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Search results for: EUROPE, DERECHO, SQUALL LINES, THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS, NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION/FORECASTING
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Derecho Evolving from a Mesocyclone—A Study of 11 August 2017 Severe Weather Outbreak in Poland: Event Analysis and High-Resolution Simulation
PublicationThis study documents atmospheric conditions, development, and evolution of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 11 August 2017 in Poland. The emphasis is on analyzing system morphology and highlighting the importance of a mesovortex in producing the most significant wind damages. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) had a remarkable intensity and was one of the most impactful convective storms in the history...
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Operational Enhancement of Numerical Weather Prediction with Data from Real-time Satellite Images
PublicationNumerical weather prediction (NWP) is a rapidly expanding field of science, which is related to meteorology, remote sensing and computer science. Authors present methods of enhancing WRF EMS (Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System) weather prediction system using data from satellites equipped with AMSU sensor (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit). The data is acquired with Department of Geoinformatics’ ground...
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Wind resource assessment and energy yield prediction for the small wind turbine on the Szubieniczne Hill
PublicationThe goal of this study is to preliminary assess the wind resources on the Szubieniczne Hill in order to predict the annual energy production for planned small wind turbine. The analyzed site is located close to the Gdańsk University of Technology campus, in complex urban environment additionally surrendered by forested hills. The assessment is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations which allow to evaluate the wind energy potential...
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An Intelligent Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks
PublicationIn this paper, an intelligent approach to the Short-Term Wind Power Prediction (STWPP) problem is considered, with the use of various types of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The impact of the prediction time horizon length on accuracy, and the influence of temperature on prediction effectiveness have been analyzed. Three types of DNNs have been implemented and tested, including: CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), GRU (Gated Recurrent...
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Numerical weather prediction - data fusion to GIS systems and potential applications
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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AN EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF AN INNOVATIVE VERTICAL-AXIS WIND TURBINE
PublicationThis paper introduces the innovative modification of the Savonius wind turbine being able to significantly increase efficiency in comparison with the classic design. This innovative design is equipped with a stator directing the flow. The presence of the stator increases the active surface area and generates higher torques acting on a shaft. Additionally, it makes it possible to take better advantage of wind energy and compensate...
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Ship weather routing optimization with dynamic constraints based on reliable synchronous roll prediction
PublicationShip routing process taking into account weather conditions is a constrained multi-objective optimization problem and it should consider various optimization criteria and constraints. Formulation of a stability-related, dynamic route optimization constraint is presented in this paper. One of the key objectives of a cross ocean sailing is finding a compromise between ship safety and economics of operation. This compromise should...
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Analysis of GNSS sensed precipitable water vapour and tropospheric gradients during the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017
PublicationNowadays, one of the techniques that meets the increasing requirements of meteorologist in terms of monitoring of severe weather events is global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), which can provide information about the tropospheric state independently of the weather conditions and even in real time. In this paper we present the usage of GNSS sensed tropospheric data to monitor sudden and intense weather events. Our analyses...
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Numerical investigation on the performance of a small counter-rotating wind turbine
PublicationThe article presents the results of the investigation on the performance of a small counter-rotating wind turbine. The wind turbine has been simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics methods. Actuator Line Model has been successfully used to represent rotors in the computational domain. A parametric study has been carried out, taking into account changes in the tip speed ratio of the rotors while maintaining a constant distance...
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NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF HULL HYDRODYNAMIC DERIVATIVES IN SHIP MANOUVERING PREDICTION
PublicationOperating in crowded waterways pose a risk of accidents and disasters due to maneuvering limitations of the ship. In order to predict ship’s maneuvering characteristics at the design stage, model tests are often executed as the most accurate prediction tool. Two approaches can be distinguished here: free running model tests and numerical simulations based on planar motion model with the use of hydrodynamic derivatives obtained...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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Investigating the Impact of Weather Conditions and Time of Day on Traffic Flow Characteristics
PublicationAdverse weather such as rain, snow, and fog may significantly reduce visibility or change adhesion properties and, as a consequence, affect drivers’ sense of safety, driving comfort, and their reaction to a changing driving environment (i.e., lower speed and increased headways). The changed behavior of individual drivers affects both traffic flow characteristics, that is, average speed and headways, and parameters related to highway...
