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Search results for: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, FINANCIAL RATIOS, FUZZY LOGIC, FORECASTING, FINANCIAL CRISIS
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublicationThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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Fuzzy logic in financial management
PublicationW rozdziale tym przedstawiono rozważania na temat możliwości prognozowania sytuacji finansowej gospodarstw domowych przy zastosowaniu logiki rozmytej. Autor zaproponował model składający się ze zmiennych wejściowych opartych na informacjach demograficznych i finansowych konsumentów - na przykład: wiek, wykształcenie, liczba dzieci, wynagrodzenie, stopień zabezpieczenia finansowego.
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
PublicationThe objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers,...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublicationRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households
PublicationThis paper is an evaluation of the common macro-economic, micro-economic, and social factors affecting households’ financial situations. Moreover, the author’s objective was to develop a fuzzy logic model for forecasting fluctuations in the number of nonperforming consumer loans in a country using the example of Poland. This study represents one of the first attempts in the global literature to develop such a forecasting model...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublicationLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Automated Valuation Model based on fuzzy and rough set theory for real estate market with insufficient source data
PublicationObjective monitoring of the real estate value is a requirement to maintain balance, increase security and minimize the risk of a crisis in the financial and economic sector of every country. The valuation of real estate is usually considered from two points of view, i.e. individual valuation and mass appraisal. It is commonly believed that Automated Valuation Models (AVM) should be devoted to mass appraisal, which requires a large...
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Impact of Innovative Financial Products on Financial Systems: Exchange Traded Products and the Polish Financial System
PublicationExchange Traded Products (ETPs) are one of the most recent and most rapidly developing financial products. As their assets grow they have an increasing impact on financial systems in many countries, including USA, UK or Japan. Development of ETPs is linked with many opportunities and threats for the local financial systems. Their correct assessment is becoming more difficult due to the growing complexity of the available products,...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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International trade and containerization - certain trends after the financial crisis of 2007-2008
PublicationThe following article presents the situation on international trade and the global maritime container transport market after the financial crisis of 2007-2008. In the first part the author focuses on describing the specifics of containerization in global trade. The following parts include characteristic of container terminal operators and shipping lines. Finally, significant changes in the global container handling market after...
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Financial Markets and Bankruptcy Systems: Is there a Relationship?
PublicationPurpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Survey on fuzzy logic methods in control systems of electromechanical plants
PublicationРассмотрены алгоритмы управления электромеханическими системами с использованием теории нечеткой логики, приводятся основные положения их синтеза, рассматриваются методы анализа их устойчивости на основе нечетких функций Ляпунова. Эти алгоритмы чаще всего реализуются в виде различных регуляторов, применение которых целесообразно в системах, математическая модель которых не известна, не детерминирована или является строго нелинейной,...
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Heterogeneity of national accounting systems, world-class universities and financial resources: What are the links?
PublicationThis study investigates the relationship between university financial resources, applied accounting systems, and the place of a university in the Shanghai Ranking. We find a strong relationship between the financial resources under the control of a world-class university and the position of that university in the highest tier of the global ranking. We propose a model (available online) to predict a university’s tier in the ranking...
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Innovative investment funds and stability of financial systems: Nonparametric study of exchange-traded funds in Europe
PublicationThe main aim of the paper is investigation of the potential contribution of exchange-trade funds (ETFs) to the instability of the European financial systems. The paper begins with presentation of the key theoretical concepts with regard to ETFs and financial stability. We discuss the key attributes of ETFs as the innovative category of investment funds, their hypothesized impact on the financial stability as well as briefly describe...
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Exchange-Traded Funds on European Markets: Has Critical Mass been Reached? Implications for Financial Systems.
PublicationExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most rapidly expanding categories of financial products in Europe. One of the key yet still unanswered questions is whether European ETF markets have reached the size at which they could affect the financial systems. In our study, we examine 13 European countries during the period 2004–2017 in order to trace whether the share of ETFs in the total assets of investment funds has reached...
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Experience Based Clinical Decision Support Systems: An Overview and Case Studies
PublicationThis chapter briefly overviews the evolution of the application of the Decisional DNA and the Set of Experience Knowledge Structure (SOEKS) in the medical domain and in particular in the specific case of the experience-based decision support systems. Decisional DNA, as a knowledge representation structure, offers great possibilities on gathering explicit knowledge of formal decision events as well as a tool for decision making...
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Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries
PublicationExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the fastest-growing types of innovative financial products. The emergence and spread of these instruments have been facilitated by the digital revolution. Information and communication technology (ICT) is profoundly reshaping the global economic landscape, laying solid foundations for unrestricted and unbounded flows of information and knowledge, eliminating information asymmetries, and furthering...
