data derived from recordings of the AVHRR/3 radiometer operating on board the NOAA POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) Series - 5th Generation Satellites covering the Baltic Sea area. The satellite data was recorded in the years 2000-2012 directly by the HRPT station installed at the University of Gdańsk. The registration...
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AVHRR Level1CD covering Baltic Sea area year 2004
Open Research DataThe dataset contains data derived from recordings of the AVHRR/3 radiometer operating on board the NOAA POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) Series - 5th Generation Satellites covering the Baltic Sea area. The satellite data was recorded in the years 2000-2012 directly by the HRPT station installed at the University of Gdańsk. The registration...
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AVHRR Level1CD covering Baltic Sea area year 2003
Open Research DataThe dataset contains data derived from recordings of the AVHRR/3 radiometer operating on board the NOAA POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) Series - 5th Generation Satellites covering the Baltic Sea area. The satellite data was recorded in the years 2000-2012 directly by the HRPT station installed at the University of Gdańsk. The registration...
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AVHRR Level1CD covering Baltic Sea area year 2002
Open Research DataThe dataset contains data derived from recordings of the AVHRR/3 radiometer operating on board the NOAA POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) Series - 5th Generation Satellites covering the Baltic Sea area. The satellite data was recorded in the years 2000-2012 directly by the HRPT station installed at the University of Gdańsk. The registration...
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublicationThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
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Assessing the Effects of the Road Surface and Weather Conditions on Road Safety
PublicationWhen transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic (can be controlled) and partly stochastic (random and unpredictable). The set of crash contributing factors can be classified...
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublicationThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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The application of neural networks in forecasting the influence of traffic-induced vibrations on residential buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause the cracking of plaster, damage to structural elements and, in extreme cases, may even lead to the structural collapse of residential buildings. The aim of this article is to analyse the effectiveness of a method of forecasting the impact of vibrations on residential buildings using the concept of artificial intelligence. The article presents several alternative forecasting systems for which...
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Forecasting and optimalization in logistics
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Derecho Evolving from a Mesocyclone—A Study of 11 August 2017 Severe Weather Outbreak in Poland: Event Analysis and High-Resolution Simulation
PublicationThis study documents atmospheric conditions, development, and evolution of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 11 August 2017 in Poland. The emphasis is on analyzing system morphology and highlighting the importance of a mesovortex in producing the most significant wind damages. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) had a remarkable intensity and was one of the most impactful convective storms in the history...
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ADOPTED ISOCHRONE METHOD IMPROVING SHIP SAFETY IN WEATHER ROUTING WITH EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH
PublicationThe paper is focused on adaptation of an isochrone method necessary for application to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach. Authors propose an adaptation of the isochrone method with area partitioning assuring that the route found by the adopted method would not cross land. In result, when applied to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach, this proposal facilitates creation of initial population, resulting...
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Weather and Climate
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A new approach to design of weather disruption-tolerant wireless mesh networks
PublicationWireless Mesh Networks, offering transmission rates of 1–10 Gb/s per a millimeter-wave link (utilizing the 71–86 GHz band) seem to be a promising alternative to fiber optic backbone metropolitan area networks because of significantly lower costs of deployment and maintenance. However, despite providing high transmission rates in good weather conditions, high-frequency wireless links are very susceptible to weather disruptions....
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublicationThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
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Numerical Methods
e-Learning CoursesNumerical Methods: for Electronics and Telecommunications students, Master's level, semester 1 Instructor: Michał Rewieński, Piotr Sypek Course description: This course provides an introduction to computational techniques for the simulation and modeling of a broad range of engineering and physical systems. Concepts and methods discussed are widely illustrated by various applications including modeling of integrated circuits,...
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Prognozowanie właściwości złączy spawanych pod wodą metodą lokalnej komory suchej
PublicationNiniejsza praca jest poświęcona spawaniu pod wodą metodą lokalnej komory suchej (MLKS) i przedstawia metodologię oraz narzędzia umożliwiające prognozowanie właściwości złączy spawanych wykonanych przy zastosowaniu tej odmiany spawania. Monografia zawiera opis rozwoju spawania pod wodą oraz charakterystykę metod wykorzystywanych do realizacji prac spawalniczych. Zaproponowano nowy podział metod spawania pod wodą, uwzględniający...
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TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
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A MODEL FOR FORECASTING PM10 LEVELS WITH THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PublicationThis work presents a method of forecasting the level of PM10 with the use of artificial neural networks. Current level of particulate matter and meteorological data was taken into account in the construction of the model (checked the correlation of each variable and the future level of PM10), and unidirectional networks were used to implement it due to their ease of learning. Then, the configuration of the network (built on the...