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Control of the wind turbine generator
PublicationWind power system consists of two main parts: wind turbine and electrical generator. Wind turbine converts the energy of the flowing air into mechanical energy, next generator converts this energy into electrical energy that is sent to the power system. These two processes should be realized with maximum efficiency and the following requirements for the control system can be formulated: opti-mal wind power conversion, compensation...
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Wind Conditions in Urban Layout – Numerical and Experimental Research
PublicationThis paper presents research which compares the numerical and the experimental results for different cases of airflow around a few urban layouts. The study is concerned mostly with the analysis of parameters, such as pressure and velocity fields, which are essential in the building industry. Numerical simulations have been performed by the commercial software Fluent, with the use of a few different turbulence models, including...
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Prediction of Weld Deformations by Numerical Methods - Review
PublicationThe welding process is the basic technique of joining in the shipbuilding industry. This method generates welding distortions that cause a lot of problems during the manufacturing process due to both the time and cost of straightening as well as their influence on later stages of production. Proper preparation of welding processes plays a growing role in the shipbuilding industry and the development of calculating tools is being...
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Method of lines for physiologically structured models with diffusion
PublicationWe deal with a size-structured model with diffusion. Partial differential equations are approximated by a large system of ordinary differential equations. Due to a maximum principle for this approximation method its solutions preserve positivity and boundedness. We formulate theorems on stability of the method of lines and provide suitable numerical experiments.
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NUMERICAL MODEL QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND TURBINE SUPPORTING STRUCTURE BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL DATA
PublicationAs a structure degrades some changes in its dynamical behavior can be observed, and inversely, observation and evaluation of these dynamical changes of the structure can provide information of structural state of the object. Testing of the real structure, besides of being costly, can cover only limited working states. It is particularly considerable in case of hardly accessible, and randomly/severely dynamically loaded offshore...
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Multi-objective Weather Routing with Customised Criteria and Constraints
PublicationThe paper presents a weather routing algorithm utilising a multi-objective optimisation with constraints, namely the Multi-objective Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA). In the proposed approach weather route recommendations can be made simultaneously e.g. for passage time, fuel consumption and safety of passage by means of Pareto optimisation. The sets of criteria and constraints in the optimisation process are fully...
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Numerical Estimation of Hull Hydrodynamic Derivatives in Ship Maneuvering Prediction
PublicationPrediction of the maneuvering characteristics of the ship at the design stage can be done by means of model tests, computational simulations or a combination of both. The model tests can be realized as direct simulation of the standard maneuvers with the free running model, which gives the most accurate results, but is also the least affordable as it requires very large tank or natural lake, as well as complex equipment of the...
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The Impact of Weather on Traffic Speed in Urban Area
PublicationThe issue of the impact of weather conditions on trip speed of vehicles has been studied for a long time and it is still the subject of many scientific researches. The impact of atmospheric conditions on the speed with which drivers drive their vehicles seems to be obvious. Good weather conditions, sunny weather with good visibility surely provokes higher speed while rainfall, wind...
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Weather Hazard Avoidance in Modeling Safety of Motor-Driven Ship for Multicriteria Weather Routing
PublicationWeather routing methods find the most suitable ocean?s route for a vessel, taking into account changeable weather conditions and navigational constraints. In the multicriteria approach based on the evolutionary SPEA algorithm one is able to consider a few constrained criteria simultaneously. The approach applied for a ship with hybrid propulsions has already been presented by one of the authors on previous TransNav?2009. This time...
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numerical prediction of vortex generated by hydrofoil
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wyniki obliczeń programami Fluent i Comet dla płata śruby napędowej. Pola prędkości oraz wirowość za płatem porównano z wynikami pomiarów (LDA- Laser Doppler Anemometry) w tunelu kawitacyjnym Centrum Techik Okrętowych (CTO). Przedstawiono wpływ adaptacji siatki wg różnych kryteriów (lokalnej wirowości lub prędkości) na zgodność wyników obliczeń z danymi eksperymentalnymi.