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Forecasting of railway track tamping based on settlement of sleepers using fuzzy logic
PublicationThe sleepers in a railway track transfer vertical, transverse and longitudinal loads to the track ballast and subgrade. The sleepers allow for keeping the distance between the rails constant. The thickness of ballast should be between 16 and 35 cm depending on the design standard of the track, and it should be densified where the ballast supports the sleeper. The exploitation causes contamination of the ballast, crushing the material...
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Fuzzy decision support system for the control of budget and schedule in SPM
PublicationObiektem rozważań jest komputerowy system wspierania decyzji kierowniczych w zakresie zarządzania budżetem i harmonogramem przy realizacji projektów informatycznych. Omawiany system opary jest na dynamicznych modelach rozmytych podlegających bieżącemu dostrajaniu na podstawie danych z obserwacji zarządzanego procesu. Wstępny projekt modeli rozmytych oparty został na danych zarządczych pochodzących z realizacji dwu projektów informatycznych....
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Bridging challenges of clinical decision support systems with a semantic approach. A case study on breast cancer
PublicationThe integration of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) in nowadays clinical environments has not been fully achieved yet. Although numerous approaches and technologies have been proposed since 1960, there are still open gaps that need to be bridged. In this work we present advances from the established state of the art, overcoming some of the most notorious reported difficulties in: (i) automating CDSS, (ii) clinical workflow...
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublicationJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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Four Degree-of-Freedom Hydrodynamic Maneuvering Model of a Small Azipod-Actuated Ship With Application to Onboard Decision Support Systems
PublicationThe main contribution of this paper is a numerical ship motion model of NTNU’s research vessel Gunnerus, capturing the surge, sway, roll, and yaw dynamics when sailing in uniform and steady currents. The model utilizes a crossflow drag formulation for the transverse viscous loads, and it includes a nonlinear formulation for the propulsion and steering loads provided by two azipod thrusters. A wide range of experimental data obtained...
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Financial impact analysis of going public at the Warsaw Stock Exchange: Using Fuzzy Set Theory to understand behaviours of mature companies
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A new fuzzy model of multi-criteria decision support based on Bayesian networks for the urban areas' decarbonization planning
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Decision Support in Selecting a Reliable Strategy for Sustainable Urban Transport Based on Laplacian Energy of T-Spherical Fuzzy Graphs
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MULTI-CRITERIA INVESTMENT DECISION SUPPORT MODEL USING FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (F-AHP) METHOD FOR POWER INDUSTRY
PublicationIn this paper, the comparative analysis of two wind farm construction projects was presented. This particular type of analysis is commonly applied before purchasing investment project being in a planning phase by a company interested in its development. Conduction of this type of analysis is prompted by the necessity to take into consideration the requirements of Polish legislation. Comparison of wind farm construction projects...
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The Weather as an Indicator for Decision-Making Support Systems Regarding the Control of Cutworms in Beets and Cereal Leaf Beetles in Cereals and Their Adoption in Farming Practice
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Intelligent Knowledge-Base Model for IT Support Organization Evolution
PublicationThe goal of the paper is building the knowledge-based model for predicting the state of the IT support organization. These organizations, critical for development of various business sectors, are facing the problem of their transformation. It is the result of the fundamental change in the role of the IT organizations in the current economy. The complexity of the processes, the difficulty adjusting the operations and limited ability...
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DESIGN LOGICAL LINGUISTIC MODELS TO CALCULATE NECESSITY IN TRUCKS DURING AGRICULTURAL CARGOES LOGISTICS USING FUZZY LOGIC
Publication: The study is aimed to develop the logic-linguistic models to design a number of rules for the correct calculation of the vehicles needed, taking into account the technical, technological, and weather and climate conditions of the harvesting and transport complex. The article has shown that the construction of the design of logic-linguistic models was not performed earlier to solve the problem of the agro-industrial production...
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Applying Fuzzy Logic of Expert Knowledge for Accurate Predictive Algorithms of Customer Traffic Flows in Theme Parks
PublicationThis study analyzes two forecasting models based on the application of fuzzy logic and evaluates their effectiveness in predicting visitor expenditure and length of stay at a popular theme park. The forecasting models are based on a set of more than 600 decision rules constructed in the form of a complex series of IF-THEN statements. These algorithms store expert knowledge. A descriptive instrument that records the individual visitor's...
