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Search results for: PROBABILISTIC MODELS
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Melody Harmonization with Interpolated Probabilistic Models
PublicationMost melody harmonization systems use the generative hidden Markov model (HMM), which model the relation between the hidden chords and the observed melody. Relations to other variables, such as the tonality or the metric structure, are handled by training multiple HMMs or are ignored. In this paper, we propose a discriminative means of combining multiple probabilistic models of various musical variables by means of model interpolation....
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Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice
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Towards More Realistic Probabilistic Models for Data Structures: The External Path Length in Tries under the Markov Model
PublicationTries are among the most versatile and widely used data structures on words. They are pertinent to the (internal) structure of (stored) words and several splitting procedures used in diverse contexts ranging from document taxonomy to IP addresses lookup, from data compression (i.e., Lempel- Ziv'77 scheme) to dynamic hashing, from partial-match queries to speech recognition, from leader election algorithms to distributed hashing...
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Probabilistic Analysis of Structure Models using Target Random Sampling (TRS)
PublicationThe work presents testing methods of sensitivity and reliability of mechanical or structural systems. All computations concerned the case of Zigler column, a simple model of a compressed column involving two random variables only. A conclusion was drawn that the standard Monte Carlo method, its reduction variants and the response surface method allow to assess the sensitivity of structural response to the variation of random structural...
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The Algorithm of Modelling and Analysis of Latent Semantic Relations: Linear Algebra vs. Probabilistic Topic Models
PublicationThis paper presents the algorithm of modelling and analysis of Latent Semantic Relations inside the argumentative type of documents collection. The novelty of the algorithm consists in using a systematic approach: in the combination of the probabilistic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Linear Algebra based Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) methods; in considering each document as a complex of topics, defined on the basis of separate...
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Improving the procedure of probabilistic load testing design of typical bridges based on structural response similarities
PublicationThis paper concerns load testing of typical bridge structures performed prior to operation. In-situ tests of a two-span post-tensioned bridge loaded with three vehicles of 38-ton mass each formed the input of this study. On the basis of the results of these measurements, an advanced FEM model of the structure was developed for which the sensitivity analysis was performed for chosen uncertainty sources. Three uncorrelated random...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublicationThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with the use oobability models
PublicationThis paper presents a new original method of selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with regard to probabilistic models. It was proposed to use the normal distribution to describe the operational loads of the main receivers. The principles for determination of parameters of load distribution and design power of the main engines were formulated. Lastly, the principles of selection of the size and number of main engines...
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Reliability of production machines in the bakery industry – theoretical and practical issues
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present probabilistic models, which were then used to analyze the reliability of production machines in the baking industry. The author conducted research in the period from January 2, 2016 to December 31, 2018 regarding the measurement of reliability of a traditional production system based on a probabilistic concept. Due to the limited scope of the article, reliability calculations for a set of thermo-oil...
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Data-driven, probabilistic model for attainable speed for ships approaching Gdańsk harbour
PublicationThe growing demand for maritime transportation leads to increased traffic in ports. From this arises the need to observe the consequences of the specific speed ships reach when approaching seaports. However, usually the analyzed cases refer only to the statistical evaluation of the studied phenomenon or to the empirical modelling, ignoring the mutual influence of variables such as ship type, length or weather conditions. In this...
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Probabilistic estimation of diverse soil condition impact on vertical axis tank deformation
PublicationThe calculations of fuel tanks should take into account the geometric imperfections of the structure as well as the variability of the material parameters of the foundation. The deformation of the tank shell can have a significant impact on the limit state of the structure and its operating conditions. The paper presents a probabilistic analysis of a vertical-axis, floating-roof cylindrical shell of a tank with a capacity of 50000...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the safety instrumented systems with the uncertainty and security aspects
PublicationSafety and security aspects consist of two different group of functional requirements for the control and protection systems. In the paper it is proposed that the security analysis results can be used as a factor increasing or decreasing the risk level. It concerns a process of determining required safety integrity level of given safety functions. The authors propose a new approach for functional safety risk analysis. In this case...
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Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: a probabilistic approach
PublicationThis paper presents a probabilistic methodology that allows the study of the interactions between changes in rainfall dynamics and impervious areas in urban catchment on a long- and short-term basis. The proposed probabilistic model predict future storm overflows while taking into account the dynamics of changes in impervious areas and rainfall. In this model, a logistic regression method was used to simulate overflow resulting...
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS OF APPLICATION OF MARKOV AND SEMI-MARKOV PROCESSES TO RELIABILITY MODELS OF MULTI-STATE TECHNICAL OBJECTS
PublicationDuring rational operation of technical objects and systems various operational decisions are made and decision-making process itself should be consisted in selecting that considered most favourable out of all possible to be taken. Choice of such decision is possible after taking into account many different information items but it never be completely correct without accounting for data and indices dealing with reliability. In...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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The Effect of the Selection of Three-Dimensional Random Numerical Soil Models on Strip Foundation Settlements
PublicationThis paper delivers a probabilistic attempt to prove that the selection of a random three-dimensional finite element (FE) model of a subsoil affects the computed settlements. Parametricanalysis of a random soil block is conducted, assuming a variable subsoil Young’s modulus inparticular finite elements. The modulus is represented by a random field or different-sized setsof random variables; in both cases, the same truncated...
