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Search results for: INFLATION FORECAST TARGETING, INFLATION FORECAST, CREDIBILITY INDEX, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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SPATIAL APPROACH TO HETEROGENEITY OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EURO AREA
PublicationIn this article, we examine the spatial heterogeneities in inflation expectations of the euro area consumers. We expect to find them heterogeneous in our research period of 2001-2016. Contrary to standard examination of heterogeneity, a spatial correlation analysis is applied by referring to global and local correlation measures. It is performed with the economic distance-based weights (the difference in HICP rates). Application...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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Inflation rate (In percentage) in Iran
Open Research DataCurrently, a major concern of the Iranian economy is high inflation. Increasing prices of basic goods, and their increase in wages do not follow. At the same time the unemployment rate has raised. The following data set present the inflation rate between 2010-2020 (forecast).
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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INFLUENCE OF TEST CONDITIONS ON TYRE/ROAD NOISE MEASURED BY THE DRUM METHOD
PublicationTyre/road noise is one of the most important environmental problems related to road traffic. Nowadays a few standard procedures of tyre/road noise measurements are in use. Unfortunately, measurement conditions specified within relevant standards are very different. For example, procedure described in ISO 11819-2 used for pavement investigations requires tyre load of 3200 N and capped inflation pressure of 200 kPa. At the same time...
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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INFLUENCE OF LOAD AND INFLATION PRESSURE ON THE TYRE ROLLING RESISTANCE
PublicationTyre load and inflation pressure are important factors controlling rolling resistance of road vehicles. The article presents results obtained in the Technical University of Gdańsk during laboratory and road measurements of different car tyres rolling on different pavements. The knowledge of rolling resistance characteristics is important for modelling car dynamics as well as fuel consumption. It is also necessary to establish proper...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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The influence of inflation pressure and ambient temperature on the value of the truck tires rolling resistance
PublicationThe articlediscusses the effect of inflation pressure and the ambient temperature on the value of the rolling resistance of truck tires which directly translates into fuel consumption. For this purpose, a series of measurements was made at two ambient temperatures (at 25°C and -15°C), using different pumping pressures.
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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The Business Environment of Georgia and Ukraine: Approaches to a Comparative Analysis
PublicationThe formation of a favourable business environment and the intensification of entrepreneurial activity on this basis is one of the priorities of economic policy of governments around the world. The aim of this article is to conduct a comparative analysis of some of the characteristics of the business environment of Georgia and Ukraine. The theoretical basis of the study is the understanding of the business environment as a necessary...
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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Diabetes Forecast
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Central banks and the weaponization of inflation
EventsSerdecznie zapraszamy na kolejny webinar z cyklu Rethinking Economics Gdańsk.
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Accurate modeling of layout parasitic to forecast EMI emitted from a DC-DC converter.
PublicationThis paper illustrates how to account for all parasitic due to the layout of a power converter (inductive and capacitive), in order to forecast electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The method is generic, and is validated here in the simple example of a DC-DC converter, realized on different technologies: insulated metal substrate (IMS), printed circuit board (PCB). In addition, several layouts aspects will be investigated. Conclusions...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Equilibrium price - modelling, forecast and application
PublicationNowoczesną gospodarkę charakteryzuje wzrastające znaczenie cen. Znajomość ogólnych zasad mechanizmu kształtującego ceny oraz analizy cen umożliwiają przedsiębiorstwom przewidzenie ceny równowagi i podjęcie przynoszącej zyski decyzji, zwłaszcza na rynku oligopolu homogenicznego, gdzie przedsiębiorcy muszą brać pod uwagę reakcję konkurencji. Przedstawiony w artykule, dynamiczny model ekonometryczny cen benzyny, na rynku paliw płynnych...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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The point forecast of the situation of the examined company on the market
PublicationOkreślono sytuację badanego przedsiębiorstwa na rynku za pomocą analizy portfolio, w aspektach wzrostu rynku oraz względnego udziału badanego przedsiębiorstwa w rynku. Analiza objęła zarówno okres retrospektywny jak i prognozowany.
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Reliability of quality forecast for hybrid metal-working machinery
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Effect of Active Mining Impact On Properties with Engineering Structures – Forecast and Final Result Discrepancies
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Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecast Based Wind Turbine Selection and Siting for Urban Environment
PublicationWind energy being a free source of energy is becoming popular over the past decades and is being studied extensively. Integration of wind turbines is now being expanded to urban and offshore settings in contrast to the conventional wind farms in relatively open areas. The direct installation of wind turbines poses a potential risk, as it may result in financial losses in scenarios characterized by inadequate wind resource availability....
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Economic and Social Changes-Facts Trends Forecast
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Effect of Forecast Climate Changes on Water Needs of Giant Miscanthus Cultivated in the Kuyavia Region in Poland
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Impact of Investments and R&D Costs in Renewable Energy Technologies on Companies’ Profitability Indicators: Assessment and Forecast
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Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 218-224, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 239-245, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 225-231, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 267-273, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 281-287, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 295-301, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 211-217, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 302-308, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 253-259, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 274-280, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 246-252, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 288-294, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 260-266, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 232-238, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 204-210, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...
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WRF-METEOPG: numerical weather forecast data for Poland - Days 1-7, Year 2021
Open Research DataWRF-METEOPG is a numerical weather forecast system developed at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland. The system was built on the basis of the Weather Research and Forecast model version 4.2 and implemented at Centre of Informatics Tricity Academic Supercomputer & Network. Physics parametrization...