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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Prediction of cast-in-place concrete strength of the extradosed bridge deck based on temperature monitoring and numerical simulations
PublicationThe work is devoted to the implementation of a monitoring system for high performance concrete embedded in the span of an extradosed bridge deck using a modified maturity method augmented by numerical simulations conducted by the authors’ FEM code. The paper presents all research stages of bridge construction and considers the conclusions drawn from the results of laboratory tests, field measurements, and numerical calculations....
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FORECASTING BIOGAS FORMATION IN LANDFILLS
Publication: The aim of the present research was to develop a mathematical model for estimating the amount of viscous gas generated as a function of weather conditions. Due to the lack of models for predicting gas formation caused by sudden changes in weather conditions in the literature, such a model was developed in this study using the parameters of landfills recorded for over a year. The effect of temperature on landfill gas production...
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Optimization of Wireless Networks for Resilience to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationIn this chapter, we consider how adverse weather conditions such as rain or fog affect the performance of wireless networks, and how to optimize these networks so as to make them robust to these conditions. We first show how to analyze the weather conditions in order to make them useful for network optimization modelling. Using an example realistic network, we show how to optimize two types of wireless networks: free-space optical...
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Wind tunnel experiments and numerical analysis of the wind load on double-shell cylindrical, vertical tanks
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wyniki badań modelowych w tunelu aerodynamicznym oraz symulacji komputerowych obciążenia wiatrem pionowych, walcowych zbiorników dwupłaszczowych z dachem pływającym. W badaniach modelowych analizowano wpływ rozstawu między płaszczami zbiornika na wartość i rozkład współczynnika ciśnienia na płaszczach oraz dachu pływającym. Wyniki symulacji komputerowych przeprowadzonych w programie Fluent porównano z wynikami...
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Enhancing Resilience of FSO Networks to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationOptical wireless networks realized by means of gigabit optical wireless communication (OWC) systems are becoming, in a variety of applications, an important alternative, or a complementary solution, to their fiber-based counterparts. However, performance of the OWC systems can be considerably degraded in periods of unfavorable weather conditions, such as heavy fog, which temporarily reduce the effective capacity of the network....
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Areas of Updraft Air Motion in an Idealised Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Different Floe Size Distributions
PublicationPresented dataset is part of a numerical modelling study focusing on the analysis of the influence of sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) on the horizontal and vertical structure of convection in the atmosphere. The total area and spatial arrangement of the up-drafts indicates that the FSD affects the total moisture content and the values of area averaged turbulent fluxes in the model domain. In fact, while convective updrafts...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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A city and a wind farm. Landscape perspective
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to present the problems of the location of the wind farms in close neighbourhood to the historical cities, and the ways to minimize the potential landscape threats. The production of clean energy is obligatory in EU. In spite of how positive to the environment the wind energy production is, it may cause negative effects. The results of landscape studies of two towns in Poland prove that the location of such...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublicationThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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Numerical method of lines for first order partial differential functional equations
PublicationUdowodniono zbieżność numerycznej metody prostych dla równań różniczkowofunkcyjnych o pochodnych cząstkowych pierwszego rzędu i ich rozwiązań klasycznych określonych na piramidzie Haara. Zastosowano metodę nierówności różniczkowych.
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Prediction of the fatigue lifetime of PUR structural elements using a combined experimental-numerical approach
PublicationThis paper presents a method for estimating the fatigue life of polyurethane elastomeric components. A rubber replacement - polyurethane of hardness 80ShA commonly used in vibration damping systems, for example, in motor vehicle suspensions, was used for the study. A metal-rubber bushing component was selected for analysis, and numerical analysis was carried out along with a fatigue model proposal based on a modification of the...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublicationSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublicationThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublicationEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublicationForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...