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Application of Pierson-Moskowitz wave spectrum to solution differential equations of multihull vessel
PublicationMotion of a dynamic system can be generated by different external or internal factors. At mathematical modelling external excitation factors of the most significant effect on the system, are selected. Such external factors are usually called excitations. Response of the system to given excitations is mathematically characterized by a definite transformation called operator of a system. For a broad class of dynamic systems the...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublicationIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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Sensitivity analysis of simple random beam models by means of Monte Carlo Methods using Variance Reductions Techniques
PublicationA probabilistic sensitivity analysis of two nonlinear bar structures is presented. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the Monte Carlo method. The imperfections of the structures and the applied loads are adapted as random variables. Based on all of the generated input variables, an output response of the system is sought. Afterwards, a coefficient responsible for the structure failure is calculated and the limit state...
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Improving the Accuracy in Sentiment Classification in the Light of Modelling the Latent Semantic Relations
PublicationThe research presents the methodology of improving the accuracy in sentiment classification in the light of modelling the latent semantic relations (LSR). The objective of this methodology is to find ways of eliminating the limitations of the discriminant and probabilistic methods for LSR revealing and customizing the sentiment classification process (SCP) to the more accurate recognition of text tonality. This objective was achieved...
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Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Symbolic Polyphonic Pitch Modeling
PublicationSymbolic pitch modeling is a way of incorporating knowledge about relations between pitches into the process of an- alyzing musical information or signals. In this paper, we propose a family of probabilistic symbolic polyphonic pitch models, which account for both the “horizontal” and the “vertical” pitch struc- ture. These models are formulated as linear or log-linear interpo- lations of up to fi ve sub-models, each of which is...
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Application of a stochastic compartmental model to approach the spread of environmental events with climatic bias
PublicationWildfires have significant impacts on both environment and economy, so understanding their behaviour is crucial for the planning and allocation of firefighting resources. Since forest fire management is of great concern, there has been an increasing demand for computationally efficient and accurate prediction models. In order to address this challenge, this work proposes applying a parameterised stochastic model to study the propagation...
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Average Size of a Suffix Tree for Markov Sources
PublicationWe study a suffix tree built from a sequence generated by a Markovian source. Such sources are more realistic probabilistic models for text generation, data compression, molecular applications, and so forth. We prove that the average size of such a suffix tree is asymptotically equivalent to the average size of a trie built over n independentsequences from the same Markovian source. This equivalenceis only known for memoryless...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublicationThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE REHABILITATION OF HISTORIC TIMBER STRUCTURES ON THE EXAMPLES OF GREEK CATHOLIC CHURCHES IN POLISH SUBCARPATHIA
PublicationThis work concerns structural and sensitivity analysis of carpentry joints used in historic wooden buildings in south-eastern Poland and western Ukraine. These are primarily sacred buildings and the types of joints characteristic for this region are saddle notch and dovetail joints. Thus, in the study the authors focus on these types of corner log joints. Numerical models of the joints are defined and finite element simulations...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublicationThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublicationThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Current issues of functional safety and cybersecurity analysis of the industrial and critical infrastructures
PublicationThis article addresses some functional safety assessment procedures with cybersecurity aspects in critical industrial installations with regard to the functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The functional safety management includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on the risk assessment...
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Mitigating Time-Constrained Stolen-Credentials Content Poisoning in an NDN Setting
PublicationNDN is a content-centric networking architecture using globally addressable information objects, created by publishers and cached by network nodes to be later accessed by subscribers. Content poisoning attacks consist in the substi-tution by an intruder publisher of bogus objects for genuine ones created by an honest publisher. With valid credentials stolen from an honest publisher, such attacks seem unstoppa-ble unless object...
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublicationThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Adaptive Method for Modeling of Temporal Dependencies between Fields of Vision in Multi-Camera Surveillance Systems
PublicationA method of modeling the time of object transition between given pairs of cameras based on the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is proposed in this article. Temporal dependencies modeling is a part of object re-identification based on the multi-camera experimental framework. The previously utilized Expectation-Maximization (EM) approach, requiring setting the number of mixtures arbitrarily as an input parameter, was extended with the...
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Sensitivity analysis based on non-intrusive regression-based polynomial chaos expansion for surgical mesh modelling
PublicationThe modelling of a system containing implants used in ventral hernia repair and human tissue suffers from many uncertainties. Thus, a probabilistic approach is needed. The goal of this study is to define an efficient numerical method to solve non-linear biomechanical models supporting the surgeon in decisions about ventral hernia repair. The model parameters are subject to substantial variability owing to, e.g., abdominal wall...