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Determining and visualizing safe motion parameters of a ship navigating in severe weather conditions
PublicationThe paper presents a method of determining, organizing and displaying ship collision avoidance information, which is based on the Collision Threat Parameters Area (CTPA) technique. The method makes it possible to visualize navigational threats as well as possible collision avoidance manoeuvres. The solution is focused on supporting navigation in severe weather conditions. Normally collision avoidance decisions are made taking into...
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublicationThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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Jan Kozicki dr hab. inż. arch.
PeopleIn year 2002 after obtaining master's degree in construction was employed on Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering. In 2004 obtained master's degree in architecture on Faculty of Architecture focusing on a research outpost on Mars. Defended PhD in year 2007 in the field of numerical modeling. In 2013 obtained Licentiate degree in theoretical physics on University of Gdańsk. In year 2014 obtained habilitation in technical...
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Weather Routing System Architecture Using Onboard Data Collection and Route Optimisation
PublicationThis paper describes the architecture of a weather routing system consisting of two key elements: onboard monitoring and route optimiser sub-systems. The former is responsible for collecting various onboard measurements, such as current ship position or ship motion variables. These data, when gathered and processed, are then used for fine-tuning a ship model. The model, together with weather forecasts, is utilised by a multi-objective...
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Preference-based evolutionary multi-objective optimization in ship weather routing
PublicationIn evolutionary multi-objective optimization (EMO) the aim is to find a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. Such approach may be applied to multiple real-life problems, including weather routing (WR) of ships. The route should be optimal in terms of passage time, fuel consumption and safety of crew and cargo while taking into account dynamically changing weather conditions. Additionally it must not violate any navigational constraints...
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An innovative approach to the forecasting of energetic effects while wood sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture...
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An Innovative Approach to the Forecasting of Energetic Effects While Wood Sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specifi c cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture mechanics....
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FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN POLAND
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Numerical Modeling of Hydrosystems 2023/2024
e-Learning CoursesKurs do przedmiotu NUMERICAL MODELING OF HYDROSYSTEMS Specjalność: Environmental Engineering (WILiŚ), II stopnia, stacjonarne dr hab. inż. Michał Szydłowski, prof. PG
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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Ship weather routing optimization with dynamic constraints based on reliable synchronous roll prediction
PublicationShip routing process taking into account weather conditions is a constrained multi-objective optimization problem and it should consider various optimization criteria and constraints. Formulation of a stability-related, dynamic route optimization constraint is presented in this paper. One of the key objectives of a cross ocean sailing is finding a compromise between ship safety and economics of operation. This compromise should...
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Comparing the Effectiveness of ANNs and SVMs in Forecasting the Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Building
PublicationTraffic - induced vibrations may cause damage to structural elements and may even lead to structural collapse. The aim of the article is to compare the effectiveness of algorithms in forecasting the impact of vibrations on buildings using the Machine Learning (ML) methods. The paper presents two alternative approaches by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Factors that may affect traffic-induced...
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Numerical methods in heat and fluid flow, PG_00057408
e-Learning CoursesReiteration of information on thermodynamic cycles and extension of information on their modelling using commercial software tools. Presentation of balances, constitutive equations, how to set up conditions in CFD type codes. Equipment regulation and control in the context of heat exchangers.Presentation of the computational capabilities of the CFD calculation code ANSYS Fluent. Mass, momentum and energy balances in 0D and 3D terms.Analysis...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Bi-GRU-APSO: Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit with Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Sales Forecasting in Multi-Channel Retail
PublicationIn the present scenario, retail sales forecasting has a great significance in E-commerce companies. The precise retail sales forecasting enhances the business decision making, storage management, and product sales. Inaccurate retail sales forecasting can decrease customer satisfaction, inventory shortages, product backlog, and unsatisfied customer demands. In order to obtain a better retail sales forecasting, deep learning models...
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Numerical Modeling of Hydrosystems 2022/2023 (summer)
e-Learning CoursesKurs do przedmiotu NUMERICAL MODELING OF HYDROSYSTEMS Specjalność: Environmental Engineering (WILiŚ), II stopnia, stacjonarne dr hab. inż. Michał Szydłowski, prof. PG
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Numerical Modeling of Hydrosystems 2022/2023 (winter)
e-Learning CoursesKurs do przedmiotu NUMERICAL MODELING OF HYDROSYSTEMS Specjalność: Environmental Engineering (WILiŚ), II stopnia, stacjonarne dr hab. inż. Michał Szydłowski, prof. PG
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Forecasting of railway track tamping based on settlement of sleepers using fuzzy logic
PublicationThe sleepers in a railway track transfer vertical, transverse and longitudinal loads to the track ballast and subgrade. The sleepers allow for keeping the distance between the rails constant. The thickness of ballast should be between 16 and 35 cm depending on the design standard of the track, and it should be densified where the ballast supports the sleeper. The exploitation causes contamination of the ballast, crushing the material...
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Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter23/24)
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Weather and Climate Extremes
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