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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: DEVELOPMENT FORECASTS
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Integration of the Eurasian Economic Union in Comparison to European Union Integration
PublikacjaThe aim of the article is to show the specificity of the integration of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) on the example of the integration of the European Union (EU). The EEU is a relatively young grouping that was established in 2015 by Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation. Its creators try to give the Eurasian integration process a different...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublikacjaFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Weather Routing System Architecture Using Onboard Data Collection and Route Optimisation
PublikacjaThis paper describes the architecture of a weather routing system consisting of two key elements: onboard monitoring and route optimiser sub-systems. The former is responsible for collecting various onboard measurements, such as current ship position or ship motion variables. These data, when gathered and processed, are then used for fine-tuning a ship model. The model, together with weather forecasts, is utilised by a multi-objective...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublikacjaThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublikacjaThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublikacjaDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Is There any Demand for the Workers Aged 50+ in Poland?
PublikacjaThe process of ageing affects all the European Union Member States, including Poland. According to forecasts by the Central Statistical Office, in 2035, the population of Poland will decrease in relation to 2010 by more than 2 million, and the share of people aged 50+ in the total population will increase from 34.8% to 46.6% (Prognoza ludności 2009). In the context of current and projected demographic changes, a discussion is taking...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublikacjaSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Energy Demand of Short-Range Inland Ferry with Series Hybrid Propulsion Depending on the Navigation Strategy
PublikacjaInterest in hybrid propulsion systems that can be used on small vessels has increased significantly in recent years. They can replace inefficient and environmentally burdensome conventional systems based on diesel engines. Hybrid propulsion has many advantages such as high energy efficiency and virtually noiseless operation, and therefore it fits well with the current trends of “green shipping” and “zero emission”. The aim of the...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublikacjaDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Mechanical characteristics of welded joints between different stainless steels grades
Publikacjanvestigation of mechanical characteristics of welded joints is one of the most important tasks that allow determining their functional properties. Due to the very high, still rising, cost of some stainless steels it is justified, on economic grounds, welding austenitic stainless steel with steels that are corrosion-resistant like duplex ones. According to forecasts the price of...
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Model of Nutrient and Pesticide Outflow with Surface Water to Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea)
PublikacjaCoastal basins are particularly exposed to the adverse impact of anthropogenic stress. In many places, despite only the seasonal increase in the number of residents, progressive urbanization and associated changes in the catchment characteristics are noticeable. Puck Bay is part of the Gulf of Gdansk and belongs to the Baltic Sea. Although the area of Puck Bay is covered by the Natura 2000 Network, this has not saved it from eutrophication...
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublikacjaThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
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Cooperative control in production and logistics
PublikacjaClassical applications of control engineering and information and communication technology (ICT) in production and logistics are often done in a rigid, centralized and hierarchical way. These inflexible approaches are typically not able to cope with the complexities of the manufacturing environment, such as the instabilities, uncertainties and abrupt changes caused by internal and external disturbances, or a large number and variety...
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Tools for road infrastructure safety management in Poland
PublikacjaThe objective of road safety infrastructure management is to ensure that when roads are planned, designed, built and used road risks can be systematically identified, assessed, removed and mitigated. There are a number of approaches to road safety management. European Union Directive 2008/96/EC requires EU member states to use four basic tools of road safety infrastructure management. An overview of the methods in these countries...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublikacjaPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublikacjaWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Tools for road infrastructure safety management – Polish experiences
PublikacjaThe objective of road safety infrastructure management is to ensure that when roads are planned, designed, built and used road risks can be systematically identified, assessed, removed and mitigated. There are a number of approaches to road safety management. European Union Directive 2008/96/EC requires EU member states to use four basic tools of road safety infrastructure management. An overview of the methods in these countries...
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Using creative approaches for discovering biomorphic forms for appropriate human habitation in natural environments. Case study of Kashubian Lake District
PublikacjaThe research process consisted of studies of natural and cultural conditions of the Kashubian Lake District This is an area of exceptional natural conditions. For centuries, it has seen human habitation with respect to landscape values. Given its extensive forest cover and the lack of heterogeneity of natural conditions, the area has become an interesting inspiration for the author’s original project. The project is aimed at searching...