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Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Analysis and Management in Smart Manufacturing Systems
PublicationThis chapter addresses some of the issues of the integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management with regard to selected references and the functional safety standards: IEC 61508, IEC 61511, ISO 13849-1 and IEC 62061, and a cybersecurity standard IEC 62443 that concerns the industrial automation and control systems. The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial systems that include the information...
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PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF A SPACE TRUSS BY MEANS OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL VARIABLE DESCRIPTION
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present a variant of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine mean values and standard deviations of limit loads of engineering structures. This approach is illustrated by limit state analysis of a space truss, considering geometric and material imperfections. The calculations were performed for different random models, so the influence of random parameters on the limit load of the truss can...
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Safety integrity level verification for safety-related functions with security aspects
PublicationThe article is devoted some important issues of the functional safety analysis, in particular the safetyintegrity level (SIL) verification of safety functions to be implemented within the distributed controland protection systems with regard to cyber security aspects. The procedure for functional safety man-agement includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safetyrequirements and definition...
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Multi-layered mineral glass units used as viewport elements of underwater ship structures
PublicationIn the paper, Authors deals with viewport elements of underwater marine constructions. If a single-plate viewport constructions are considered, big thicknesses of the glass plate are required to resist the pressure. To build the viewports from the commercially accessible glass panes, multi-layered glass units are proposed in the paper. Numerical calculations are presented, summarized and compared with experimental tests. Focusing...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Designing Control and Protection Systems with Regard to Integrated Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Aspects
PublicationThis article addresses current problems of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling for functional safety management in the life cycle of safety-related systems. Two main stages in the lifecycle of these systems are distinguished, namely the design and operation. The risk analysis and probabilistic modelling differ in these stages in view of available knowledge and data. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved, both qualitative...
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Integrity level verification for safety-related functions
PublicationThis article describes methods for safety integrity level (SIL) verification of safety-related functions with regard to probabilistic criteria given international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. These functions are to be realized using the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE) systems or safety instrumented systems (SIS). Some methods are proposed for quantitative probabilistic modelling taking into account...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses the reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo method, the Point Estimate Method and the Response Surface Method. A benchmark truss structure example is analyzed. A set of numerical calculations of critical load is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced probabilistic calculations. Using the samples, numerical...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo Method (MCM), the Point Estimate Method (PEM) and the Response Surface Method (RSM). A benchmark truss structure and a simplified full–size engineering tower are both analyzed. A set of ultimate load numerical calculations is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures using Monte Carlom simulation
PublicationThe paper presents the concept of probabilistic sensitivity of structural limit states with respect to given design variables. A general idea is presented, illustrated by a simple case solved in an analytical way. More general approach is presented for the engineering structures, in this case a dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure is involved as part of the methodology. Illustration of the engineering case is done, by means...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures : The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationThe main issue of the paper is the probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures with respect to selected input design variables. Attempt to the problem is done by the dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Basic design variables are random variables of given probability distributions, presented in the form of random numbers. Uni-parametrical increment of the dominant basic variable (basic variables) is done,...
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Semantic Analysis and Text Summarization in Socio-Technical Systems
PublicationIn this chapter the authors present the results of the development the methodology for increasing the reliability of the functioning of the Socio-Technical System. The existed methods and algorithms for processing unstructured (textual) information were studied. Taking into account noted above strengths and weaknesses of Discriminant and Probabilistic approaches of Latent Semantic Relations analysis in of the summarization projection...
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Implementation of Non-Probabilistic Methods for Stability Analysis of Nonlocal Beam with Structural Uncertainties
PublicationIn this study, a non-probabilistic approach based Navier’s Method (NM) and Galerkin Weighted Residual Method (GWRM) in term of double parametric form has been proposed to investigate the buckling behavior of Euler-Bernoulli nonlocal beam under the framework of the Eringen's nonlocal elasticity theory, considering the structural parameters as imprecise or uncertain. The uncertainties in Young’s modulus and diameter of the beam are...
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Graph security testing
PublicationSet S ⊂ V is called secure set iff ∀ X ⊂ S | N [ X ] ∩ S | ≥ | N ( X ) \ S | [3]. That means that every subset of a secure set has at least as many friends (neighbour vertices in S) as enemies (neighbour vertices outside S) and will be defended in case of attack. Problem of determining if given set is secure is co −NP -complete, there is no efficient algorithm solving it [3]. Property testers are algorithms that distinguish inputs...
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A probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components
PublicationThe work proposes a probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components using Bayesian inference and limited measurement data. The new approach for modelling measurement uncertainty is proposed based on the results of previous corrosion tests that incorporate the non-uniform character of the corroded surface of structural components. The proposed framework's basic features are outlined,...
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Application of probabilistic tools to extend load test design of bridges prior to opening
PublicationLoad tests of bridges are widely performed in a large number of countries. Deterministic comparison of measurement results to the theoretical, FEM (finite element method)-based outcomes with possible further calibration is mostly applied. Sometimes, the data collected in the tests are also used to calibrate the reliability factors of bridge structures or their components. This work proposes to complement the stage of the load test...