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Improving the regulation of the derivatives market as an objective prerequisite for sustainable development of the global financial system
PublicationThe development of financial markets is characterized by the emergence of new financial instruments, in particular derivatives, the risk level analysis of which is complicated. Counterparties are not always fully aware of and do not adequately assess the potential risks of derivatives, which may lead to large financial losses and sometimes bankruptcies. The purpose of the study is to generalize approaches to regulating derivative...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Knowledge Management for Managing Crisis in Tourism: Theoretical insights
PublicationCOVID-19 has caused an unprecedented crisis affecting the entire tourism industry. Accommodation, food, and travel sectors have been affected by the decreased number of visitors, which had a ripple effect on the financial situation of the whole industry. The purpose of this work is a better understanding of the role of knowledge management in terms of mitigating the crisis in the tourism sector, as well as a development of the...
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Public Finance in Poland in a COVID Fog: A Look Through the Lens of Fiscal Transparency and Accountability
PublicationAbstract. Goal– The aim of the article is to identify dysfunctional phenomena (implementation of specific mechanisms/solutions and actions taken), generating increased opacity and limit the responsibility/accountability of public f inance in Poland, exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. Methods– descriptive analysis, comparative analysis and financial analysis methods were used. Results– fiscal transparency and accountability in...
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Is Artificial Intelligence Ready to Assess an Enterprise’s Financial Security?
PublicationThis study contributes to the literature on financial security by highlighting the relevance of the perceptions and resulting professional judgment of stakeholders. Assessing a company’s financial security using only economic indicators—as suggested in the existing literature—would be inaccurate when undertaking a comprehensive study of financial security. Specifically, indices and indicators based on financial or managerial reporting...
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Multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers for U-tube steam generator in nuclear power plant
PublicationIn the paper, analysis of multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers for steam generator of pressurized water reactor (PWR) working in wide range of thermal power changes is presented. The U-tube steam generator has a nonlinear dynamics depending on thermal power transferred from coolant of the primary loop of the PWR plant. Control of water level in the steam generator conducted by a traditional PID controller...
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Credit default swaps and banks
PublicationThis chapter aims to explore the evolving role of credit default swaps (CDS) in managing and transferring default risk from the perspective of banks from a holistic perspective. This chapter examines credit default swaps (CDSs) as derivative financial instruments that transfer credit risk on debt securities. While CDSs offer benefits such as risk management and risk trading, they also introduce potential systemic risks, as evidenced...
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Kształtowanie wartości wskaźników wspomagania finan-sowego przez ponadprzeciętnie rentowne MSP w okresie dobrej i złej koniunktury gospodarczej
PublicationW artykule porównano kształtowanie wartości wskaźników z obszaru wspomagania finansowego przez ponadprzeciętnie rentowne MSP w okresie dobrej i złej koniunktury gospodarczej. Celem przeprowadzonych badań było ponadto zaproponowanie przedziałów wartości rekomendowanych dla wskaźników z obszaru wspomagania finansowego, z osobna dla okresu dobrej jak i złej koniunktury gospodarczej. W trakcie przepro-wadzonych badań uwzględniono...
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Interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management based on multi-agent system
PublicationThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and the support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet. The approach integrates meteorological data and forecasts, air quality and emission monitoring, dynamic 3D simulation modelling and forecasting,...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Diamond investments – Is the market free from multiple price bubbles?
PublicationThe following study aims to investigate whether multiple price bubbles, in which the quoted market price of diamonds significantly deviates from their fundamental value, exist in the diamond market. It was conducted using ADF, SADF and GSADF tests, with the latter found to be an optimal form of evaluating the analysed issue. The presented results support the conclusion that the diamond market is not free from periods defined as...
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ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL SECURITY OF AN ENTERPRISE ON THE BASIS OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS
PublicationThe article substantiates that the level of company’s financial security depends not so much on the indicators of its activity, but on its perception of decision-makers and other stakeholders. At the same time, this perception is formed due to the continuous participation of the stakeholder in operations, constant monitoring of financial indicators, the study of current approaches to enterprise management, changes in the environment,...
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Application of artificial intelligence into/for control of flexible manufacturing cell
PublicationThe application of artificial intelligence in technological processes control is usually limited. One problem is how to respond to changes in the environment of manufacturing system. A way to overcome the above shortcoming is to use fuzzy logic for representation of the inexact information. In this paper fundamentals of artificial intelligence and fuzzy logic are introduced from a theoretical point of view. Still more the fuzzy...
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Tax Policy Tools of Selected European Countries as a Mechanism for Counteracting the Effects of the Crisis Caused by the COVID-19 Disease Pandemic
PublicationCrises play an important role in a economics life. They are common and it is impossible to omit them. This following study investigates the concept of ‘crisis’ in the context of economic situation. This text describes the most important financial crises that took place in the past. After that authors passes on a detailed analysis of the actual corona-crisis and the way that it affects the economy globally. The main goal of this...