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Search results for: bayes methods , decision support systems , engineering management , risk analysis
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Selected problems of decision making modelling in power engineering
PublicationThe paper presents the selected problems of decision making modelling in power engineering specially investment risk evaluation methods. The proposed model can be used in the range programming the development and investing process in power engineering. Decision making problems in power engineering and the evaluation of investment effectiveness in particular are closely related to modelling which relatively accurately reflects...
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Risk Diagnosis and Management with BBN for Civil Engineering Projects during Construction and Operation
PublicationThe authors demonstrate how expert knowledge about the construction and operation phases combined with monitoring data can be utilized for the diagnosis and management of risks typical to large civil engineering projects. The methodology chosen for estimating the probabilities of risk elements is known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). Using a BBN model one can keep on updating the risk event probabilities as the new evidence...
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Expert systems in assessing the construction process safety taking account of the risk of disturbances
PublicationThe objective of the paper is to present the issue of safety manage-ment during the construction process. Threats in the form of disturb-ances may occur in the preparatory phase, during the execution of the construction project and also during its operational use. The arti-cle presents the concept of applying the methodology based, among others, on Learning Bayesian Networks, Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine,...
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Waste management in the mining industry of metals ores, coal, oil and natural gas - A review
PublicationWaste generated due to mining activity poses a serious issue due to the large amounts generated, even up to 65 billion tons per year, and is often associated with the risk posed by its storage and environmental management. This work aims to review waste management in the mining industry of metals ores, coal, oil and natural gas. It includes an analysis and discussion on the possibilities for reuse of certain types of wastes generated...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublicationIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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A ship domain-based model of collision risk for near-miss detection and Collision Alert Systems
PublicationThe paper presents a new model of ship collision risk, which utilises a ship domain concept and the related domain-based collision risk parameters. An encounter is here described by five variables representing: degree of domain violation (DDV), relative speed of the two vessels, combination of the vessels’ courses, arena violations and encounter complexity. As for the first three variables, their values can be directly computed...
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Functional safety and cyber security analysis for life cycle management of industrial control systems in hazardous plants and oil port critical infrastructure including insurance
PublicationThis report addresses selected methodological aspects of proactive reliability, functional safety and cyber security management in life cycle of industrial automation and control systems (IACS) in hazardous plants and oil port critical installations based on the analysis of relevant hazards / threats and evaluation of related risks. In addition the insurance company point of view has been also considered, because nowadays the insurer,...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Environmental risk- based ranking of solvents by the combination of multimedia model and multi-criteria decision analysis
PublicationA novel procedure for assessing the environmental risk related to solvents emissions has been developed. The assessment of risk is based on hazard and exposure detailed investigations. The potential exposure related to different environmental phases is calculated with basic multimedia model, that gives the percentage distribution of solvent in environmental compartments as a result. Specific hazards– toxicological, environmental...
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublicationRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis of Cinan Feizuo Flood Protection Area, Huaihe River Basin
PublicationThis study evaluated multiple aspects of flood risks and effects on the Cinan Feizuo flood protection area in the Huaihe River basin. Flooding remains a leading problem for infrastructure, especially in urban, residential areas of the region. Effective flood modeling for urbanized floodplains is challenging, but MIKE (ID-2D) is paramount for analyzing and quantifying the risk in the vulnerable region. The Saint-Venant equation...
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Navigational decision support system during approach manoeuvre in emergency STS transfer operation
PublicationThe paper is concerned with the problem of safe trajectory planning for approaching during emergency STS (Ship to Ship) transfer operation with oil spill. The safe trajectory means that the way points does not cross in the area of the environment with the static and dynamic obstacles and at the same time satisfies ship's stopping and speed deceleration performance. The evolutionary path planning algorithm is used to determine trajectory...
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Selecting cost-effective risk control option for advanced maritime operations; Integration of STPA-BN-Influence diagram
PublicationAdvanced maritime operations, such as remote pilotage, are vulnerable to new emergent risks due to increased system complexity and a multitude of interactions. Thus, maritime researchers this decade have combined Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to effectively manage these risks. Although these methods are effective in identifying hazards and analyzing risk levels, none of the STPA-BN studies...
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Framework for RIDM within functional safety management process
PublicationThe functional safety management in life cycle is a complex process starting with identifying hazards and defining safety-related functions (SRFs) with risk assessment oriented at determining the safety integrity level. Another element of such life cycle is a verification of required SIL for designed safety-related system which implements safety function. Due to complexity of the problem, to overcome difficulties in safety-related...
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublicationThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublicationThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Functional safety and reliability analysis methodoloogy for hazardous industrial plants
PublicationThis monograph is devoted to current problems and methods of the functional safety and reliability analyses of the programmable control and protection systems for industrial hazardous plants. The results of these analyses are useful in the process of safety management in life cycle, for effective reducing relevant risks at the design stage, and then controlling these risks during the operation of given installation. The methodology...
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The Selection of Anchoring System for Floating Houses by Means of AHP Method
PublicationThis paper indicates and analyses the use of anchoring systems, such as mooring piles, booms, mooring cables, and deadweight anchors with additional elastic connectors, which are the most frequently applied by the producers of floating houses. The selection of the most advantageous anchoring system is complicated and requires the application of quantitative and qualitative data and methods. This publication presents the results...
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MODELOWANIE WYBRANYCH MIAR BEZPIECZEŃSTWA RUCHU NA DŁUGICH ODCINKACH DRÓG
PublicationKażdego roku w wypadkach drogowych na świecie życie traci prawie 1,3 mln osób, co oznacza prawie niemal 3 tys. ofiar dziennie,. Tyle samo zabitych w ruchu drogowym odnotowujemy rocznie w Polsce. Ekonomiczne straty w wyniku tych wypadków wynoszą ok. 2% światowego PKB. W roku 2010 Organizacja Narodów Zjednoczonych (ONZ) przyjęła rezolucję pt. „Dekada działań na rzecz bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego na lata 2011 – 2020” rozpoczynającą...
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Hazard Control in Industrial Environments: A Knowledge-Vision-Based Approach
PublicationThis paper proposes the integration of image processing techniques (such as image segmentation, feature extraction and selection) and a knowledge representation approach in a framework for the development of an automatic system able to identify, in real time, unsafe activities in industrial environments. In this framework, the visual information (feature extraction) acquired from video-camera images and other context based gathered...